Download (AFHSC) Predictive Surveillance - Armed Forces Pest Management

Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center
Vision and Mission
• Vision: to provide relevant, timely, actionable, and
comprehensive health surveillance information and support to
the Armed Forces for military and military-associated
populations
• Mission: to promote, maintain, or enhance the health of
military and military-associated populations
– Acquire, analyze and interpret, recommend, and disseminate
information
– Develop, refine and improve standardized surveillance methods
– Serve as focal point for sharing health surveillance products,
expertise and information
– Delineate roles, responsibilities, and mutually supporting
relationships among the Armed Forces health surveillance
activities
Feb 9 2010
UNCLASSIFIED
AFHSC Operating Structure
DIRECTOR
Armed Forces Health
Surveillance Center
Liaisons
USPHS
DHS
WHO
Dep Dir, AFHSC/
Director, GEIS
AFHSC HQ Support
Science Advisor
Executive Officer
Resource Mgr
Chief, Information Officer
Chief, Data and Analysis
Data
Management
Epidemiology/
Analysis
Chief, Communications, Standards, &
Training
Surveillance Operations
& Communications
Surveillance Standards
& Training
DoD Serum
Repository
Feb 3 2010
UNCLASSIFIED
Chief, GEIS Operations
AI/PI
Surveillance
GEIS
Core
Division of GEIS Operations
(DOD GEIS)
• Vision: Successfully develop, implement, support, and evaluate an
integrated global emerging infectious disease surveillance and response
system that supports the AFHSC and promotes preparedness in US
Forces, the Military Health System and the Global Public Health
community.
• Mission: Contribute to Force Health Protection and Global Public
Health by centrally coordinating a global system of partners that
conduct emerging infectious disease surveillance and response; training
and capacity building; research, innovation and integration; and
assessment of value added in a timely, efficient, comprehensive and
communicative manner.
“Partnering in the Fight against Emerging Infections”
Feb 9 2010
UNCLASSIFIED
AFHSC/DOD-GEIS
Strategic Goals and Priority Pillars
RI = Respiratory
Infection
GI = Gastrointestinal
Infection
STI = Sexually
Transmitted
Infection
Feb 9 2010
STI
AR STI
FVBIDRO
GI
GI
RI
AR = Antimicrobial
Resistance
ARD
FVBI = Febrile and
Vector-borne
Infection
Force Health Protection
Surveillance and Response
Training and Capacity Building
Research, Innovation and Integration
Assessment and Communication of Value Added
UNCLASSIFIED
AFHSC Global Network
AFIP
WRAIR, NMRC
Germany
Korea
Egypt
Navy Hub
Air Force Hub
Thailand
Kenya
Peru
Indonesia
DOD’s Unique Assets – Overseas Presence with OCONUS Labs
Feb 9 2010
UNCLASSIFIED
Predictive Surveillance Benefit
WHO World Health Report 2007
Feb 9 2010
UNCLASSIFIED
Predictive Surveillance Model
Advisory on emerging
eco-climate
conditions conducive
to outbreaks
Feb 9 2010
Vector signal of
critical-point
detection for
pathogen
transmission
Alert on vector
transmission threat
that promotes
targeted, preemptive vector
and/or animal
interventions
Information
synthesis
Information
synthesis
Eco-climate anomaly
critical-point
detection and analysis
Insect vector
characterization and
pathogen transmission
surveillance
Animal host/reservoir
characterization and
pathogen transmission
surveillance
Human conditions/activities
characterization for
association with disease
outbreaks; Human case
surveillance
Animal signal of
critical-point
detection for
pathogen
transmission
Community or clinic
signal of critical-point
detection of human
infection
Prediction of human
risk based on animal
disease and
transmission threat to
promote targeted
pre-emptive public
health interventions
UNCLASSIFIED
Information
synthesis
Eco-climate trend and
condition characterization
b
and surveillance
Early alert of human
disease outbreak, for
timely control
interventions
8
Feb 9 2010
UNCLASSIFIED
Weeks/Months
Human illness
Animal/reservoir
illness
Competent vector
crosses abundance
threshold
Convergence of
Vector environment
/Climate
requirements
Eco/climate
event or anomaly
Human outbreak and response
Human case
reported
Threat
predicition
Animal/reservoir
case reported
Risk alert
Vector
detected
Weather/vector
surveillance
Risk
advisory
Eco/climate
analysis
Action
Event
Retrospective data
Predictive Surveillance Timeline
Continuous Remote Sensing
Eco/Climate Anomalies
Feb 9 2010
UNCLASSIFIED
A Anyamba, NASA
Ground Truthing
Unclassified
Feb 9 2010
J Small, NASA
Ground Truthing
USAMRU-K Mosquito samplings sites
T Klein, J Grieco, A Anyamba,K Linthicum
Feb 9 2010
UNCLASSIFIED
Predictive Surveillance
RVF Outbreaks 2006-2008
Feb 9 2010
Country /
Region
Alert to
Outbreak
(months)
2008
South Africa
2–3
2007:
Sudan
4-5
2006:
East Africa
UNCLASSIFIED
4
In press
A Anyamba, NASA
Refining the RVF Model
Climatic Factors: heavy and widespread
rainfall
Anyamba et al, PNAS, 106(3)955 (2009).
Coastal Flood Plain
Aedes species followed
by Culex in large number
Culex species –
Important secondary
vector in RVF
Feb 9 2010
UNCLASSIFIED
14
Mosquito Map
Taxonomic
+
Point occurrence
+
Environmental
Mosquito
Distribution
Models
Foley, et al. J Med Ento, 46 (3) 2009
Feb 9 2010
UNCLASSIFIED
Animal Reservoir
Feb 9 2010
UNCLASSIFIED
Human Disease Surveillance
Data sources
Data management
detection
reporting
OUTBREAK
Absenteeism
RESPONSE
Radiology
Diagnostic
Labs
Poison Control
Prescriptions
Over the
Counter Nurse
Call
Sales
Center
Physician
Office
Visits
S Lewis, JHU/APL
Feb 9 2010
UNCLASSIFIED
AFHSC Template
Feb 9 2010
UNCLASSIFIED
1
Acknowledgements
NASA-GSFC: A Anyamba, J Small, J Pinzon, CJ Tucker, E Pak
USDA: K Linthicum
WRBU: D Foley, P Rueda, R Wilkerson
USUHS: P Masuoka, J Grieco, N Achee
USAMRU-K: J Cook, D Schnabel
KEMRI: R Sang
AFRIMS: J Richardson, J Pavlin
65th Medical Brigade: T Klein
JHU/APL: S Lewis, B Feighner, A Buczac
Feb 9 2010
UNCLASSIFIED
1