Download Castle Milk Moorit Breeding Programme

Castle Milk Moorit Breeding
Programme
January 2008 Update
Progress to date
•
•
•
•
The data quality has improved significantly in 2008 probably as a result of the members
response to the Combined Flock Book census but also an increased awareness of the need to
provide updates when sheep die or are sold for meat.
One of the results of the better data is an apparent reduction in absolute numbers. It was
always suspected that a number of the sheep shown in the flock book (including some
significant individuals), were actually dead and /or non-breeding, therefore the fact that
even with this data correction the trends are moving in the desired direction is especially
encouraging. This cleaned data should give you a much better base for analysis and decision
making going forward.
The awareness of the programme is now fairly wide spread in the membership and is actively
influencing choice of rams.
Conclusions are shown after each data set but highlights are:
– The number of genetically significant rams has increased markedly for line 1. In addition
the total number of significant rams vs the rest has increased.
– The number of significant line 1 ewes has increased and the % genetic representation
across all ewes has increased for both line 1 and line 2.
– Due to the improved data the absolute numbers should now be much more accurate.
The % of significant sheep is beginning to level across the lines which was one of our
goals plus the % of these rarer gene pools are increasing (albeit slowly) across all three
lines.
Data Assumptions
•
•
The latest analysis in this pack is based on the Online Combined Flock book data as
at 15th January 2008; the previous analysis in the trends are May 2007 and June
2006
To make the data as meaningful as possible we have assumed the following for all
3 analyses:
– Only sheep with status ‘Alive’ and gender F or M are part of the breeding flock
– Unregistered, birth notified animals born over 4 years ago are dead or
permanently non-breeding
– Animals over 10 years old are non-breeding
• A review data in June 2007 shows that out of 130 ewes over 10 years
shown as alive only 5 had lambs notified in 2006. A further check in
January 2008 shows that out of 27 alive ewes over 10 years only 2 had
lambs notified in 2007 (NB 2 marked as dead also had notified lambs!).
•
‘Significant‘ is:
• Greater than
0.05%
line 1
genetics
• Greater than
1%
line 2
genetics
• Greater than
2%
line 3
genetics
Ram Data
Number of significant rams vs ‘the rest’
Line 1
Line 2
Line 3
Rest
2006
29
34
38
224
2007
45
46
49
287
2008
47
45
33
233
Number of significant rams as % of total
ram flock
Line 1
Line 2
Line 3
Rest
2006
8.9%
10.5%
11.7%
68.9%
2007
10.5%
10.8%
11.5%
67.2%
2008
13.4%
12.8%
9.4%
66.2%
Ram Data
% of line genetics in the ram flock
(this represents the % per sheep should the line
genetics be spread evenly across all rams)
% line 1
% line 2
% line 3
2006
0.0309
0.6660
0.8230
2007
0.0320
0.6842
0.9057
2008
0.0283
0.6935
0.9621
Conclusion
The number of genetically significant rams has increased markedly for line 1 (where we have focused), and held for
line 2, however line 3 ram stock seems to have suffered the most from the data clean-up with absolute numbers
falling however the genetic % per ram has increased for line 3. In addition the total number of significant rams vs
the rest has increased (119 out of a flock of 352, with 6 being significant in more than 1 line).
The data clean-up and better reporting by the members has left us with a more accurate picture and a better base
to move forward therefore the trend from 2007 to 2008 should be judged in the light of the data corrections as well
as the breeding programme significance.
Ewe data
Number of significant ewes vs ‘the rest’
Line 1
Line 2
Line 3
Rest
2006
110
201
211
895
2007
122
207
227
1121
2008
124
147
153
860
Number of significant ewes as % of total
ewe flock
Line 1
Line 2
Line 3
Rest
2006
7.8%
14.2%
14.9%
63.2%
2007
7.3%
12.3%
13.5%
66.8%
2008
9.8%
11.7%
12.1%
68.2%
Ewe data
% of line genetics in the total ewe flock
(this represents the % per sheep should the line
genetics be spread evenly across all ewes)
% line 1
% line 2
% line 3
2006
0.0204
0.6756
0.8860
2007
0.0199
0.6693
0.8972
2008
0.0238
0.6710
0.8912
Conclusion
The number of ewes overall and the number of older significant ewes has been most affected by the
data clean-up – the number of ewes marked as alive and under 10 years has decreased from 1677 to
1261 this is almost certainly due to the CFB census. Inspite of this overall decrease the number of
significant line 1 ewes has increased and the % genetic representation across all ewes has increased
for both line 1 and line 2.
Total flock data (1613 sheep as at 15/1/08)
Number of significant sheep vs ‘the rest’
Line 1
Line 2
Line 3
Rest
2006
139
235
249
1119
2007
167
253
276
1408
2008
171
192
186
1093
Number of significant sheep as % of total
flock
Line 1
Line 2
Line 3
Rest
2006
8.0%
13.5%
14.3%
64.2%
2007
7.9%
12.0%
13.1%
66.9%
2008
10.6%
11.9%
11.5%
67.8%
Total flock data (1613 sheep as at 15/1/08)
% of line genetics across the total flock
(this represents the % per sheep should the line
genetics be spread evenly across the whole flock)
% line 1
% line 2
% line 3
2006
0.0224
0.6738
0.8749
2007
0.0224
0.6723
0.8988
2008
0.0248
0.6759
0.9067
Conclusion
Due to the improved data the absolute numbers should now be much more accurate. The % of
significant sheep is beginning to level across the lines which was one of our goals plus the % of these
rarer gene pools are increasing (albeit slowly) across all three lines.