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DISASTER PREPAREDNESS A KEY ELEMENT OF BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA A FOCUS ON MONITOTING SYSTEMS, PREDICTIONS, FORECASTS, WARNING SYSTEMS, AND EVACUATION A PART OF DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PURPOSE: Predictions and forecasts of natural hazards communicated effectively through warning systems facilitate development of city evacuation plans to move people out of harm’s way RISK ASSESSMENT •NATURAL HAZARDS •INVENTORY •VULNERABILITY •LOCATION ACCEPTABLE RISK RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK GOAL: DISASTER RESILIENCE DATA BASES AND INFORMATION COMMUNITY FOUR PILLARS OF RESILIENCE HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS •PREPAREDNESS •PROTECTION •EMERGENCY RESPONSE •RECOVERY IENCE DISASTERS OCCUR WHEN--A COMMUNITY’S PUBLIC POLICIES ALLOW IT TO BE … UN—PREPARED GLOBAL GOAL: FROM UN—PREPARED TO A STATE OF PREPAREDNESS FOR ALL CITIES AND ALL NATURAL HAZARDS NATURAL HAZARDS FOR WHICH EVACUATION IS TYPICAL FLOODS GOAL: MOVE PEOPLE OUT OF HARM’S WAY HIGH BENEFIT/COST FOR SAVING LIVES, BUT LOW BEMEFIT/COST FOR PROTECTING PROPERTY HURRICANES TYPHOONS TSUNAMIS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS WILDFIRES NOTE: EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION IS NOT YET FEASIBLE; SO EVACUATION IS NOT AN OPTION TO GET PEOPLE OUT OF HARM’S WAY FOR EARTHQUAKES MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES, PREDICTIONS, FORECASTS, AND WARNING SYSTEMS ARE A VITAL PART OF EVERY CITY’S EVACUATION PLAN TO EVACUATE OR NOT TO EVACUATE FOR FLOODS FLOODS IN S. CALIFORNIA: A REASON FOR AN EFFECTIVE EVACUATION PLAN • WHICH RIVER (S) WILL OVERFLOW ITS BANKS, DIKES, OR LEVEES? • WHEN? • THE DISASTER AGENTS? • BUILT ENVIRONMENT ELEMENTS IN FLOODPLAIN? • EXPECTED DAMAGE? • EXPECTED SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS? FLOODS IN CHINA: A REASON FOR AN EFFECTIVE EVACUATION PLAN • WHICH RIVER (S) WILL OVERFLOW ITS BANKS, DIKES, OR DAMS? • WHEN? • THE DISASTER AGENTS? • BUILT ENVIRONMENT ELEMENTS IN FLOODPLAIN? • EXPECTED DAMAGE? • EXPECTED SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS? IF YOU CHOOSE NOT TO EVACUATE, YOU MUST BE PREPARED FOR THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH FLOODS CAUSES OF DAMAGE AND DISASTER LOSS OF FUNCTION OF STRUCTURES IN FLOODPLAIN INUNDATION INTERACTION WITH HAZARDOUS MATERIALS FLOODS CASE HISTORIES STRUCTURAL/CONTENTS DAMAGE FROM WATER WATER BORNE DISEASES (HEALTH PROBLEMS) EROSION AND MUDFLOWS CONTAMINATION OF GROUND WATER TO EVACUATE OR NOT TO EVACUATE FOR HURRICANES AND TYPHOONS HURRICANE ANDREW: A REASON FOR AN EFFECTIVE EVACUATION PLAN • WHERE WILL THE HURRICANE MAKE LANDFALL? • HOW BIG (CAT)? • THE DISASTER AGENTS? • VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? • EXPECTED DAMAGE? • EXPECTED SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS? TYPHOON TALAS: A REASON FOR AN EFFECTIVE EVACUATION PLAN • WHERE WILL THE TYPHOON MAKE LANDFALL? • HOW BIG (CAT)? • THE DISASTER AGENTS? • VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? • EXPECTED DAMAGE? • EXPECTED SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS? IF YOU CHOOSE NOT TO EVACUATE, YOU MUST BE PREPARED FOR THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANES AND TYPHOONS CAUSES OF DAMAGE WIND PENETRATING BUILDING ENVELOPE UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM FLYING DEBRIS HURRICANES TYPHOONS “DISASTER LABORATORIES” STORM SURGE IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN SITING PROBLEMS FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES TO EVACUATE OR NOT TO EVACUATE FOR TSUNAMIS TSUNAMI (JAPAN): A REASON FOR AN EFFECTIVE EVACUATION PLAN • WHERE WILL THE TSUNAMI OCCUR? • WHEN? • HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE? • THE DISASTER AGENTS? • VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? • EXPECTED DAMAGE? • EXPECTED SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS? TSUNAMIS • M 7 or larger earthquakes that occur on “the Pacific ring of fire” can cause: Tsunamis IF YOU CHOOSE NOT TO EVACUATE, YOU MUST BE PREPARED FOR THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH TSUNAMIS CAUSES OF DAMAGE/DISASTER HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF INCOMING WAVES INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE RUNUP VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE RUNUP TSUNAMIS CASE HISTORIES INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF BUILDINGS FLOODING NO WARNING, OR INADEQUATE WARNING PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF TSUNAMI TO EVACUATE OR NOT TO EVACUATE FOR VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS VOLCANIC ERUPTION (CHILE): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS • WHEN WILL THE ERUPTION OCCUR? • DURATION? • HOW BIG (VEI)? • THE DISASTER AGENTS? • VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? • EXPECTED DAMAGE? • EXPECTED SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS? MOUNT PINATUBO, THE PHILIPPINES: LARGE VERTICAL PLUMES AND LAHARS IF YOU CHOOSE NOT TO EVACUATE, YOU MUST BE PREPARED FOR THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS CAUSES OF DAMAGE/DISASTER PROXIMITY TO LATERAL BLAST IN PATH OF PYROCLASTIC FLOWS IN PATH OF FLYING DEBRIS (TEPHRA) VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS CASE HISTORIES IN PATH OF VOLCANIC ASH (AVIATION) IN PATH OF LAVA AND PYROCLASTIC FLOWS IN PATH OF LAHARS IGNORING WARNING TO EVACUATE TO EVACUATE OR NOT TO EVACUATE FOR WILDFIRES WILDFIRE (GREECE): A REASON FOR AN EFFECTIVE EVACUATION PLAN • WHEN AND WHY WILL THE WILDFIRE OCCUR? • LOCATION? • DURATION? • THE DISASTER AGENTS? • VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? • EXPECTED DAMAGE? • EXPECTED SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS? IF YOU CHOOSE NOT TO EVACUATE, YOU MUST BE PREPARED FOR THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH WILDFIRES CAUSES OF DAMAGE AND DISASTER LIGHTNING STRIKES MANMADE FIRES PROXIMITY OF URBAN AREA TO THE WILDLAND FIRE WILDFIRES DISASTER LABORATORIES WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION (DAY/NIGHT) DRYNESS HIGH TEMPERATURES LOCAL FUEL SUPPLY FROM A DISASTER SCENARIO TO EVACUATION TO PUBLIC POLICY A disaster scenario accelerates dialogue on the best ways to get people out of harm’s ways, and policies and plans for doing it when it counts most. EVACUATION PLANNING IS A “24/7” EFFORT • PREPAREDNESS (BE READY) • PROTECTION (BUILD TO WITHSTAND) • EMER. RESPONSE & RECOVERY (BOUNCE BACK) DISASTER RISK REDUCTION IS A “24/7” EFFORT • MONITORING (FACILITATES EARLY WARNING, EVACUATION, AND INTERVENTION TO PROTECT PEOPLE AND PROPERTY)