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Equilibrium & Changes in Supply and Demand Chapter 3-3 & 3-4 The Interaction of Supply and Demand • The English historian Thomas Carlyle once said: “Teach any parrot the words supply and demand and you’ve got an economist.” Equilibrium • Equilibrium is a concept in which opposing dynamic forces cancel each other out. Equilibrium • In a free market, the forces of supply and demand interact to determine equilibrium quantity and equilibrium price. Equilibrium • Equilibrium price – the price toward which the invisible hand drives the market. • Equilibrium quantity – the amount bought and sold at the equilibrium price. Market clearing price • The textbook also uses the term Market Clearing price for equilibrium price What Equilibrium Isn’t • Equilibrium isn’t a state of the world, it is a characteristic of a model. • Equilibrium isn’t inherently good or bad, it is simply a state in which dynamic pressures offset each other. The law of one price • Why do all sales and purchases in the market take place at the same price? the market price Suppose that a seller offered a potential buyer a price noticeably above what she knew other people to be paying. The buyer would clearly be better off walking away from this particular seller and trying someone else—unless the seller was prepared to offer a better deal. Conversely, a seller would not be willing to sell for significantly less than the amount he knew most buyers were paying; he would be better off waiting to get a more reasonable customer. Thus in any well-established, ongoing market, all sellers receive and all buyers pay approximately the same price. Excess Supply (surplus) • Excess supply – a surplus, the quantity supplied is greater than quantity demanded • Prices tend to fall. • Why? Excess Demand (shortage) • Excess demand – a shortage, the quantity demanded is greater than quantity supplied • Prices tend to rise. • Why? Price Adjusts • The greater the difference between quantity supplied and quantity demanded, the more pressure there is for prices to rise or fall. Price Adjusts • When quantity demanded equals quantity supplied, prices have no tendency to change. The Graphical Interaction of Supply and Demand Price (per DVD) Quantity Supplied Quantity Demanded Surplus (+) Shortage (-) $3.50 7 3 +4 $2.50 5 5 0 $1.50 3 7 -4 The Graphical Interaction of Supply and Demand $5.00 S Excess supply Price per DVD 4.00 3.50 A 3.00 E 2.50 C 2.00 1.50 Excess demand 1.00 1 D 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Quantity of DVDs supplied and demanded The Graphical Interaction of Supply and Demand • When price is $3.50 each, quantity supplied equals 7 and quantity demanded equals 3. • The excess supply of 4 pushes price down. The Graphical Interaction of Supply and Demand • When price is $1.50 each, quantity supplied equals 3 and quantity demanded equals 7. • The excess demand of 4 pushes price up. The Graphical Interaction of Supply and Demand • When price is $2.50 each, quantity supplied equals 5 and quantity demanded equals 5. • There is no excess supply or excess demand, so price will not rise or fall. Shifts in Supply and Demand • Shifts in either supply or demand change equilibrium price and quantity. Increase in Demand • An increase in demand creates excess demand at the original equilibrium price. • The excess demand pushes price upward until a new higher price and quantity are reached. Increase in Demand S0 B $2.50 Excess demand A 2.25 D0 0 D1 8 9 10 Quantity of DVDs (per week) Decrease in Supply • A decrease in supply creates excess demand at the original equilibrium price. • The excess demand pushes price upward until a new higher price and lower quantity are reached. Decrease in Supply S1 S0 C $2.50 2.25 B Excess demand A D0 0 8 9 10 Quantity of DVDs (per week) Florida Freeze • The crop-damaging freeze shifted the supply curve to the left. • At P0 quantity demanded > quantity supplied. P1 • Price rose to P1 until the quantity demanded P0 equaled the quantity supplied. S1 S0 Excess Demand D Q1 Q0 Coffee Beans • The supply of coffee increased as new growers entered the market, technology improved, and weather was P0 favorable. Price decreased to P1. P1 • Coffee growers attempted to increase demand and raise price to P0 with a marketing campaign. S0 S1 D1 D0 Q0 Q1 Burkhas in Afghanistan S P0 P1 D0 Excess Supply D1 Q1 Q0 • Once the Taliban was ousted, demand for burkhas fell as many women quit wearing them. • At P0 quantity supplied > quantity demanded. • Price fell to P1 until quantity demanded = quantity supplied. PITFALLS • Which curve is it anyway? • Which curve is shifting? • Look at the movement in Price and Quantity. • Are they moving in the same or the opposite directions? Review of Changes in Supply and Demand No change in Supply shifts supply out No change No change. in demand Demand shifts out Demand shifts in Supply shifts in Price falls; Price rises; Quantity rises. Quantity falls. Price rises; Quantity rises; Price rises; Quantity could Quantityrises. Price could be high or lower. rise or fall. Price falls; Quantity falls; Price falls; Quantity falls Quantity could Price could rise or fall. rise or fall. Simultaneous Shifts in Supply and Demand We can make the following predictions about the outcome when the supply and demand curves shift simultaneously: Supply Increases Supply Decreases Demand Increases Price: ? Quantity: up Price: up Quantity: ? Demand Decreases Price: Price: ? down Quantity: Quantity: ? down The Limitations Of Supply And Demand Analysis • Sometimes supply and demand are interconnected. • Other things don't remain constant. The Limitations Of Supply And Demand Analysis • All actions have a multitude of ripple and possible feedback effects. • The ripple effect is smaller when the goods are a small percentage of the entire economy. The Limitations Of Supply And Demand Analysis • The other-things-constant assumption is likely not to hold when the goods represent a large percentage of the entire economy. The Fallacy of Composition • The fallacy of composition is the false assumption that what is true for a part will also be true for the whole. – Chapter 6 will discuss this in more detail The Fallacy of Composition • The fallacy of composition is of central relevance to macroeconomics. – In macroeconomics, the other-thingsconstant assumption, central to microeconomic supply/demand analysis, cannot hold. This is why some of you have a hard time accepting this model