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Managerial Finance MB-664 Economic Concept Overview MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 1 Today’s Decision Climate • • • • • • Global economy Little or no information lags Sources of risk in making decisions Decisions at the enterprise level Decisions related to expansion Importance of quality information in making decisions MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 2 Market Forces MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 3 Expected Commodity Price $7 D S D = f(Po, PYD, Px, W, …) D=S $4 S = f(Po, MIC, …) $1 10 MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 4 Implications for the Firm Price The Firm The Market D S Price ATC MC PE QE Quantity MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 OMAX 5 Implications for the Firm Price The Firm The Market D S Price ATC MC PE Profit QE Quantity MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 OMAX 6 Knowing Your Elasticities • Market demand related elasticities • Market supply related elasticities • Concept of price flexibility • Application and implications MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 7 Inelastic Market Demand Price %∆P>%∆Q Elastic Market Demand Price %∆P<%∆Q ∆P ∆P Identical shift in the supply curve ∆Q Quantity MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 ∆Q 8 Concept of Price Flexibility Price EP = - .25 If the own price elasticity of demand is equal to .25, then PF = 1/-.25 = -4.0 -4% +1% Quantity This means that if the supply coming onto the market is expected to increase by one percent, the price you can expect to receive for your products will fall by 4 percent. MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 9 Short Run Input Decisions MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 10 Input Decision for Variable Inputs D C B E F G 5 H I J MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 11 Least Cost Decision Rule This decision rule holds a larger The least cost combination of labor for and capital in out example also occurs where: number of inputs as well… MPPLABOR ÷ wage rate = MPPCAPITAL ÷ rental rate MPP per dollar spent on labor = MPP per dollar spent on capital MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 12 Least Cost Input Choice for 100 Units 7 60 MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 13 What Happens if Wage Rate Declines? As a consequence, the firm would desire to use more labor and less capital… MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 14 What Inputs to Use for a Specific Budget? MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 Page 15141 Short Run Enterprise Decisions MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 16 Combination of Products The profit maximizing combination of two products is found where the slope of the production possibilities frontier (PPF) is equal to the slope of the iso-revenue curve, or where: Canned fruit Canned vegetables Slope of an PPF curve Price of vegetables = – Price of fruit Slope of isorevenue line MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 17 Profit Maximization Product Choice Output combinations lying beyond the PPF exceed the firm’s existing capacity. The firm would have to expand its capacity and labor force to achieve this output. MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 18 Profit Maximization Product Choice Canned fruit Canned vegetables = – Price of vegetables Price of fruit Shifting line AB out in a parallel fashion holds both prices constant at their current level MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 19 Profit Maximization Product Choice The firm would shift from point M on the PPF to point N as a result of the decline in the price of fruit. That is, to maximize profit, the firm would cut back its production of canned fruit and produce more canned vegetables. MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 20 Long Run Capacity Decisions MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 21 Growth of the firm…How much should we expand? Is this firm size earning a profit? Page 17 in booklet MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 22 Growth of the firm…How much should we expand? No. Its average cost exceeds its average revenue at price P. The firm therefore must either expand or cease operation. How much should it expand? MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 23 Growth of the firm…How much should we expand? Firm size 2, 3 and 4 would earn a profit at price P…. Q3 MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 24 Growth of the firm…How much should we expand? Q3 At size #2, the firm’s profit would be the green area shown above… MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 25 Growth of the firm…How much should we expand? Q3 At size #3, the firm’s profit would be the area shown above… MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 26 Growth of the firm…How much should we expand? At size #4, the firm’s profit would be the area shown above… Q3 MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 27 Growth of the firm…How much should we expand? If price were to fall to PLR, only size 3 would not lose money; it would break-even. MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 28 Growth of the firm…How much should we expand? Expansion to size #4 runs the risk of having to downsize or idle part of its existing capacity if the industry settled at price PLR MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 29 Expanding the Firm’s Capacity Page 19 in booklet Optimal input combination for output=10 MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 30 Expanding the Firm’s Capacity Two options if doubling output: 1. Point B ? 2. Point C? MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 31 Expanding the Firm’s Capacity Optimal input combination for output=20 with budget FG Optimal input combination for output=10 with budget DE MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 32 Expanding the Firm’s Capacity This combination costs more to produce 20 units of output since budget HI exceeds budget FG MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 33 Expanding the Firm’s Capacity Growth expansion path MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 34 Capacity Concepts MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 35 Definitions Engineering capacity – maximum output for which enterprise was designed Economic capacity – output given economic objectives and normal operating policy Capacity utilization rate – ratio of actual output to engineering capacity Capacity efficiency rate – ratio of actual output to economic capacity Desired utilization rate – ratio of economic to engineering capacity Bottleneck – constraint on economic capacity MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 36 Concept of Capacity Utilization at Market Level Price S1 Engineering capacity MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 37 Concept of Capacity Utilization at Market Level Price S1 D1 P1 Economic Engineering capacity capacity MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 38 Concept of Capacity Utilization at Market Level Price S2 S1 D1 P1 Actual output Economic Engineering capacity capacity MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 39 Concept of Capacity Utilization at Market Level Price S2 S1 D1 P2 P1 Actual output Economic Engineering capacity capacity MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 40 Concept of Capacity Utilization at Market Level Price S2 S1 D1 P2 Bottleneck P1 Actual output Economic Engineering capacity capacity MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 41 Market Price/Quantity Relationships MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 42 Stochastic Relationship Between Output and Price An example of potential market outcomes MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 43 An interpretation of potential price variability MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 44 Pro Forma Analysis of Future Trends Weekly Closing Price Volitility 6-Jul 13-Jul 20-Jul 27-Jul 3-Aug 10-Aug 17-Aug 24-Aug 31-Aug 6-Sep 16-Sep 23-Sep 30-Sep 5-Oct 12-Oct 19-Oct 26-Oct 2-Nov 9-Nov 16-Nov 23-Nov 30-Nov 7-Dec 14-Dec 21-Dec 28-Dec 4-Jan 11-Jan 18-Jan 25-Jan 1-Feb 8-Feb 15-Feb 22-Feb 29-Feb 7-Mar 14-Mar 20-Mar 30-Mar 4-Apr 11-Apr 18-Apr 25-Apr $6.25 $6.00 $5.75 $5.50 $5.25 $5.00 $4.75 $4.50 $4.25 $4.00 $3.75 $3.50 May 2008 Contract July 2008 Contract A necessary element to evaluating potential investment alternatives. MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 45 Evaluation Methods Stochastic analysis of commodity prices and unit input costs Risk and required rates of return Risk adjusted capital budgeting Pro forma financial statement analysis MB 664 UVG-TAMU May 2009 46