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NATIONAL CENTER OF EXCELLENCE FOR
NATIONAL CENTER OF EXCELLENCE FOR
NEXTOR
NEXTOR CDM R & D Team
Collaborative Decision Making:
Models for Decision Impact and
Benefits Assessment
– Metron: Mike Wambsganss et al
– UMD: Ball; Hoffman; Chen, Gormley, Innis,
Lulli, Mahli, Ville, Vossen
– MIT: Odoni, Clarke; Chaabouni, Hall,
Muharremoglu, Pujet, Rifkin
– UCB: Yano; Goodhart
Michael O. Ball
University of Maryland
Improved Information and
Common Situational
Awareness
NATIONAL CENTER OF EXCELLENCE FOR
NEXTOR
Models of CDM Impact on Resource
Allocation and Decision Making
NEXTOR
NATIONAL CENTER OF EXCELLENCE FOR
NEXTOR
airlines
airlines
FAA
FAA
other
NAS
users
improved
information
other
NAS
users
common
situational
awareness
NATIONAL CENTER OF EXCELLENCE FOR
Users Solve Problem:
Control Action Unnecessary
identification
of future demand/
capacity imbalance
TFM
Two Level Resource
Allocation
allocation
of resources
to individual
airlines
control
action
rescinded
alteration or
reduction
in demand
airlines
NATIONAL CENTER OF EXCELLENCE FOR
NEXTOR
TFM
TFM
allocation
of resources
to individual
flights
airlines
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refinement
of allocation
to insure
system
efficiency
TFM
proposed
control
action
1
Fair Resource Allocation
Consistent with Airline
Priorities
definition of feasible
alternatives, priorities
and tradeoff
criteria
notification
of potential
TFM action
TFM
airlines
NATIONAL CENTER OF EXCELLENCE FOR
NATIONAL CENTER OF EXCELLENCE FOR
NEXTOR
NEXTOR
Auction/Bidding Process
“fair”
allocation
of resources
to individual
flights
TFM
auction/
bidding
process
TFM
Airlines
NATIONAL CENTER OF EXCELLENCE FOR
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Free Market/Trading
Process
NATIONAL CENTER OF EXCELLENCE FOR
System Evaluation Topics
to be Covered
NEXTOR
• New Metrics:
TFM
– Integrative Predictor Error (IPE)
– Rate Control Index (RCI)
coordination
Airlines
• New data analysis and benefits computation
• Evaluation of Initial Collaborative Routing
Functionality
NATIONAL CENTER OF EXCELLENCE FOR
IPE metric
NATIONAL CENTER OF EXCELLENCE FOR
NEXTOR
• Measures performance of a stream of
predictions for a single event
• Assigns a single value to each flight over its
entire history
• Robust w.r.t. bad flight records - more
general than a snapshot
• Can be applied to any stream of predictions
for a single event (dep, arrv, cnx, etc.)
• Allows for aggregate stats (e.g. by airline)
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IPE Metric
IPE( f )=
tn=
t=0
ETD f ()t =
n
k =0
(t
k +1
− t k )perrt( )
perr(t) = |ETD(t) − ARTD|
A0
A1
A2
t0
t1
time ♦
t2
A3
t3
0
2
Measuring Quality of GDP
Planning
and Execution
reduced
arrival
capacity
(stochastic)
destination
airport
NATIONAL CENTER OF EXCELLENCE FOR
Need for a New Metric
• Need for a single-valued GDP performance
metric that does not second-guess forecasts
• Need to factor airport conditions out of
GDP post-performance evaluation
• View GDP as a plan: how well was the plan
executed?
airborne
delay
ground
delay
NATIONAL CENTER OF EXCELLENCE FOR
Airport is a Closed System
DEL
Time intervals t = 1, 2, …, T
t
ABH t
Airport at
Hour t
Landings
DEL t = AAR t + (ABH t- ABH
ABH t = number flights held
in state of airborne holding
at end of period t
DEL t = number of flights
delivered to (very near) the
terminal space of the airport
during period t
t
t-1)
NATIONAL CENTER OF EXCELLENCE FOR
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Use airborne holding model and arrival count (landings
per hour) to find “delivery” distribution of flights:
ABH t - 1
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origin
airports
airborne
queue
throughput
into airport
NATIONAL CENTER OF EXCELLENCE FOR
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Two Distributions of Concern
Net result is a realized distribution of flights, DEL, which is
the number of flights “delivered” to (but not necessarily
landed at) the airport in each time period.
PAAR
DEL
Planned Distribution
Realized Distribution
RCI = 97.58%
44
40
30
40
40
32
30
26
AAR t = number of flights
that landed during period t
Hr 1
Hr 2 Hr 3 Hr 4
Hr 1
Also, we have the planned
distribution of flights PAAR
(planned airport acceptance
rate).
Hr 2 Hr 3 Hr 4
NATIONAL CENTER OF EXCELLENCE FOR
Computation of RCI
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NATIONAL CENTER OF EXCELLENCE FOR
GDP Cancellations Near
Start
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The Idea behind the Rate Control Index (RCI):
(1) measure the amount of flight movement
necessary to convert Del back into PAAR:
a simple network flow problem solved via a
greedy algorithm
(2) normalize:
finding “worst” flight distribution -- solved by
dynamic programming
Percentage of GDP Cancellations Near Start
15
10
9/96-8/97
5
9/97-8/98
9/98-7/99
0
ATL
BOS
EWR ORD
SFO
STL
3
IPE-6 Cumulative Ave Values:
NEXTOR
SFO(1/97-6/99) -- non-GDP
Days
NATIONAL CENTER OF EXCELLENCE FOR
NATIONAL CENTER OF EXCELLENCE FOR
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IPE-6 Cumulative Ave Values:
SFO(1/97-6/99) -- GDP Days
25.00
45
Prototype
Ops
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30
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ipe1
ipe2
ipe3
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25
ipe4
|
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20
ipe5
ipe6
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15
Minutes of IPE Error (cumulative)
23.00
|
|
35
Prototype
Ops
21.00
|
19.00
|
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17.00
ipe1
ipe2
ipe3
|
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15.00
ipe4
ipe5
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13.00
ipe6
|
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11.00
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9.00
10
7.00
5
Date
sfo06-20-99
sfo05-17-99
sfo04-22-99
sfo03-30-99
sfo02-26-99
sfo01-21-99
sfo12-19-98
sfo11-17-98
sfo10-14-98
sfo09-07-98
sfo08-07-98
sfo07-14-98
sfo06-03-98
sfo05-14-98
sfo04-19-98
sfo03-26-98
sfo02-26-98
sfo01-05-98
sfo11-07-97
sfo10-04-97
sfo09-16-97
sfo08-26-97
sfo08-04-97
sfo07-14-97
sfo06-24-97
sfo06-06-97
sfo05-04-97
sfo03-23-97
sfo03-03-97
sfo02-08-97
Date
NATIONAL CENTER OF EXCELLENCE FOR
NEXTOR
RCI Trend: SFO
100.00
NATIONAL CENTER OF EXCELLENCE FOR
Initial Collaborative Routing
(ICR): Evaluation Summary
NEXTOR
• Evaluation of functionality not systems
• Systems and Procedures used:
98.00
96.00
94.00
92.00
90.00
88.00
Nov-99
Sep-99
Jul-99
Mar-99
Jan-99
Nov-98
Sep-98
Jul-98
May-98
Mar-98
Jan-98
Nov-97
Sep-97
Jul-97
May-97
Mar-97
Jan-97
84.00
May-99
RCI (terminal)
mov_avg (4)
cum_avg
86.00
82.00
sfo01-03-97
sfo06-02-99
sfo05-20-99
sfo04-25-99
sfo03-25-99
sfo03-15-99
sfo02-20-99
sfo01-16-99
sfo12-05-98
sfo11-11-98
sfo10-28-98
sfo10-02-98
sfo09-17-98
sfo08-20-98
sfo07-23-98
sfo06-30-98
sfo06-11-98
sfo05-12-98
sfo04-09-98
sfo03-19-98
sfo02-21-98
sfo02-08-98
sfo01-28-98
sfo01-14-98
sfo01-02-98
sfo11-13-97
sfo08-23-97
sfo07-16-97
sfo04-20-97
sfo02-11-97
sfo01-26-97
sfo01-16-97
sfo01-01-97
5.00
RCI Value
Minutes of IPE Error (cumulative)
40
– Collaborative Routing Coordination Tool (CRCT)
– Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP)
– Information and Application Distribution Products: PicTel &
WWW
– Low Altitude Arrival and Departure Routes (LAADR)
– Coded Severe Weather Avoidance Program Routes
(Coded SWAP)/Coded Departure Routes (CDR)
• All tools in very early stages of development ==>
evaluation primarily based on user feedback and
anecdotes
4