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Contents
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
OVERVIEW
1
1.1. Monetary Policy Implementation and Monetary Conditions
1
1.2. Macroeconomic Developments and Main Assumptions
4
1.3. Inflation and Monetary Policy Outlook
8
1.4. Risks and Monetary Policy
9
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
11
2.1. Global Growth
12
2.2. Commodity Prices
17
2.3. Global Inflation
19
2.4. Financial Conditions and Risk Indicators
21
2.5. Capital Flows
25
2.6. Global Monetary Policy Developments
26
INFLATION DEVELOPMENTS
33
3.1. Inflation
33
3.2. Expectations
42
SUPPLY AND DEMAND DEVELOPMENTS
43
4.1. Gross Domestic Product Developments and Domestic Demand
44
4.2. External Demand
48
4.3. Labor Market
52
FINANCIAL MARKETS AND FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION
71
5.1. Financial Markets
71
5.2. Financial Intermediation and Loans
79
PUBLIC FINANCE
91
6.1. Budget Developments
92
6.2. Developments in the Debt Stock
95
MEDIUM-TERM PROJECTIONS
101
7.1. Current State of the Economy, Short-Term Outlook and Assumptions
101
7.2. Medium-Term Outlook
104
7.3. Risks and Monetary Policy
107
BOXES
Box 2.1. Recent Developments in the Euro Area
30
Box 4.1. The Underlying Trend of Economic Activity Using Seasonally Adjusted Data
57
Box 4.2. Real Export Developments by Regions
60
Box 4.3. The Recent Course of Import Prices
64
Box 4.4. GDP, Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment
66
Box 5.1. The Effects of the CBRT’s Monetary Policy Decisions on Reserves
85
Box 5.2. Consumer Loan Margins and Credit Supply
88
Box 6.1. Main Features of the New Incentive System
98
Box 7.1. Differentiating the Domestic and External Demand in Estimating the Output Gap
110
Box 7.2. Inflation Expectations and the Communication
114