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Download Consumer Confidence Survey December 3, 2012
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Consumer Confidence Survey December 3, 2012 Questions Before getting started “Before we begin, I would like to assure you that the interview is confidential and completely voluntary. If we should come to any question that you don't want to answer, just let me know and we'll go on to the next question.” Control questions • How to divide our sample according to demographics? Age Date of Birth or age categories (such as under 15, 15-24, 25-44, 45-64 and above 65) Sex (male and female) Marital status (married, single, divorced, widowed) Number of household members Education (primary, middle-school, high-school, university etc.) Control Questions Income Individual income or household income or both? Monthly income or yearly income? Range of Income (How to construct the brackets?) Two examples a.600-1000 b.1000-4000 c.5000-10000 d.10000-30000 OR a) 0-1000 b) 1000-1500 c) 1500-2500 d) +2500 OR You can construct your own categories Extra income question given that people are unwilling to answer the question Do you (and your family living there) own your home or pay rent? Control Question How to control for financial situation? Do you pay your credit cards on time? A) Yes b) I pay minimum amounts c) I have difficulty to pay my debts Employment status Employee (wage/salary etc.earner) Employer Self-employed Non-paid family contributer Time specification about employment (in last four weeks, over the last year etc.) If you have not worked then Unemployed (looking for a job) student Retiree Other (Housewife, sick) Control Question Some of your examples OCCUPATION A)Self-employment ,b)Housewife,c)Officer, d)Craftsman/ Merchant/ Industrial Producer e)Other WHAT IS YOUR OCCUPATION? A)Private sector b)Public servant c)Student d)Unemployment e)What is your job? Engineer Teacher Worker Manager Housewife Other jobs Control Question Source of Information Do you follow economy news everyday? A)Frequently B)Sometimes C)Never OR Do you read financial articles? If yes, which ones and how often? a) Yes b)No Do you always discuss economic position of Turkey with your family or people around you? A)Frequently B)Sometimes C)Never How to control for political view? What is your political view? A)liberal b) nationalist c) socialist d) conservative OR Do you agree that Turkey will be among the biggest 10 economy of world in 2023? A) agree b)Not agree c) I don’t know OR Do you think that goverment’s economic policies are satisfactory? a.Yes b.No c.I don’t know Main Questions General economic performance WHAT ARE YOUR EXPECTATION ABOUT THE GROWTH OF TURKEY’S ECONOMY 2013? WHAT ARE YOUR EXPECTATION ABOUT THE INFLATION IN TURKEY IN 2013? WHAT ARE YOUR EXPECTATIONS ABOUT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN TURKEY IN 2013? OR Compared to past year (past 6 months, past 3 months) how do you evaluate current general economic situation in Turkey? OR Compared to now how do you expect Turkish economy to perform over the year (6 months/3 months)? Answers can have 3 or 5 categories and I don’t know option Better, stay the same, worse OR much better, better stay the same, worse, much worse You can also ask them to provide you with a list of reasons (a given number of them) for their answer! Main Questions Household Economic Performance Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago? Now looking ahead--do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now? OR You can ask more specific questions such as: Do you think now it is the right moment for people to buy durable consumption goods such as refrigerator, TV, furniture, etc.? Do you think the next 12 months or so will be a good time or a bad time to buy durable consumption goods such as refrigerator, TV, furniture, etc.? You can ask similar questions for other items such as car or house You can also ask them to provide you with a list of reasons (a given number of them) for their answer! (You can check later whether reasons for general economic performance are similar to or different from the reasons for household economic performance) Main Questions Financial Position Is there any chance for you (or your household's) to use debt to finance consumption expenditures(consumer loans, other borrowings) in the near future? (very likely, fairly likely, not likely) In view of the general economic situation, how do you assess saving (TRL, foreign currency,gold, deposit, other financial investment instruments, etc.) time condition? 1. A very good time to save 2. A fairly good time to save 3. Not a good time to save 4. A very bad time to save 5. No idea What does the willingness to save imply? Index Construction What is an Index? A combination of scores from a variety of variables ISE-100 or Consumer price index Example Suppose that I use three different questions in order to find out the expectations about the future of the economy in general Change in inflation, unemployment and growth The answers are a)increase b) remain the same c) decrease d) no answer 5 answers for each questions Individual 1 2 3 4 5 Growth Increasing Decreasing Same Decreasing Decreasing Inflation Decreasing Increasing Increasing Decreasing NA Unemployment Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Increasing Increasing Index Construction Each index is calculated in the following way: For each question we take the difference between percentages of positive answers and negative answers, and then add 100 to that. For growth the percentage of positive answers is 20 % (1/5) and that of negative answer is 60% (3/5). The difference is -40 and we get 60 after adding 100 to -40. The same calculation gives us 100 and 120, for inflation and unemployment, respectively. Then, the general index is calculated by taking arithmetic means of individual indices of the questions included in consumer confidence index. In our example it will be (60+100+120)/3=93.3 Individual 1 2 3 4 5 Growth Increasing Decreasing Same Decreasing Decreasing Inflation Decreasing Increasing Increasing Decreasing NA Unemployment Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Increasing Increasing Index Construction What does 93.3 tell us? What will be the value if everyone is optimistic about everything? (100 % -0 % +100=200) for each question will give us 200 as the maximum index value indicating maximum level of optimism What will be the value if everyone is pessimistic about everything? (0 % -100 % +100=0) for each question will give us 0 as the minimum index value indicating maximum level of pessimism The range of index will be between 200 and 0 What will be the value if everyone is indifferent about the future? (0 % -0 % +100=100) for each question will give us 100 as the index value indicating indifference or neutral expectations Anything below 100 points out pessimism whereas anything above 100 can be considered as optimistic Graphs and Variables Descripton of Sample Tables or graphs indicating characteristics of your sample according to age, education, employment status, income etc. Your results What is the main result according to your survey? (e.g. The share of individuals with an index value greater than 100 or comparison of consumer confidence between general expectations and household expectations) Do your results change according to your control variables? Some examples: Do well-of individuals have more optimistic expectations? Are younger people more optimistic about future? Are political views important in shaping the expectations?
