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Energy and CO2 intensities over the 19th and 20th centuries: Sweden versus Spain Astrid Kander (Univ.Lund, Sweden) and M.del Mar Rubio (UPF, Barcelona, Spain) rationale for long time perspective • energy/GDP and CO2/GDP over time: – Pevious studies find an Environmental Kutznets Curve (EKC) BUT: • Most studies are based on data from the 1950s – Our study begans a century earlier, 1850 • Previous studies only account for modern energies – Our study includes traditional forms of energy • The studies focus mostly on industrialised countries – We compare two rather different countries: • Climate, natural endowment, size and economic development About the data • Sweden: A.Kander (2002) • Spain: – Modern energy: C.Sudriá, Carreras and official statistics reelaborated by M.Rubio – Traditional energies: • firewood estimates by M.Rubio from public woodlands • Draft animal and human energy: estimates by M.Rubio using cattle and population official statistics – CO2: M.Rubio estimates based on modern energy data For comparisons, GDP figures taken from Maddison (2001) Historical trends in GDP and energy consumption per capita GDP per habitant (Sweden and Spain 1850-2000, Madison data set) 100.000 Spain GDPpc 10.000 2000 1990 1980 1970 1960 1950 1940 1930 1920 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 1860 1850 1.000 Energy consumption per habitant (Sweden and Spain 1850-2000) 1000 Sweden Energy/hab Spain Energy/hab 100 2000 1990 1980 1970 1960 1950 1940 1930 1920 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 1860 10 1850 GJ/habitant 1990 International Geary-Khamis dollars (log) Sweden GDPpc Sweden aggregate consumption of energy 1830-2002 2000 1800 gas 1600 heatpower elect 1400 nuclear hydroelectricity 1000 800 oil 600 coal 400 firewood 200 draught animals 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 1970 1965 1960 1955 1950 1945 1940 1935 1930 1925 1920 1915 1910 1905 1900 1895 1890 1885 1880 1875 1870 1865 1860 1855 0 1850 PJ 1200 human Aggregate energy consumption in Spain 1850-2000 4000 3500 3000 Natural gas 2500 2000 Hidroelectricity 1500 Petroleum 1000 Coal firewood 500 draft animals 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 1970 1965 1960 1955 1950 1945 1940 1935 1930 1925 1920 1915 1910 1905 1900 1895 1890 1885 1880 1875 1870 1865 1860 1855 0 1850 PJ Nuclear human energy Very different compossition of the energy carriers 1998 1994 1990 1986 1982 1978 1974 1970 1966 1962 1958 1954 1950 1946 1942 1938 1934 1930 1926 1922 1918 1914 1910 1906 1902 1898 1894 1890 1886 1882 1878 1874 1870 1866 1862 1858 1854 1850 gr/MJ CO2/energy (Sweden and Spain 1850-2000) 90 80 70 60 50 Sweden Spain 40 30 20 10 0 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 00 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 05 00 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 g/$ (1990 prices) CO2 intensity (Sweden and Spain 1850-2000) 1200,0 1000,0 800,0 600,0 Sweden Spain 400,0 200,0 0,0 Where to go from here? • Need to find out what explains increases and decreases in energy intensities: – Technological change? • May induce increases at the initial stages • As technology improves energy intensity would decline – Structural change? • Changes accross sectors rather than within sectors • Agriculture>>industry>>services – A combination of both?
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