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ET2050 Reference Scenarios TPG Meeting Bruxelles March 2012 What’s an Extreme scenario? Scientifically-driven (what may happen in the future?) Politically-driven (what we would like to happen?) Great Transition Scenarios, by Global Scenario Group PASHMINA 7th EU FP (2011) PASHMINA 7th EU FP (2011) Vision Baseline PASHMINA 7th EU FP (2011) PASHMINA 7th EU FP (2011) Asia Russia EU27 North America South America Africa South America Asia Russia Africa North America PASHMINA 7th EU FP (2011) Asia Russia EU27 North America South America Africa South AmericaEU27 Asia Russia Africa North America PASHMINA 7th EU FP (2011) Suburb Do it fast PASHMINA 7th EU FP (2011) Sparse and rural Do it together Do it slow Do it alone Core-city Small city GDP Social Triumphant Markets The Hundred Flow ers Shared Responsibilities Creative Societies Turbulent Neighbourhoods Perpetual Motion Urban Colonies Tribal Trading Good Intentions Market Forces Policy First Security First Sustainability First S&T develops a Mind of its Ow n The World Wakes Up Please, turn off the Spigot Backlash Take the A-Train I'm in love w ith my car Riding the rainbow Moonlight ride in a Diesel Fortress America The Strong Nation Clubs Triage Compassionate World Pro-active Europe Cohesion-oriented (Danubean Europe) Competitiveness-oriented (Rhine-Rhone Europe) Know ledge is King Big is beautiful Convulsive Change Strong Europe Transatlantic Market Regional Communities Global Economy GDP Environment Triumphant Markets The Hundred Flow ers Shared Responsibilities Creative Societies Turbulent Neighbourhoods Perpetual Motion Urban Colonies Tribal Trading Good Intentions Market Forces Policy First Security First Sustainability First S&T develops a Mind of its Ow n The World Wakes Up Please, turn off the Spigot Backlash Take the A-Train I'm in love w ith my car Riding the rainbow Moonlight ride in a Diesel Fortress America The Strong Nation Clubs Triage Compassionate World Pro-active Europe Cohesion-oriented (Danubean Europe) Competitiveness-oriented (Rhine-Rhone Europe) Know ledge is King Big is beautiful Convulsive Change Strong Europe Transatlantic Market Regional Communities Global Economy Technologic optimism Self-Organisation Planning Cultural pessimism commitment 2000-2006, mill. EUR Polycentrisme maillé Archipel éclaté Le centralisme renové Local differencié Creixement econòmic Equilibri territorial Rather than a union, a region or an identity I would describe Europe as a narrative; the story, to be continued endlessly, of an endeavour which can never be fully achieved but which will make sense anyway, because of the hopeful efforts and good will put into it Jens Christian Grøndahl