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South Asia after 1945 March 27, 2014 Review What is the difference between a totalitarian government and an authoritarian government? What was the impact on the Chinese economy of the switch from an import-substitution economy to one that was export oriented? What was the Cultural Revolution? What happened in China in Spring, 1989? Is China still a Communist country? South Asia India a democratic country with an economy that has been growing rapidly since the early 1990s, and has also seen a rise in Hindu nationalism. Sri Lanka richest, best-educated country in South Asia but had to endure violence between Sinhalese and Tamils for over 30 years (rival ethnic nationalisms with religious overtones). Pakistan off-and-on again democracy with little economic growth. Product of Muslim nationalism Bangladesh like Pakistan, off-and-on again democracy Even poorer than Pakistan. Product of Bengali nationalism Partition In August, 1947, British India was split into Hindu India and Muslim Pakistan. It was a violent separation, with a million or so killed, and millions more turned into refugees. Hindus fled to India while Muslims fled to Pakistan. (This is an example of communal violence, violence between religious communities.) (p. 200) Kashmir was (and still is) caught in the middle, claimed by India because its ruler in 1947 was Hindu but also claimed by Pakistan because the majority of the population is Muslim. (p. 201) East Pakistan broke off from West Pakistan in 1971 (they had been separated by 1,500 kilometres of Indian territory). It was not a peaceful separation but led to the establishment of the new Muslim country of Bangladesh. (p. 209) Partitioning Mother India http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Partition_of_India.PNG Notice where Kashmir is. Kashmir is also the place where India and China fought a brief war in 1962. Politics in modern South Asia India has managed to preserve a democratic form of government (except for 1975-77, when Indira Gandhi ruled as a dictator. She called an election in 1977, and stepped down when she lost.) (p. 203) India has had peaceful transfers of power. Both Pakistan and Bangladesh, on the other hand, have endured an alternation of civilian and military governments. Democracy is still quite fragile in both countries. (p. 210-212) Can we explain that difference? Here is a hint: The business leaders of British India stayed mostly in India. Politics in Pakistan and Bangladesh has been dominated by the representatives of the traditional elite, usually great landowning families. Important Early leaders of India Gandhi--wanted India to remain a village society. He was assassinated on Jan. 30, 1948 by a radical Hindu nationalist. Nehru --he was a democratic socialist who wanted the state to control the economy--under his rule (1947-1964), economic growth barely kept up with population growth. Indira Gandhi, Nehru’s daughter, was elected prime minister as head of the Congress Party. Served in that post 1966-1977, and again 1980-84. In 1975 she threw out the constitution and ruled as a mild dictator. Then she allowed a free election in 1977, lost, and stepped down. She was elected again in 1980 She was assassinated in 1984 by her Sikh bodyguards. How has democracy survived in India? India has a per capita GDP of around $4,000/yr. and has only a 62.8% literacy rate (about half of all adult women are illiterate). Yet it is a functioning democracy, quite unlike Pakistan and Bangladesh which have both endured many military coups. Barrington Moore claims that Gandhi’s campaign against the British, as well as the British treatment of local merchants, led to a nationalistic alliance of peasants with the commercial classes, preventing the fascist coalition from forming. Other give credit to experience with selfgovernment under British rule. Also what local industry there was before 1947 was mostly in what now is India. What is now Pakistan and Bangladesh was an agrarian economy under the control of rich landlords. End of Congress Domination The Congress Party continues to be the only party with a national reach. Indira Gandhi was replaced by her son Rajiv Gandi, but he was assassinated by a Tamil Tiger in 1991. A few years later his Italian-born widow, Sonia Gandhi, became the head of the party, though she never assumed the post of prime minister. Now the general secretary of the party is her son, the great-grandson of Nehru, Rahul Gandhi. Congress is challenged by the BJP, a Hindu-nationalist party whose most extreme elements say that Muslims (over 165 million live in India and have been there for many generations) are not really Indians. Congress runs the country now, but the BJP, which ruled the country from 1998 to 20o4, is expected to win the next election, which will begin in a few weeks. Economic Growth in India Nehru was a socialist who advocated centralized (government) economic planning and import substitution. Foreign investment was discouraged. Red tape (regulatory paper work) made even internal investment difficult. The economy grew, but only a little faster than the population did. (p. 206) 1991 -An economic crisis shocked India into changing economic strategies. India started courting foreign investment, reducing red tape for businesses, and encouraging export-oriented businesses. The economy began to grow. Since 1992, the GDP as grown about 6% a year through 2002 and picking up speed in more recent years, leading to a annual growth of per-capita income of 4% up to 2002, and then a doubling of per capita income between 2002 and 2009. It grew less than 4% in 2013. India compared with China in per capital GNP through 2002 http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:China_india_gdp.jpg Women leaders India --Indira Gandhi Sri Lanka --widow of first prime minister became prime minister herself (the first in the world) and then later her daughter became the president. Pakistan: Benazir Bhutto was prime minister twice, and almost a third time Bangladesh: the widow of one ruler and the daughter of another have been alternating as prime minster since 1991. Pakistan http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/middle_east_and_asia/pakistan_pol96.jpg Pakistan founder Jinnah dies in 1948 Constitutional government until 1958, when a general seized control 1971 After Bangladesh breaks away, Bhutto is elected president. 1973 the military overthrows Bhutto (they executed him in 1978). 1988 General in charge dies in a mysterious plane crash. 1988 Benazir Bhutto, daughter of the earlier president Bhutto, wins election, is thrown out by a judge, wins again in 1993, but loses election in 1997. 1999 General Musharraf seizes power 2007 Benazir Bhutto assassinated while campaigning. Benazir Bhutto’s husband chosen President and becomes first elected chief of state to serve a full term (though after 2010 he handed over much of his power to the Prime Minister, from the same party.) Opposition Party won presidential election in 2013, giving Pakistan its 1st peaceful transfer of power. Bangladesh https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/graphics/maps/bg-map.gif Bangladesh 1970 An East Pakistan-based party wins a majority of seats in the Parliament. West Pakistan rejects that result, resulting in civil war that split Pakistan in two. 1971 East Pakistan becomes Bangladesh under Sheikh Mujib 1975 Sheikh Mujib is assassinated and General Zia seizes power. 1978 Zia allows free elections. 1981 Zia is assassinated. Another army government takes over 1990 popular protests lead to democratic elections. 1991 and 2001 Zia’s widow elected prime minister 1996 Sheikh Mujib’s daughter is elected Prime Minister 2007 Both women are jailed for corruption. The army assumes control but Mujib’s daughter wins Dec, 2008, election and has been in power ever since. Birth of Bangladesh In 1971, when the government of Pakistan, dominated by people from West Pakistan, rejected the results of an election which gave power to people from East Pakistan, protests broke out in East Pakistan. The Pakistan army attacked and killed thousands. The US supported Pakistan because Pakistan was helped US President Nixon arrange a trip to China. Finally, India sent in troops and defeated the Pakistan army, and Bangladesh became an independent country. Sri Lanka http://go.hrw.com/atlas/norm_htm/srilanka.htm also http://delcity91.com/images1/lanka-india-2.jpg South Asia, not Southeast Asia. Sri Lanka 1956 Sinhalese is made the national language, offending Tamils. 1959 Prime Minister Bandaranaike is assassinated by a Buddhist monk. His wife wins the next election. 1975 Name is changed from Ceylon to Sri Lanka 1983 Tamil rebellion begins. 1994 daughter of Bandaranaike is elected president under a new constitution, appoints her mother prime minister. 2001 opposition wins control of parliament 2005 opposition wins the presidency. Crushes Tamils in 2009 Sri Lankan Civil War In 1983 Tamils (who are Hindus) were attacked in the capital city by Sinhalese (who are Buddhists). In response, Tamils mounted an armed rebellion to gain independence. That rebellion lasted until 2009 and cost over 70,000 lives, most of them in the final stages of the war. The final assault in 2009 was so brutal it cost a lot of innocent Tamil lives, and the current government has been accused by some of war crimes because of the way it conducted that final battle against the Tamil Tigers. The Tamil Tigers received a lot of financial support from the Tamil community in Toronto. Roots of violence per capita GDP: Sri Lanka $6,500 India Pakistan Bangladesh $4,000 $3,100 $2,100 55% 57% literacy 91% 62.8% Could British colonial rule be responsible for the fact that democracy has been stronger in South Asia than in China or in most of Southeast Asia? (Did the French or the Dutch teach democracy? What about the Japanese?)