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Seminar of Government
Experts
Indian Perspective
Surya P. Sethi
Adviser (Energy)
Planning Commission, Govt. of India
Roadmap of Presentation
Have Annex I countries met their
commitments?
 What GHG-forecasting models are good
for?
 What India is doing to address GHG
emissions?
 Sustainable lifestyles

Trends in meeting Annex I
Commitments
Trends in aggregate GHG
emissions, 1990-2000
Source: UNFCCC 2003
Trends of CO2 Equivalent Emissions
100.0
% change w.r.t 1990
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
-20.0
-40.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
-60.0 Australia
JAPAN
USA
Canada
Netherlands
EU
Russian federation
Sharp decrease for Russian Federation
Essentially flat for EU-15
Significant increase for Australia, Canada, Netherlands, Japan, USA
Transfer of finance

GEF allocation during 2nd replenishment period
USD 648.31 mn
 Against a pledge of USD 2750 mn

Co-financing ratio of 4.7:1(in 279 GEF climate
change projects). However all co-financing:
 Not “new and additional” finance
 Often sourced from host country

Only 7.2% of bilateral ODA commitment of DAC of
OECD for climate change between 1998-2000
Transfer of technology (TT)

National communication reporting of
technology transfer




Very few examples of actual successful “hard”
TT
Information networks, capacity building
reported as TT
Programmes reported include those for
improving trade relations (e.g. Asia Eco-best,
TACIS)
Commercial sales equated with technology
transfers
Forecasts Using CGE Models
Different CGE Models run with same scenarios give
widely varying results (e.g. Indian share of global
emissions)
Different CGE Models
550 ppmv Scenario
Different CGE Models
Reference Scenario
25
20
18
16
14
12
%
10
8
20
%
15
10
6
4
2
0
5
0
2000
2050
2000
2100
2050
MARIA
GTEM
MARIA
merge-hc
EPPA
merge-hc
EPPA
merge-lc
AIM
merge-lc
AIM
DNE21
MiniCam
DNE21
MiniCam
IMAGE2.2
SGM
IMAGE2.2
SGM
GTEM
2100
Source: Weyant & Parikh, 2004
Qualitative result: carbon
intensity of GDP for India
Source: Weyant & Parikh, 2004
India’s Initiatives
Key Energy Programmes and policies

Improving energy efficiency

Promoting hydro and renewable energy

Power sector reforms

Promotion of clean coal technologies

Energy and infrastructure development

Coal washing

Cleaner and lesser carbon intensive fuel
for transport

Environmental quality management
India’s Energy Policies: Scenarios
simulated by MARKAL (2001-2036)

Baseline (BAU Without Energy Initiatives):
Base year 2001, GDP growth 8%, IPCC emissions factors,
Official demographic projections, 8% discount rate

S5: Baseline with GDP growth 6.7%
Energy Scenarios with baseline assumptions

S1: Cleaner fuels for power generation

S2: Electricity for all by 2012, decentralized renewable options
efficient cook stoves

S3: 20% increase in share of public road transport
Greater CNG use in buses, taxis, 3-W vehicles

S4: S1+S2+S3
Change in India’s CO2 intensity as a
result of Government policy initiatives
CO2 Intensity
MMT/Billion US $
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
S3
S4
S5
Years
Baseline
S1
S2
TERI analysis
CO2 emissions
MMT
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
Year
BASELINE
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
TERI analysis
Lifestyle Differences
CO2 emission from agricultural sector--from Field (production)
to Table (processed food)-excluding cooking
Production related CO2 emission (tonne CO2/million kcal of food energy)
Processing related CO2 emissions (tonne CO2/million kcal of food energy)
Total CO2 emissions (tonne CO2/million kcal of food energy)
ton CO2/m kcal of food energy
2.50
2.25
2.00
1.7
1.75
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.2
1.50
1.25
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.1
0.1
0.00
India
China
United
Kingdom
Germany
Netherlands
Australia
United States
Source: TERI analysis (various data sources)
Municipal solid waste
Average rate of recycling (%);excludes reuse
70
80
40
53
47.3
60
30
20
0
US
Germany
Japan
India
GHG emissions from waste (gm/’000$GDPppp)
25
23
20
15
10
10
8
4
5
0
USA
UK
Germany
India
Source: TERI Analysis, various data sources
Estimated CO2 emissions from passenger
transport (gm/passenger-km)
250
193
200
150
118
100
50
16
0
India
EU (15 countries)
USA
Source: TERI Analysis, various data sources
Conclusions

Annex I I commitments not met – emissions still
rising, transfers of finance/technology minimal.

Numerical forecasts of relative or absolute growth
in GHG emissions from models vary widely and
hence cannot drive policies

However, qualitative insights if replicated by a
range of models are useful

Low per-capita GHG emissions in India are due to
sustainable lifestyles & not poverty alone

India is doing enough in mitigation of GHGs.
Technological and Financial barriers to achieving
identified energy initiatives must be removed