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Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment MB MC MB MC Introduction “Real GDP, the value of goods and services produced in the U.S., grew at an annual rate of 1 percent in the fourth quarter….” Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 2 MB MC Introduction “The unemployment rate last month rose to 6.1 percent, its highest level since….” Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 3 MB MC Introduction “Inflation appears subdued as the consumer price index registered an increase of only 0.2 percent last month…” Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 4 MB MC Gross Domestic Product: Measuring the Nation’s Output Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The market value of the final goods and services produced in a country during a given period Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 5 MB MC Gross Domestic Product: Measuring the Nation’s Output Market Value Market value is used to aggregate the quantities of different goods and services into one measurement Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 6 MB MC Gross Domestic Product: Measuring the Nation’s Output Market Value Calculating GDP for Orchardia Total production = 4 apples, 6 bananas, and 3 pairs of shoes o Price of apples = $0.25 o Price of bananas = $0.50 o Price of shoes = $20 Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 7 MB MC Gross Domestic Product: Measuring the Nation’s Output Market Value Calculating GDP for Orchardia GDP o (4 x $0.25) + (6 x $0.50) + (3 x $20) = $64 Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 8 MB MC Gross Domestic Product: Measuring the Nation’s Output Market Value Observation More expensive items receive a higher weight than cheaper items. Orchardia’s production changes to 3 apples, 3 bananas , and 4 shoes GDP o (3 x $0.25) + (3 x $0.50) + (4 x $20) = $82.25 Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 9 MB MC Percentages of American Men and Women over Age 16 Working Outside the Home, 1960 - 2001. • Increase in female labor force participation increases the demand for housekeeping and child care. • Unpaid household work is not counted in GDP. • Paid household work is counted in GDP. • The increase in female labor force participation has overstated GDP growth. Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 10 MB MC Gross Domestic Product: Measuring the Nation’s Output Economic Naturalist Why has female participation in the labor market increased by so much? What explains the trends illustrated in the previous figure? Hint: Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. The concept of comparative advantage Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 11 MB MC Gross Domestic Product: Measuring the Nation’s Output Final Goods or Services Goods or services consumed by the ultimate user; because they are the end products of the production process, they are counted as part of GDP Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 12 MB MC Gross Domestic Product: Measuring the Nation’s Output Intermediate Goods or Services Goods or services used up in the production of final goods and services and therefore not counted as part of GDP Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 13 MB MC Gross Domestic Product: Measuring the Nation’s Output Final Goods and Services Bread Production Milling Co. pays $0.50 for wheat Bakery pays $1.20 for flour Bakery sells bread for $2.00 Contribution to GDP = $2.00 Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 14 MB MC Gross Domestic Product: Measuring the Nation’s Output Final Goods and Services Getting a haircut Barber charges $10 for a haircut Barber pays his assistant $2 Contribution to GDP = $10 Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 15 MB MC Gross Domestic Product: Measuring the Nation’s Output Example: A good that can be either intermediate or final: Capital Good A long-lived good, which is itself produced and used to produce other goods and services Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 16 MB MC Gross Domestic Product: Measuring the Nation’s Output Example: A good that can be either intermediate or final: Capital Good Newly produced capital goods are classified as final goods. Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 17 MB MC Gross Domestic Product: Measuring the Nation’s Output Value Added For any firm, the market value of its product or service minus the cost of inputs purchased from other firms Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 18 MB MC Value Added in Bread Production Company Revenues – Cost of purchased inputs = Value added ABC Grain $0.50 $0.00 $0.50 General Flour $1.20 $0.50 $0.70 Hot’n’Fresh $2.00 $1.20 $0.80 Total $2.00 •The grain and flour are produced in 2002 •Bread is produced in 2003 •$1.20 is added to 2002 GDP •$0.80 is added to 2003 GDP Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 19 MB MC Gross Domestic Product: Measuring the Nation’s Output Produced Within a Country During a Given Period Domestic Only production that takes place within a country’s border Examples o Cars produced in the U.S. by foreign owned companies are counted. o Car produced in Mexico by U.S. owned companies are not counted. Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 20 MB MC Gross Domestic Product: Measuring the Nation’s Output Produced Within a Country During a Given Period Given Period Counts only goods produced during the defined period such as a calendar year Examples o The sale of used goods is not counted. o Real estate commissions are counted. Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 21 MB MC Expenditure Components of U.S. GDP, 2001 (billions of dollars) Consumption 6,987.0 Durable goods 835.9 Nondurable goods 2,041.3 Services 4,109.9 Investment 1,586.0 Business fixed investment 1,201.6 Residential investment 444.8 Inventory investment -60.3 Government purchases 1,858.0 Net exports -348.9 Exports 1,034.1 Imports 1,383.0 Total: Gross domestic product Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment 10,082.2 Slide 22 MB MC The Expenditure Method for Measuring GDP Consumption Expenditure, or simply Consumption Spending by households on goods and services, such as food, clothing, and entertainment Consumer durables Consumer nondurables Services Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 23 MB MC The Expenditure Method for Measuring GDP Investment Spending by firms on final goods and services, primarily capital goods and housing Business fixed investment Residential investment Inventory investment Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 24 MB MC The Expenditure Method for Measuring GDP Government Purchases Purchases by federal, state, and local governments of final goods and services Does not include transfer payments Does not include interest paid on government debt Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 25 MB MC The Expenditure Method for Measuring GDP Net Exports Exports minus imports Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 26 MB MC The Expenditure Method for Measuring GDP Y = gross domestic product, or output C = consumption expenditure I = investment G = government purchases NX = net exports Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 27 MB MC The Expenditure Method for Measuring GDP GDP Y C I G NX Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 28 MB MC ‘Twin Deficit’ Accounting Y = C + I + G + NX (Y -C -T) + (T-G) - I = NX (Net Exports) S(priv) + S(gov) – Investment ≡ Net Nat’l Saving Net Nat’l Savings = Net Exports Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 29 MB MC The Expenditure Method for Measuring GDP Example An economy produces 1 million cars valued at $15,000 each. Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 30 MB MC The Expenditure Method for Measuring GDP Production GDP = 1 million x $15,000 = $15 billion Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 31 MB MC The Expenditure Method for Measuring GDP Expenditure 700,000 sold to consumers C 200,000 sold to businesses I = 200,000 x $15,000 = $3.0 billion 50,000 sold to government G = 700,000 x $15,000 = $10.5 billion = 50,000 x $15,000 = $.75 billion 25,000 exported (no imports) NX Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. = 25,000 x $15,000 = $.375 billion Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 32 MB MC The Expenditure Method for Measuring GDP Expenditure 975,000 sold 25,000 inventory I = 25,000 x $15,000 = $.375 billion GDP = C + I + G + NX $10.5 + (3.0 +.375) + .75 + .375 = $15.0 billion Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 33 MB MC GDP and the Incomes of Capital and Labor GDP = Labor Income + Capital Income Labor income Equals 75% of GDP Includes: o Wages o Salaries o Income of the self-employed Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 34 MB MC GDP and the Incomes of Capital and Labor GDP = Labor Income + Capital Income Capital income Equals 25% of GDP Includes: o o o o Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Profits Rent Interest Royalties Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 35 MB MC The Three Faces of GDP Production Market value of final goods and services Expenditure Income Consumption Labor Income = = Investment Government purchases Capital Income Net exports Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 36 MB MC Prices and Quantities in 2000 and 2004 Quantity of pizzas Price of pizzas Quantity of calzones Price of calzones 2000 10 $10 15 $5 2004 20 $12 30 $6 GDP •2000 = (10)($10) + (15)($5) = $175 •2004 = (20)($12) + (30)($6) = $420 Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Observations •Output doubled •GDP increased by 2.4 times •Prices also rose •GDP overstates economic growth Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 37 MB MC Nominal GDP versus Real GDP Real GDP A measure of GDP in which the quantities produced are valued at the prices in a base year rather than at current prices Real GDP measures the actual physical volume of production Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 38 MB MC Nominal GDP versus Real GDP Nominal GDP A measure of GDP in which the quantities produced are valued at current-year prices Nominal GDP measures the current dollar value of production Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 39 MB MC Prices and Quantities in 2000 and 2004 Quantity of pizzas Price of pizzas Quantity of calzones Price of calzones 2000 10 $10 15 $5 2004 20 $12 30 $6 •2000 = base year •2004 Real GDP = (20)($10) + (30)($5) = $350 •2000 Real GDP = (10)($10) + (15)($5) = $175 Real GDP = Nominal GDP in the base year Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 40 MB MC Real GDP is not the Same as Economic Well-Being Leisure Time Shorter work week Start working later Retire earlier Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 41 MB MC Real GDP is not the Same as Economic Well-Being Economic Naturalist Why do people work fewer hours today than their great-grandparents did? Hint: Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Use the concept of opportunity cost Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 42 MB MC Real GDP is not the Same as Economic Well-Being Nonmarket Economic Activities Household production Volunteer services Nonmarket activities are more important in poor countries Underground economy Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 43 MB MC Real GDP is not the Same as Economic Well-Being Environmental Quality and Resource Depletion Benefits of environment quality are not measured. GDP is not adjusted for resource depletion. Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 44 MB MC Real GDP is not the Same as Economic Well-Being Quality of Life Crime rates Traffic congestion Civic organizations Open space Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 45 MB MC Real GDP is not the Same as Economic Well-Being Poverty and Economic Inequality GDP does not capture the effects of income inequality Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 46 MB MC GDP & Basic Indicators of Well-Being All developing countries Least developed countries GDP per person (U.S. dollars) 3,530 1,170 25,860 Life expectancy at birth (years) 64.5 51.7 78.0 Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 live births) 61 100 6 Under-5 mortality rate (per 1,000 live births) 89 159 6 Doctors (per 100,000 people) 78 30 252 Incidence of HIV/Aids (% in 15-49 age group) 1.3 4.3 0.3 Undernourished people (%) 18 38 Negligible Primary enrollment rate (as % of age group) 85.7 60.4 99.9 Secondary enrollment rate (as % of age group) 60.4 31.2 96.2 Adult literacy rate (%) 72.9 51.7 98.6 Indicator Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Industrialized countries Slide 47 MB MC But GDP is Related to Economic Well-Being Economic Naturalist Why do far fewer children complete high school in poor countries than in rich countries? Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 48 MB MC The Unemployment Rate Measuring Unemployment The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) surveys 60,000 randomly selected households each month Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 49 MB MC The Unemployment Rate Measuring Unemployment Those 16 years and over are placed in one of three categories: Employed Unemployed Out of the labor force The BLS estimates how many people in the U.S. fit into each category. Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 50 MB MC The Unemployment Rate Measuring Unemployment Labor force = employed + unemployed unemployed Unemployme nt rate labor force labor force Participation rate population 16 and over Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 51 MB MC U.S. Employment Data, July 2002 (in millions) Employed 134.04 Plus: Unemployed 8.35 Equals: Labor force 142.39 Plus: Not in labor force 71.63 Equals: Working-age (over 16) population 214.02 Unemployment rate = unemployed/labor force = 8.35/142.39 = 5.9% Participation rate = labor force/working-age population = 142.39/214.02 = 66.5% Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 52 MB MC The U.S. Unemployment Rate since 1960 Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 53 MB MC The Unemployment Rate The Cost of Unemployment Economic Psychological Social Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 54 MB MC The Unemployment Rate The Duration of Unemployment The impact of unemployment is influenced by how long individuals have been unemployed. The unemployment spell The duration of unemployment Long-term unemployed Chronically unemployed Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 55 MB MC The Unemployment Rate Unemployment Spell A period during which an individual is continuously unemployed Duration The length of an unemployment spell Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 56 MB MC The Unemployment Rate The Duration of Unemployment Discouraged workers Involuntary part-time workers In July 2002: Official unemployment rate = 5.9% Including discouraged workers and involuntary part-time worker = 9.4% Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 57 MB MC The Unemployment Rate Discouraged Workers People who say they would like to have a job but have not made an effort to find one in the last four weeks Copyright c 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: Measuring Economic Activity: GDP and Unemployment Slide 58 End of Chapter MB MC