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Katja Hanewald - Mortality Modeling:
Lee-Carter and the Macroeconomy
Discussant: David Smith
Cass Business School
Research Contribution
• The paper shows how changes in GDP can be brought into the
Lee-Carter model to explain some of the change in mortality
rates
• Six major economies are studied and all show that GDP has a
significant effect on mortality changes
• It is also noted that the effect of GDP is not constant over the
studied range
• Instead there are fundamental changes in the structure
Suggestions and Questions
• Is there a fundamental shift in the types of economy of the
countries that translates into the change in relationship
between GDP and mortality rates?
• E.g. manufacturing to service economy
• Or is there a certain level of GDP that leads to this change in
relationship?
• Is it possible to study further the effects of GDP on different
types of death?
• With the above analysis are we able to predict better the
mortality rates of developing countries as they follow similar
paths to the countries studied?