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GDP-by-Metropolitan Area Statistics Accelerated Release of Data for 2008 Sharon D. Panek Association of Public Data Users Online December 10, 2009 www.bea.gov BEA Introduced Accelerated Statistics of GDP by Metropolitan Area ▪ Accelerated release of statistics by one year ▪ MSAs represent 90 percent of U.S. GDP ▪ Reflects BEA’s commitment to make accounts more responsive, timely, relevant and accurate ▪ Measures final goods and services and is consistent with BEA’s national and regional accounts www.bea.gov 2 Overview of Methodology ▪ Simple and transparent ▪ Relies heavily on industry earnings data which represent 64 percent of GDP ▪ Fully integrated with other statistics prepared by BEA www.bea.gov 3 Estimation Formula ▪ Equation for statistics: GDPi , st , yr Earningsi ,co , yr co 1 Earnings i , st , yr N GDPi ,msa, yr N number of countiesin MSA ▪ Sum of gross county product controlled to GDP-by-state statistics ▪ Chained-dollar GDP by metropolitan area computed with national deflators www.bea.gov 4 Acceleration Formula ▪ Equation for accelerated statistics: GDPi,ms a,yr Earningsi,co,yr GDPi,co,yr 1 Earningsi,co,yr 1 co 1 N N number of countiesin MSA ▪ Sum of gross county product controlled to GDP-by-state statistics www.bea.gov 5 Evaluation Tools ▪ Internal sources GDP by state Earnings by place of work Personal income by place of residence Location quotients ▪ External sources Standard & Poor’s CompuStat Database Global Insight and Moody’s Economy.com Numerous industry and local government websites www.bea.gov 6 www.bea.gov 7 Economy.Com GMP Compared to BEA GDP by Metropolitan Area, 2007 $1,300B $1,200B $1,100B $1,000B New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJPA Difference: $77.5 billion $900B Economy.com $800B $700B Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX Difference: $53.0 billion $600B $500B $400B San Francisco-OaklandFremont, CA Difference: $35.0 billion Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-INWI Difference: $41.2 Billion $300B $200B Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Difference: $43.7 billion $100B $0B $0B $100B $200B $300B $400B $500B $600B $700B BEA $800B $900B $1,000B $1,100B $1,200B $1,300B Source: September 2008 Moody’s Economy.com data release. Note: The 45 degree reference line indicates where points would be located if Economy.com GMP and BEA GDP by metropolitan area were equal. Values are shown in millions of current dollars. www.bea.gov 8 Global Insight’s GMP Compared to BEA GDP by Metropolitan Area, 2007 $1,300B $1,200B $1,100B $1,000B IHS Global Insight $900B $800B $700B $600B $500B $400B $300B Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI Difference: $4.6 billion Miami-Fort LauderdalePompano Beach, FL Difference: $7.5 billion San Jose-SunnyvaleSanta Clara, CA Difference: $5.5 billion Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Difference: $5.0 billion Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC Difference: $7.7 billion $200B $100B $0B $0B $100B $200B $300B $400B $500B $600B $700B BEA $800B $900B $1,000B $1,100B $1,200B $1,300B Source: “GMP The Engine of America’s Growth,” January 2007. Prepared for the U.S. Conference of Mayors by Global Insight. Note: The 45 degree reference line indicates where points would be located if Global Insight GMP and BEA GDP by metropolitan area were equal. Values are shown in billions of current dollars. www.bea.gov 9 Metropolitan Areas in Perspective ▪ New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island MSA ranked 2nd among states and 12th among countries1 ▪ Current-dollar GDP for the Nation was $14.2 trillion; it was $1.8 trillion for California, the largest state 1 World Development Indicators database, World Bank, August 24, 2009. www.bea.gov 10 Common Discussion Topics ▪ Size of the local economy ▪ Comparisons to other metropolitan areas, states, or the Nation ▪ Growth (or decline in the local economy) ▪ Industries driving a metropolitan area’s growth or decline ▪ The impact of natural disasters on a metropolitan economy www.bea.gov 11 Ten Largest Metropolitan Areas, 2008 (Ranked by GDP by Metropolitan Area, Earnings, and Personal Income) Rank1 Metropolitan Area GDP Earnings Personal Income New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA 1 1 1 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA 2 2 2 Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI 3 3 3 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 4 4 4 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 5 6 7 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX 6 5 5 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD 7 8 6 Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH 8 7 9 San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA 9 9 8 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA 10 10 11 Source: August 2009 accelerated metropolitan area personal income release which is reported for 2008 OMB metropolitan statistical area definitions. 1 Rank for each series is based on current-dollar statistics. www.bea.gov 12 www.bea.gov 13 www.bea.gov 14 Challenges ▪ Data sources for GDP-by-state may not be available for MSAs ▪ Correlation of earnings and output may not be strong for some capital-intensive industries ▪ State relationship of GDP to earnings may not apply to all MSAs ▪ Earnings data are not available for years prior to 2001 www.bea.gov 15 GDP by Metropolitan Area: Future Work ▪ Monitor accuracy of GDP-bymetropolitan-area statistics ▪ Further research to refine statistics, if appropriate and feasible www.bea.gov 16 Contact Information Sharon D. Panek, Chief GDP by State Services Section Regional Product Division [email protected] (202) 606-9228 (phone) (202) 606-5321 (fax) www.bea.gov 17