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International Seminar of Early Warning and Business Cycle Indicators Moscow, 17-19 November 2010 Construction of Cyclical Indicators for Ukraine on the BTS Basis Maryna Pugachova Scientific & Technical Complex for Statistical Research of State Statistics Committee of Ukraine BTS in Ukraine Since 1997: industry; construction; retail trade; transport; agriculture; investment survey. Since 2010 - non-financial services sector Organizers: Scientific & Technical Complex for Statistical Research; State Statistics Committee of Ukraine (SSCU). Our functions are: adopting of methodology; designing of the questionnaires; treatment of data (scanning & completion data base); preparing different analytical reviews (news releases for Internet site, reports for respondents, bulletins for government). SSCU functions are: forming the samples in regions in accordance with our methodological recommendations; distribution of questionnaires blanks; collecting of completed questionnaires; checking of the codes in questionnaires. Synthetic indicators for: industry, construction, retail trade, transport, agriculture. Global synthetic indicator for business climate Picture 1. Global indicator for business climate & GDP in comparable prices 115 15 10 110 5 105 0 % 100 -5 % -10 95 -15 90 Global Synt (l. s.) y-o-y GDP growth (r. s.) -20 85 -25 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Picture 2. Global indicator for business climate & GDP in constant prices 115 15 10 110 5 105 0 % 100 -5 % -10 95 -15 Global synthetic indicator (l. s.) 90 y-o-y GDP growth (r. s.) -20 85 -25 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 The set of composite indicators by economic sector Branches of economy (Economic sectors) INDUSTRY Indicators from BTS For Leading synthetic indicator Future Situation For Coincident synthetic indicator Business Current Business Situation Future Production Past Production Total Order Books Total Order Books Foreign Order Books Foreign Order Books – Stocks – Stocks Future Orders Books Future Employment – Capacity The set of composite indicators by economic sector Branches of economy (Economic sectors) CONSTRUCTION Indicators from BTS For Leading synthetic indicator For Coincident synthetic indicator Future Activity Past Activity Order Tendency Cost Tendency Future Cost Tendency Order Tendency – Future Debts Work Plan Future Business Situation Cost Level Future Employment – Debts on Hand Current Situation Business The set of composite indicators by economic sector Branches of economy RETAIL TRADE Indicators from BTS For Leading synthetic indicator For Coincident synthetic indicator Future Local Order Book Future Employment Future Foreign Order Book Financial Results Future Financial Results TRANSPORT Work plan Work done Present demand Present demand Future demand Future Employment Future Business Situation – Capacity Future Competition Current Situation Business The set of composite indicators by economic sector Branches of economy (Economic sectors) AGRICULTURE Indicators from BTS For Leading synthetic indicator Future Production-Animal For Coincident synthetic indicator Past Production-Animal Total Order Books-Animal Total Order Animal Total Order Books-Plant Books- Total Order Books-Plant Forecast Order Animal Books Current Business Situation, level Forecast Plant Books Current Business Situation, tendency Order Future Business Situation Picture 3. Leading indicator for industry 120 20 10 110 0 100 -10 90 -20 Leading synthetic Industrial grows y-o-y (right scale) 80 -30 70 -40 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Picture 4. Coincident indicator for industry 125 20 120 10 115 110 0 105 -10 100 95 -20 Coincident synthetic indicator 90 -30 Industrial grows y-o-y (right scale) 85 80 -40 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Picture 5. Leading indicator for construction 140 45 35 130 25 120 15 5 110 -5 100 -15 90 -25 80 Leading synthetic indicator for consntruction -45 70 Construction growth y-o-y (r.s.) -35 -55 60 -65 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Picture 6. Leading indicator for agriculture 150 40 140 30 130 20 120 10 110 0 100 -10 Leading synthetic 90 -20 Agricultural grows y-oy (right scale) 80 -30 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Picture 7. Leading Global indicator for business climate 115 15 10 110 5 105 0 100 -5 95 -10 90 -15 Leading global synthetic indicator (l. s.) y-o-y GDP growth (r. s.) 85 -20 80 -25 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Ifo segmentation method Segment a (demand weakness and supply-side bottlenecks). Existence of all the main factors that constitute demand or supply-side bottlenecks: “low demand”, “shortage of materials”, “high taxes”, “shortage of equipment”, “out-dated equipment”, “shortage of working capital”, “lack of qualified personnel”. Segment b.1 (pronounced supply-side bottlenecks). Existence of all the main factors from segment а, except for “demand weakness”, and aggravation of future business situation. Segment b.2 (temporary supply-side bottlenecks). Existence of all the main factors from segment а, except for “demand weakness”, and unchanged future business situation. Segment c (without cyclic disturbances). No supply-side bottlenecks, “good” and “satisfactory” assessments of the financial and economic condition. Segment d.1 (pronounced demand weakness). The only bottleneck is “demand weakness”, added by the expected aggravation of the business situation. Segment d.2 (temporary demand weakness). The only bottleneck is “demand weakness”, added by the expected unchanged (the same as in the past quarter) business situation. Picture 8. Segmentation of industrial enterprises at industry level in accordance with cyclic categories 100% a 80% b.1 60% b.2 c 40% d.2 20% d.1 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 0% Picture 9. Segmentation of industrial enterprises manufacturing of investment goods 100% a 80% b.1 b.2 60% c 40% d.2 20% d.1 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 0% Thank you for the attention!