Download スライド 1 - Casa Asia

Survey
yes no Was this document useful for you?
   Thank you for your participation!

* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project

Document related concepts

Abenomics wikipedia , lookup

Chinese economic reform wikipedia , lookup

Transcript
CASA ASIA Economic Congress 2004
‘The Recovery of the Japanese Economy
and Its Influence in Asia’
November , 2004
Takashi FUKAYA
1
1. The Economic Relationship between Cataluña and Japan
• Economic relationship between Spain and Japan is good.
• Japanese enterprises energetic investment in Cataluña state.
(centering around manufacturing industry,142 Japanese
enterprises have entered into the Cataluña market).
2
2. Issues for Discussion
• Japanese and Asian economic trends.
• Focus on India and China.
- Big markets holding opportunity and risk.
• Differences between Asia and Western society.
- Closer relationship overcomes differences.
• Vision of Asia and Japan.
- The recovery of the Japanese economy and
its influence in Asia.
3
3. Recovery of the Japanese Economy
• Japanese economy escapes from long term recession,
future strong recovery.
- FY03, GDP 3.2% Forecast by IMF, etc, 3~4%
• Government progress on regulatory reform,
and structural reform.
- Push restructuring of enterprise and market renewal.
• Support for R/D and promote corporate innovation.
- Tax reduction for R/D,
- Concentrate investment on specific projects.
4
4‐(1). East Asia and Japan
• East Asian economic rapid growth.
- Strengthening export drive to practically use good and
cheep labor force.
- Formation of regional supply chain network.
(Regional Trade Dependence 1985: 36.2%. 2002: 51.8%)
- Appearance of middle class with purchasing power.
• China is growth especially remarkable.
- Market-oriented economic reform, liberalization
spring from WTO participation.
• Therefore, created global triangular trade system.
- Japan:advanced parts. ASEAN:interim goods.
China:assembly.
5
4-(2)
Influence on Japanese recovery and way to expand cooperation
• Japanese economy is affected by East Asian supply chain
network.
- For rapid spread of the trade relationship with
East Asian economies.
(1992: $180bil, → 2002: $304bil,)
- For FDI into East Asia.
• Japanese recovery is also important to East Asia.
• Therefore, East Asian countries and Japan promote
FTA/EPA possibility.
- 2002: Conclusion with Singapore.
2003: Start negotiation with South Korea.
2004: Start with Thailand, Philippines and Malaysia.
2005: Will start with ASEAN.
6
4-(3). Risk and Potential of East Asia
• The growth of East Asia is an inherent systematic risk.
- Increase energy consumption due to careless consumption.
- Exchange rate risk due to dollar devaluation pressure.
• Japan is need to overcome systemic risk and play a role in Asia.
- Supply capital, advanced technology
and key industrial parts.
- Policy and regulatory cooperation based on
the Japanese experience.
7
5. India – The Great Elephant
• Increased Indian presence.
- Interest due the base of IT business outsourcing.
- Big territory and large educated population.
• Structural change an Indian economy/industry.(1980→2000)
- Share of agriculture in GDP:
38.6% → 24.9%
Share of service sector in GDP: 37.2% → 48.2%
- Formation of IT cluster.
(Bangalore region so called “Indian Silicon Valley”)
8
6. Other Regions of Asia
• History of Asian economic development.
- Flying Geese Pattern Model.
(Japan>NIEs>ASEAN>China>Where?)
- Open and reformable policy of China.
→ Market-oriented economic reform.
• Reasons for Asian success.
- Division of production process leading manufacturing
industry, and leveling welfare distribution.
- Increase FDI → export oriented industry creation.
• But… environment of other areas of Asia (ex. Middle East)
is different.
- Continuation of political opposition.
- Dependence on natural resources.
9
- Concentration of wealth.
7. Toward Development of Asia
• Handling Asia’s potential and risks.
- Maintain and spread the good growth cycle.
(Agree to the economic growth policy.
→ Provide an environment for FDI.
→ Accumulation of industry.
→ Improvement of labor productivity through the welfare
distribution.
→ Creation consumer market.)
- Provision of the institutions for industrial structure reform
and evasion of systemic risk.
• Japan will contribute with Asian countries toward prosperity
and stable growth of Asia.
10
Muchas Gracias!
11