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Transcript 
The Economic
State of the
Union
15th EuroMemo Annual Workshop
Berlin, 25-27 September 2009
Trevor Evans
The Crisis
in the US
International
Transmission
World trade in goods
Change in 3-month average over same period in previous year, %
Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, World Trade Monitor, June 2009, August 2009
Europe
Source: Eurostat, News release, 129/2009, 14 September 2009
EU GDP Growth
(% change over previous quarter)
1.5
2008 Q1
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
EA16
EU27
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
-2.5
2000
2002
2004
Source: Eurostat,
2006
2008
EU GDP Growth
(% change over four quarters)
6
2008 Q1
4
2
0
EA16
EU27
-2
-4
-6
2000
2002
2004
Source: Eurostat
2006
2008
EU Exports
(% change over four quarters)
6
EA16
EU27
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
2000
2002
2004
Source: Eurostat
2006
2008
EU investment in fixed capital
(% change over four quarters)
10
EA16
EU27
5
0
-5
-10
-15
2000
2002
2004
Source: Eurostat
2006
2008
Source: Eurostat, News Release, 123/2009, 1 September 2009
EU Unemployment by gender (%)
10
Female
9
8
Male
7
6
2000
2002
2004
Source: Eurostat
2006
2008
Source: Eurostat, News Release, 123/2009, 1 September 2009
Euro Area: Non-financial corporations gross operating surplus
(Euros millions, four-quarter cumulated flows)
Source: Eurostat
Euro Area: Non-financial corporations net entrepreneurial income
(Euros millions, four-quarter cumulated flows)
Source: ECB
Euro Area: Non-financial corporations compensation of employees
(Euros millions, four-quarter cumulated flows)
Source: ECB
Consumption expenditure
(% change over four quarters)
4
EA16
EU27
3
2
1
0
-1
2000
2002
2004
Source: Eurostat
2006
2008
Central Bank interest rates (%)
Central bank balance sheets
Source: OECD, What is the economic outlook for OECD countries?, September 2009
Money market stress
Euro area banks reporting tightening of credit conditions (%)
Source: OECD based on ECB data
Dollar - Euro exchange rate
1.60
1.50
1.40
1.30
1.20
1.10
1.00
0.90
0.80
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
EU governments’ fiscal stimulus packages, % GDP
Source: Andy Watt, A quantum of solace, ETUI Working Paper 2009.5
EU fiscal packages by country (% GDP)
Source: Andy Watt, A quantum of solace, ETUI Working Paper 2009.5
EU Policy
G 20
Meeting
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