Download Kazakhstan - Finance

Kazakhstan:
The Emerging “Tiger”
Economy
of Central Asia
R.W. Robertson, Ph.D.
Director Graduate School of Business
Saint Leo University
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8th Portoroz Business Conference
Agenda
 Kazakhstan: Context
 Economy of Kazakhstan – Current Status
 National Economic Strategy for Kazakhstan
 Issues for Resolution
 Summary
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Kazakhstan - Center of The Silk
Highway
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Kazakhstan: Fast Facts (2005)
 Area: 2.7 million square hectares
 Population: 15 million
 Density: 6 people per hectare
 GDP: 124 billion USD
 GDP (per capita p p p): $8,149 USD
 GDP Growth: 10 %
 Currency: Tenge
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Population (in millions)
Population of Kazakhstan
17
16.5
16
15.5
15
14.5
14
1985
1990
1995
Year
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2000
2005
Selected Economic Performance of Kazakhstan
(1999-2005)
Year
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Population
14.9
14.9
14.9
14.9
14.9
14.9
15.1
Unemployment
13.5%
12.8% 10.4% 9.3%
8.8%
8.4%
8.0%
Gross National Income
(per Capita)
1290
1270
1350
1520
1780
2090
2250
Real GDP Growth (%)
2.7
9.81
3.5
9.8
9.2
8.1
9.5
Oil Production
(Millions of barrels/day)
0.6
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.5
Total External Debt
(Government % GDP)
24.8
21.8
17.6
14.3
11.7
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8.8
6.2
Kazakhstan in Transition (1993-2005) %
GDP Change Kazakhstan and all other Transition Countries
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
1
2
3
4
5
6
Years
Kazakhstan GDP
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7
8
9 10 11 12 13
1=1993
CIS (Mean)
Major Exports
3.20%
2.40%
15.80%
74%
Mineral Products
Chemicals
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Metals
Food Products
Major Imports
11.50%
13.40%
43.80%
14.70%
Machinery/Equipment
Mineral Products
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Metals
Chemicals
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Leading Markets
9.60%
19.80%
10.50%
15%
Switzerland
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Italy
Russia
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France
Leading Suppliers
6.90%
7.20%
7.50%
Russia
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38%
Germany
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China
US
Kazakhstan: Potential Oil Production 2000-2035
(millions of barrels per day)
4
3.5
3
2.5
Off-shore
2
On-shore
1.5
1
0.5
0
2000
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2005
2010
2015
2020
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2025
2030
2035
Kazakhstan: Structure of Gross Domestic
Product (2003)
12%
28%
7%
7%
8%
10%
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13%
12%
Oil and Gas Services
Trade and Commerce
Transportation
Public Service
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Metal Manufacturing
Other
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Kazakhstan: Structure of Gross Domestic
Product (2003)
90
80
70
60
50
East
West
North
40
30
20
10
0
1st Qtr
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2nd Qtr
3rd Qtr
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4th Qtr
New Regulatory Environment
 Government owned KazMmunaiGaz must be at
least half owner in all new oil projects;
 New rent tax was introduced on oil exports; and
 Progressive tax introduced to ensure windfall from
rising prices is split between the producer and the
government.
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National Economic Strategy
 Integrate into the World Economy (WTO
Membership/Organization for Security and CoOperation in Europe Chairmanship,
 Modernize and diversify the economy for
sustainable economic growth (Cluster Development
Initiative),
 Develop a modern social framework for all citizens.
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• Improve education as knowledge is vital for the new
economy,
• Further develop the structure and institutions of
democracy,
• Develop a national security strategy to meet the needs
of the country and region,
• Implement a balanced and responsible foreign policy.
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National Economy Goals
 GDP growth of 8.5% in each of the next three
years;
 By 2008, the GDP will be double the 2000 levels;
 GDP per capita will rise by US $5,559 by 2008;
 Inflation will be held to the 5-7% range during the
three year period; and
 The volume of energy resources will increase.
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Issues for Resolution
 Corruption,
 Overheating of the economy,
 Democratic advancements,
 Education system quality improvements.
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Opportunities
 Skills Training,
 Service Industries,
 Tourism,
 Borat- “Cultural learning of America for make benefit
glorious nation of Kazakhstan.”
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Summary
 Impressive GDP growth since the Russian crisis of
1998, driving substantial increases in average
prosperity.
 Increasing dominance of the oil and gas sector with
considerable growth potential.
 Pressure building from exchange rate appreciation.
 Overheating of domestic real estate prices.
 Significant government efforts to overcome challenges
of a resource-driven economy and diversify the
economic base.
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Thank You!
Спасибо!
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