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Chapter 11 Economic Policy under Fixed and Floating Exchange Rate System Macroeconomic Goals in an Open Economy Inflation is an increase in the overall price level in the economy. Several measures could be used to indicate the overall price level such as CPI, PPI, etc. Price variations disturb economic activities such as consumption and investment. Deflation refers to the decrease in the overall price level. Unemployment is the proportion of workers who are not employed or are looking for jobs. Economic growth determines the growth in living standards. The three economic goals in an open economy are internal balance, the overall balance in domestic markets. BOP equilibrium is the external balance. The ultimate goal is to reach both internal and external balance. Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy and Capital Mobility The target of monetary policy includes the achievement of desired level of economic growth, the domestic price level, the exchange rate or balance of payments. Open market operation, reserve ratio and discount rate are three methods used by central bank to control money supply. Expansionary monetary policy includes: purchase of securities in the open market reduction of the reserve ratio decrease in discount rate Expansionary monetary policy worsens BOP because of the higher income and lower interest rate. Contractionary monetary policy is used to cool down the economy. It improves BOP. Expansionary fiscal policy includes: increase in government spending decrease in tax rates Its impact on BOP is ambiguous. Contractionary fiscal policy is an important tool for government to fight inflation. Capital mobility refers to the extent to which capital can shifted between nations. Low capital mobility means it is not easy for capital movements between nations because of restrictions or barriers. BP curve is steep with low capital mobility. High capital mobility refers to the situation that capital flows are relative free. BP curve is thus flat. Perfect capital mobility means there is no restrictions on capital movements. BP curve with low capital mobility Interest rate (i) BP i1 B A i0 0 Y0 Y1 Y BP curve with high capital mobility Interest rate (i) BP B i1 A i0 0 Y0 Y1 Y BP curve with perfect capital mobility Interest rate (i) id0 = if0 BP id1 0 A Y0 Y1 Y The Effect of Policy Mix under Fixed Exchange Rate System Policy mix refers to the combination of monetary and fiscal policies. The two policies can be used in the same or opposite direction. For example, expansionary fiscal policy and contractionary monetary policy increase total output (income) and raise the interest rate. The effect of expansionary fiscal policy and contractionary monetary policy under fixed rate system with imperfect capital mobility Interest rate (i) BP LM’ B i1 C LM A IS’ i0 IS 0 Y0 Y2 Y1 Y The expansionary monetary policy has little effect on the economy if the exchange rate is not allowed to float. The expansionary monetary policy increases the money supply. Domestic currency has the pressure to depreciate in the foreign exchange market. In order to defend the fixed parity, domestic central bank must sell foreign currency and buy domestic currency. The expansionary monetary policy thus is offset. The expansionary monetary policy under fixed rate system with imperfect capital mobility Interest rate (i) BP LM LM’ i1 i0 A IS 0 Y0 Y1 Y Under the fixed exchange rate system, fiscal policy is more powerful than monetary policy in terms of affecting the aggregate output and balance-of-payments status. The capital mobility also influences the effectiveness of the economic policy. If the capital mobility is perfect, fiscal policy exerts its largest feasible effects on income. The fixed rate system and perfect capital mobility in a small country Interest rate (i) LM LM’ A B i0 BP IS’ IS 0 Y0 Y1 Y The effects of foreign economic policy on domestic economy Under the fixed exchange rate system, the policy of economic power such as the U.S. influences small country’s economy. The expansionary monetary policy has the “locomotive effect” on foreign economy. That is, the increase in domestic income leads to the increase in foreign income. The expansionary fiscal policy has the “beggar-thy-neighbor” effect. The locomotive effects of foreign expansionary monetary policy Interest rate (id) Interest rate (if) LMd LMf LMd’ id0 BPd A LMf’ if 0 BPf A B B BPd’ id1 BPf’ if 1 ISf ISf’ ISd 0 Yd0 Yd1 ISd’ Yd Yf 0 Yf0 Yf1 The beggar-thy-neighbor effects of foreign expansionary fiscal policy Interest rate (id) Interest rate (if) LMd’ LMd id1 LMf BPd’ B if 1 BPf’ B A id0 BPd A if 0 BPf ISd’ ISf ISf’ ISd Yd 0 Yd1 Yd0 Yf 0 Yf0 Yf1 Economic policy under floating exchange rate system Floating exchange rate system means a government has no obligation to defend the parity between its domestic currency and foreign currency. The BOP disequilibrium causes the BP shift right or left. The central bank has the monetary policy autonomy. Under floating exchange rate system, monetary policy exerts a strong influence over domestic aggregate output (income). The effect of the fiscal policy on the economy largely depends on the slope of the BP curve. The higher the capital mobility is, the higher the interest rate level. The income will be high but lower than the case of low capital mobility. The effects of expansionary monetary policy under floating exchange rate system Interest rate (i) BP LM BP’ LM’ A i0 i1 B IS’ IS 0 Y0 Y1 Y The effects of fiscal policy under floating exchange rate system Interest rate (i) Interest rate (i) BP BP’ LM i2 LM C BP’ B i1 i1 i2 B BP C A i0 A i0 IS’’ IS’ IS’ IS IS’’ IS 0 Y Y0 Y1 Y2 0 Y Y0 Y2 Y1 The effects of domestic economic policy under floating exchange rate system with perfect capital mobility Interest rate (i) Interest rate (i) LM LM LM’ B BP’ i1 A C A i0 BP i0 BP B BP’ i1 IS’ IS’ IS IS 0 Y Y0 Y1 Y2 0 Y Y0 Y1 The effects of domestic economic policy on foreign economy: a two-country model Under the floating exchange rate system, domestic expansionary monetary policy has beggar-thy-neighbor effect on the foreign economy. On the other hand, expansionary fiscal policy has the locomotive effect on the foreign economy. The effects of domestic expansionary monetary policy on the foreign economy Interest rate (id) Interest rate (if) LMd LMd’ id0 A B LMf BPd if 0 C B BPd’ id1 BPf A BPf’ if 1 ISd’ ISd’’ ISf ISf’ ISd Yd 0 Yd0 Yd2 Yd1 ISf’’ Yf 0 Yf1 Yf0 The effects of domestic expansionary fiscal policy on the foreign economy Interest rate (id) Interest rate (if) LMd id1 LMf B id2 BPd’ C if 1 BPf’ B A id0 BPd A if 0 BPf ISf’ ISd’ ISd’’ ISd ISf Yd 0 Yd0Yd2 Yd1 Yf 0 Yf0 Yf1