Download Average annual import trend (2003-12)

IATTO FORUM – EXPORT SUMMIT II
A survey on national promotion strategies
SEVE’s 3 year Export Business Plan for the Greek Economy
Dr. Tasos Alexandridis
SEVE, Executive Member of BoD
Ms. Maria Kechagia
Economic Analyst of Institute of Export Research & Studies
25 September 2013
1
Section A. Greek Export Performance
Section B. Export specialization
B.1 Markets
B.2 Sectors
B.3 Export Specialization Ratio (RCAsp)
Section C. RCAsp results
Section D. Discussion
2
Section A. Greek export performance
Current account and trade balance trends
GREECE
Source: NBG
3
Section A. Greek export performance
Exports of goods as % GDP EZ-17 (2012)
Source: Eurostat
Even though Greece still lags far behind the Eurozone average in export
performance, 14% contribution of exports of goods to the Greek GDP is a historical
record for Greece (taking however into consideration the Greek recession and
significant fall of the GDP)
4
Section A. Greek export performance
Greek export composition per sector
Food
Drinks & Tobacco
Non metalic products
Chemicals & Plastics
Oils and Fuels
Wood & Paper
Textiles & Clothing
Basic metals
Machinery & equiment
Transport
Other
Exports as a share
of total Greek
exports (2012)
Exports as a share
of industry
production (2009)
Average
Annual trend
(2003/12)
14,7
2,4
2,8
10,4
38,9
1,2
6,5
10,7
6,8
1,7
4,0
12,1
28,2
11,7
39,8
14,8
9,4
46,9
44,0
39,2
43,4
-
6,8
0,3
2,8
5,9
30,3
4,4
-5,8
10,8
3,8
4,5
10,3
Source: Eurostat
•Best performing merchandise non oil export sectors are basic metals, food
and chemicals & plastics
•Further improvements in cost competitiveness are essential to transform the
productive landscape of the economy
5
Section A. Greek export performance
Greek export composition per geographic region
Source: Eurostat
•Until 2010: EU preserves a constant high share of Greek exports
•2011-2012: The geographical diversification of exports of goods begins, due to the
proximity (eg. Turkey), combined with the rising wealth of the emerging economies
6
Section B. Export specialization
B.1 Markets
We focus our analysis on 6+2 markets
6 developing economies
Brazil
China
India
South Korea
Russia
Turkey
+2 developed economies
USA
Japan
7
Section B. Export specialization
B.1 Markets
Economic Analysis of trade flows. Greek exports to key target
markets in 2003 and 2012
Source: Eurostat
•Increasing importance of the target markets, as within 10 years, from 2003 to 2012, Greek
exports to the 6 developing economies grew from 7% to 15%
•Looking solely on 2012, Greek exports to Brazil rose by 101% (!), in South Korea by 71% and in
Japan by 44%, from the previous year
8
Section B. Export specialization
B.1 Markets
Development of Greek exports between 2003-2012 to 6+2 target
markets, the EU-27 and the rest of the world
Source: Eurostat
•The big rise from 2010 and onwards to the 6 developing target economies is mostly due to
mineral fuels in Turkey. However, still the trend is on the strong rise
9
Section B. Export specialization
B.1 Markets
Why Brazil?
•7th strongest economy in the world (GDP $ 2,3 trillion)
•GDP per capita raised almost 50% from 2004 ($ 8.100) till now ($ 12.000)
•In 2010, the industrial production was increased by 11,5% and in 2011 remained stable
•22th bigger import economy (more than $ 220 billion)
Why China?
•The 2nd strongest economy in the world (GDP $ 11,5 trillion)
•Real GDP growth 2012: 9.4%
•1st place in foreign reserves in the world ($ 3,2 trillion)
•1st place in FDI inflow
•Industrial production growth of 13.9%
•The 2nd largest importing economy in the world.In 2012 China’s imports were$ 1,75 trillion
10
Section B. Export specialization
B.1 Markets
Why India?
•The 3rd largest economy in the world (GDP $ 4.5 trillion)
•Low unemployment rate: 9.8%
•14th place in FDI inflow
•One of the major importing economies. In 2012 India’s imports were $ 488 billion
Why South Korea?
•12th strongest economy in the world (GDP $ 1,57 trillion)
•GDP per capita almost doubled in last 10 years (from $ 19.000 in 2002, to $33.000 in 2012)
•Industrial production raised by 12.1% in 2010 and 3.8% in 2011
11
Section B. Export specialization
B.1 Markets
Why Russia?
•The 6th largest economy in the world (GDP $ 2.4 trillion)
•4th place in reserve assets: $ 500 billion
•One of the major importing economies. Russia’s imports in 2012 were $ 315 billion
Why Turkey?
•16th largest economy in the world (GDP $ 1 trillion)
•Real GDP growth in 2012 was estimated at 8.5%
•Industrial production growth: 9.2%
12
Section B. Export specialization
B.1 Markets
Why USA?
•The strongest economy in the world (GDP $ 15.3 trillion)
•One of the highest per capita GDP in the world ($ 49,000)
•The country obtains $ 148 billion in foreign reserves
•The biggest importer in the world. In 2012, USA’s imports were $ 2.2 trillion
•10th place in economic freedom index
Why Japan?
•4th largest economy in the world (GDP $ 4.5 trillion)
•2nd place in foreign reserves in the world ($ 1.26 trillion)
•4th largest import economy imports. In 2012, Japan’s imports were $ 885 billion
•The country obtains the 3rd higher life expectancy rate in the world (84 years)
13
Section B. Export specialization
B.2 Sectors
Building on the EXPORT SUMMIT I presentation, we focus our
analysis on 10 Greek sectors & products, which have RCA>1 for
the period 2003-2012, when compared to the OECD countries.
RCA>1 means that
for the certain
period, this sector/
product has
comparative
advantage in
international
markets to another
market (s)
Source: Eurostat, author’s calculations
14
Section B. Export specialization
B.3 Export Specialization Ratio (RCAsp)
Very often the RCA index can be also be interpreted as the export
specialization ratio. This, a light modification of the simple RCA
index is made to allow us to focus on a particular market (s).
RCAsp is calculated as follows:
Similar to the RCA, RCAsp>1 reveals a comparative advantage of product j in market k, while if
RCAsp<1 reveals comparative disadvantage in market k.
15
Section B. Export specialization
B.3 Export Specialization Ratio (RCAsp)
Data
•We used export data for Greece and import data for the 6+2 target
economies
•The analysis employed sectoral data under the HS2 classification
•Data source: International Trade Center (ITC)
Relative EU import share for Greece =
share of target market’s imports from Greece/
share of target market’s imports from the EU
Note. The analysis of every sector included only the products with RCA>1 during the
period 2003-12 internationally. The rest of the products with RCA<1 were left behind.
16
Section C. RCAsp results
C.1 Non processed leather, leather & fur
RCA (2003-12) = 10,80
RCAsp
(2003-12)
Brazil
China
India
S.Korea
Russia
Turkey
USA
Japan
27,42
2,88
10,34
5,63
16,50
4,31
29,98
21,44
Source: ITC, author’s calculations
Average
annual
RCAsp
trend
(2003-12)
%
27,3
1,2
5,2
3,4
-13,6
5,7
0,8
2,9
Average
annual
import
trend
(2003-12)
%
-14,5
6,6
7,9
0,0
28,5
-0,4
-2,8
-2,0
exports as a
share of total
Greek exports
to the country
(2012)
%
0,0
4,1
0,0
1,4
29,0
8,8
0,8
0,1
Relative EU
import
share for
Greece
(2012)
%
0,0
0,6
0,0
3,9
28,1
10,0
0,9
0,5
•Greek non processed leather, leather & fur have comparative advantage in all target markets
•However, in Brazil, USA and Japan RCAsp is very high, but Greek exports too small in size
•Russia, China and India are growing markets in this sector. Greece up today has only exploited
its comparative advantage in fur only in the Russian market. The rest remain unexploited
17
Section C. RCAsp results
C.2 Animal or vegetable fats & oils
RCA (2003-12) = 7,30
Brazil
China
India
S.Korea
Russia
Turkey
USA
Japan
RCAsp
(2003-12)
Average
annual
RCAsp
trend
(2003-12)
%
Average
annual
import
trend
(2003-12)
%
exports as a
share of total
Greek exports
to the country
(2012)
%
Relative EU
import
share for
Greece
(2012)
%
5,71
3,16
1,24
8,88
3,51
3,24
11,59
11,52
-8,7
-6,2
-1,3
-8,5
4,4
-6,7
-13,4
-6,3
20,7
16,4
16,4
14,4
7,6
14,2
14,5
8,9
0,3
2,2
0,2
0,1
1,6
0,7
3,2
0,6
0,6
5,0
0,8
0,5
2,3
6,1
2,1
1,3
Source: ITC, author’s calculations
•Greek animal/ vegetable fats and oils enjoy comparative advantage in all target markets
• All target markets show growing demand in animal fats & oils during the last decade. Brazil displays
the highest annual import increase (20,7%). However, Greece exports only 0,3% of its production in
animal fats & oils in Brazil
18
•Except for Russia, there is a falling trend in Greece comparative advantage in every market over the
decade
Section C. RCAsp results
C.3 Prepared food, beverages, tobacco
RCA (2003-12) = 3,38
Brazil
China
India
S.Korea
Russia
Turkey
USA
Japan
RCAsp
(2003-12)
Average
annual
RCAsp
trend
(2003-12)
%
Average
annual
import
trend
(2003-12)
%
exports as a
share of total
Greek exports
to the country
(2012)
%
Relative EU
import
share for
Greece
(2012)
%
11,33
25,44
44,85
8,84
2,20
14,24
4,74
3,25
-5,8
-10,6
-7,8
-2,3
5,2
-2,6
-4,5
-2,4
19,1
24,3
26,9
9,0
8,7
11,4
5,7
6,4
0,1
0,2
0,1
0,4
2,8
1,0
6,6
0,7
0,3
0,2
0,3
1,1
1,3
0,7
1,2
0,4
Source: ITC, author’s calculations
•Very high RCAsp are recorded in India, China, Turkey and Brazil, much higher than the average RCA
(3,38). Greek exports of prepared food, beverages & tobacco are nearly zero in these markets, while
demand over the decade is steadily growing
•Preparations of fruit & vegetables and tobacco are the products that record the higher RCAsp in India
19 at
a product level
Section C. RCAsp results
C.4 Clothing
RCA (2003-12) = 2,46
Brazil
China
India
S.Korea
Russia
Turkey
USA
Japan
RCAsp
(2003-12)
Average
annual
RCAsp
trend
(2003-12)
%
Average
annual
import
trend
(2003-12)
%
exports as a
share of total
Greek exports
to the country
(2012)
%
Relative EU
import
share for
Greece
(2012)
%
5,90
5,09
12,86
5,12
4,08
2,49
2,02
2,13
-17,3
-8,9
-4,9
-10,8
-17,8
-10,3
-10,8
-11,5
21,2
9,1
10,0
6,8
24,5
8,1
1,2
4,9
0,0
4,8
0,0
0,1
1,1
14,6
1,2
1,5
0,1
4,6
0,1
0,6
0,9
17,4
0,5
1,1
Source: ITC, author’s calculations
•Except for China and Turkey, Greek clothing exports to the other target markets are very little in 2012
•At a product level, cotton and articles of knitted apparel show high RCAsp. Cotton in the USA, India and
20
Japan and knitted apparel in India and China
Section C. RCAsp results
C.5 Non metallic minerals
RCA (2003-12) = 2,02
Brazil
China
India
S.Korea
Russia
Turkey
USA
Japan
RCAsp
(2003-12)
Average
annual
RCAsp
trend
(2003-12)
%
Average
annual
import
trend
(2003-12)
%
exports as a
share of total
Greek exports
to the country
(2012)
%
Relative EU
import
share for
Greece
(2012)
%
4,01
6,43
3,90
4,72
3,36
6,16
5,29
5,18
-3,9
-5,0
-6,4
0,3
-4,5
-3,4
-0,4
0,4
17,0
17,2
25,3
6,5
20,1
12,5
1,6
3,6
2,1
17,0
0,7
0,4
1,5
3,0
8,6
0,3
3,8
8,7
1,8
2,4
1,7
5,6
4,9
1,1
Source: ITC, author’s calculations
•Greece is very active in marble-cement-suphur etc exports in China, taking advantage of its comparative
advantage in the market. The same occurs for the USA
21
•Still there are a lot of glowing market opportunities in all target economies to develop
Section C. RCAsp results
C.6 Mineral fuels
RCA (2003-12) = 1,90
Brazil
China
India
S.Korea
Russia
Turkey
USA
Japan
RCAsp
(2003-12)
Average
annual
RCAsp
trend
(2003-12)
%
Average
annual
import
trend
(2003-12)
%
exports as a
share of total
Greek exports
to the country
(2012)
%
Relative EU
import
share for
Greece
(2012)
%
0,83
1,14
0,43
0,50
10,18
0,70
0,82
0,50
19,2
9,4
18,1
14,6
28,6
15,7
16,0
15,0
18,9
28,2
25,1
17,4
12,4
18,4
9,9
14,1
0,4
0,8
0,0
1,0
0,0
20,3
3,3
0,0
0,0
0,2
0,2
3,9
0,0
33,1
0,2
4,9
Source: ITC, author’s calculations
•Apart from Russia, Greece has no comparative advantage in the rest of the target countries. However,
we export 20,3% of our mineral fuels to Turkey.
22
Section C. RCAsp results
C.7 Live animals, animal products
RCA (2003-12) = 1,71
Brazil
China
India
S.Korea
Russia
Turkey
USA
Japan
RCAsp
(2003-12)
Average
annual
RCAsp
trend
(2003-12)
%
Average
annual
import
trend
(2003-12)
%
exports as a
share of total
Greek exports
to the country
(2012)
%
Relative EU
import
share for
Greece
(2012)
%
6,17
8,51
122,80
4,84
2,40
31,43
5,78
1,95
-2,9
0,5
4,6
3,7
-0,2
-0,4
2,0
5,7
20,0
14,8
16,2
6,7
19,0
13,1
2,8
2,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,1
1,7
0,1
3,9
0,4
0,0
0,1
0,3
0,8
1,1
1,6
4,6
1,0
Source: ITC, author’s calculations
•A very high RCAsp is estimated for Greek exports of fisheries in the market of India (122,80), but in 2012
Greece exports 0,0% of fisheries in this market
•We are doing well in the USA, in fisheries and dairy products, having achieved a higher relative share in
23
the market, compared to the EU average. Nevertheless, there are still many opportunities hidden in the
emerging markets
Section C. RCAsp results
C.8 Vegetables & fresh fruits
RCA (2003-12) = 1,65
Brazil
China
India
S.Korea
Russia
Turkey
USA
Japan
RCAsp
(2003-12)
Average
annual
RCAsp
trend
(2003-12)
%
Average
annual
import
trend
(2003-12)
%
exports as a
share of total
Greek exports
to the country
(2012)
%
Relative EU
import
share for
Greece
(2012)
%
2,01
2,60
4,48
3,28
1,43
3,48
5,04
1,93
6,4%
-6,9%
4,3%
-0,8%
-0,4%
-0,1%
-5,2%
1,8%
8,2
22,6
15,2
10,2
17,9
11,5
9,3
4,8
0,0
0,1
0,1
0,1
9,6
3,4
0,6
0,1
0,0
0,5
0,7
0,5
7,4
7,3
0,6
0,1
Source: ITC, author’s calculations
•Growing demand is estimated in all the target economies during the past decade
•Greece has comparative advantage in all markets exporting vegetables & fresh fruits
24
•There is a higher relative EU import share for Greece in Russia and Turkey, which consist traditional
markets for the Greek fresh vegetables & fruits
Section C. RCAsp results
C.9 Basic metals
RCA (2003-12) = 1,24
Brazil
China
India
S.Korea
Russia
Turkey
USA
Japan
RCAsp
(2003-12)
Average
annual
RCAsp
trend
(2003-12)
%
Average
annual
import
trend
(2003-12)
%
exports as a
share of total
Greek exports
to the country
(2012)
%
Relative EU
import
share for
Greece
(2012)
%
2,88
2,51
4,45
2,52
3,12
2,57
3,50
4,17
-4,8
-4,6
-4,1
-4,2
-1,9
-4,9
-4,4
-0,6
20,0
18,6
24,3
13,3
18,8
16,2
7,6
6,5
0,2
2,4
0,9
0,1
0,9
5,7
7,7
0,1
0,2
0,6
1,1
0,2
0,7
4,8
2,3
0,5
Source: ITC, author’s calculations
•Aluminum is the product with the highest RCAsp in the sector, especially in Brazil and China
•Greece is active in the US, Turkey and China, while in the rest of the markets, Greek exports have25
just
started to grow
Section C. RCAsp results
C.10 Chemicals & Plastics
RCA (2003-12) = 1,19
Brazil
China
India
S.Korea
Russia
Turkey
USA
Japan
RCAsp
(2003-12)
Average
annual
RCAsp
trend
(2003-12)
%
Average
annual
import
trend
(2003-12)
%
exports as a
share of total
Greek exports
to the country
(2012)
%
Relative EU
import
share for
Greece
(2012)
%
1,10
2,09
3,02
3,27
1,22
1,31
2,37
2,99
-3,0
-1,1
-6,1
-3,4
-3,2
-2,0
-5,1
-5,9
16,5
13,2
25,6
11,1
19,1
11,5
7,1
11,3
0,1
0,4
0,1
0,1
1,5
8,1
0,8
0,1
0,0
0,1
0,1
0,0
0,6
2,1
0,1
0,1
Source: ITC, author’s calculations
•As in the former sectors, there is growing demand, falling trend in the RCAsp through the decade
•Greece enjoys comparative advantage in all the target economies, while the country is yet active only
26 in
Turkey and Russia
Section D. Discussion
Opportunities for the internationalization of European SMEs (2011)
European Commission
Directorate-General for Enterprise and Industry
Figure: Co-ordination of internationalization support for SMEs
27
Section D. Discussion
Overall recommendations: internationalization support at an EU
level
•Raising the profile of support for internationalization is required within
the context established by Europe 2020. The overall policy should be
practically supported and built on what already exists, at some point
•To support the internationalization of Greek SMEs and achieve a
sustainable export driven growth, Greek exporters need a National
Moderator, from the private sector, to maximize the relevance and
optimize the coordination of all national attempts for extroversion
support
28
Section D. Discussion
SEVE’s proposal to:
-Task Force
-Ministry of Development and Competitiveness
-Regions of Macedonia and Thrace
-Greek banks
-Greek Business Associations
-Greek enterprises
29
Thank you for your attention
30