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Flash indicator of
macroecnomic inflation
CPI or flash GDP daflator ?
Flash indicator of macroecnomic inflation
Most of economists around the world use
CPI.
Why?
1. CPI is a really “flash” indicator
2. CPI looks like a good aproximation for
the more fundamental GDP deflator
Flash indicator of macroecnomic inflation
BUT
CPI does not indicate real macroeconomic
inflalation because prices for capital goods
and commodities are not included
Price bubbles can not be reflected
Flash indicator of macroecnomic inflation
110
108
106
104
102
100
98
96
CPI
GDP deflator
94
92
90
Q105
Q305
Q106
Q306
Q107
Q307
Q108
Q308
Q109
Q309
Flash indicator of macroecnomic inflation
Conclusions:
• Flash GDP should be estimated at both
current and constant prices
• GDP implicite deflator should be estimated
also for monthly time series
• CPI should be replaced by flash GDP
deflator as a basic indicator of
macroeconomic inflation
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