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South Africa and Climate Change Economy • Middle-income, emerging market with and abundant supply of natural resources • Well developed financial, legal, communications, and energy and transport sectors • 10th largest stock exchange in the world • Modern infrastructure supporting an efficient distribution of goods to major urban centers throughout the region Poverty • • • • Apartheid- dual society 25.2% of population is unemployed (2000) 50% of population living below poverty line Exacerbates health risks: malaria, TB, HIV – 21.5% of the population is infected with HIV – By 2010, 21.7% of the adult population is expected to be infected with HIV – Rapidly declining life expectancy • Age dependency ration: 64.4 International Cooperation • UNFCC: – ratification August 1997 – Entry into force: November 1997 • Kyoto Protocol – Ratification: July 2002 – Entry into Force: February 2005 GDP 250 USD (billions) 200 150 100 50 0 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 Year 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Carbon Dioxide Statistics • 373 million metric tons of Carbon Dioxide from Energy • 9.1 tons Carbon Dioxide per capita • 3.2 tons Carbon Dioxide per dollar GDP • Africa as a whole accounted for only 4% of 1998 Carbon Dioxide Emissions Natural Resources • • Formed historical base of economy World’s largest percentages of reserves of ores of: – – – – • Manganese: 80% Chromium: 68% Platinum group metals: 56% Gold: 39% Mining is the most important earner of foreign exchange in the economy – 1990s: 41% of total exports – 1997: mining industry contributed 8.9% to gross domestic fixed investment – 1997: sales of primary mineral products account 37.3% of total export revenue • Coal is the third largest minerals export earner – 5th largest producer – 9.8 billion Rand in 1999 • Number of initiatives to build on and increase the economic benefits derived from domestic, regional and international tourism 2000 Primary Energy Supply 2000 Final Energy Use by Sector Other 1% Agriculture 3% Transport 28% Industry 47% Residential 17% Commerce 4% Gg Carbon Dioxide Equivalents Total industrial sector business-as-usual process emissions (1990 to 2030) 100000 90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year 2015 2020 2025 2030 Renewable Energy • 1999: Renewable energy accounted for 9% of total energy use – Mostly from fuel and dung • White Paper – Looked at potential for renewable energy sources – Identified key resources: • • • • • • • Wind Biomass Hydro Solar Wave energy Ocean currents Energy from waste Barriers to Renewable Energy • Expensive • High initial investment • Economic and social system of energy services based on centralized development • Financial, legal, regulatory, and organizational barrier • Lack of non-discriminatory open access to key energy infrastructure Energy Efficiency Strategy • Goal to reduce emissions by 12% of business-asusual predictions by 2014 • Improve the health of the nation • Creation of jobs • Energy Poverty Alleviation • Reduced local Pollution • Reduced Carbon Dioxide Emissions • Improved Industrial Competitiveness • Increased Energy Security • Defer additional generation capacity Vulnerability • • • • • • Health Sector Water Resources Rangelands Agriculture Forestry Biodiversity Vulnerability • Health Sector – Malaria • Environmental factors influence the distribution, transmission intensity, outcome, small-scale variation and seasonality • Climate is considered the most important factor in limiting global distribution • Expected extension of the malaria prone areas CDM • Pushed for CDMs at COP8 • 2 projects registered (of 151 total projects) • In continental africa-only four projects total • Average Annual Reductions from CDMs 25,739 Durban Landfill Gas to Energy Project • First project in Africa • Agreement between Druban and the World Bank • Install 180 wells to capture methane from 3 landfills • 3.8m tonnes of CERs will be sold for $15m • Reduces emissions in two ways Other Projects • Cities for climate change – Energy efficiency in 8 cities • Coalbed Methane Outreach Program – Capturing coal mine methane for energy production
