Download Group4

GDP
8
Output
6
1
4
2
2
3
4
Year
- Technically, we have not had a recession since 1991
20
08
20
07
20
06
20
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
00
-2
20
01
0
Month/Year
Jan-08
Jul-07
Jan-07
Jul-06
Jan-06
Jul-05
Jan-05
Jul-04
Jan-04
Jul-03
Jan-03
Jul-02
Jan-02
Jul-01
Jan-01
Jul-00
Jan-00
Interest Rate
US Interest Rate
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Series1
Month/Year
Jan-08
Jan-07
Jan-06
Jan-05
Jan-04
Jan-03
Jan-02
Jan-01
20
08
20
07
20
06
20
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
01
20
00
-2
Jan-00
Interest Rate
Output
GDP
8
6
1
4
2
2
3
0
4
Year
US Interest Rate
7
6
5
4
3
Series1
2
1
0
Series Id:
lns14000000
Seasonal Adjusted
Series title:
(Seas) Unemployment Rate
Labor force status: Unemployment rate
Type of data:
Percent
Age:
16 years and over
Year
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
1998 4.6 4.6
4.7 4.3
4.4
4.5 4.5 4.5
4.6 4.5 4.4
4.4
1999 4.3 4.4
4.2 4.3
4.2
4.3 4.3 4.2
4.2 4.1 4.1
4.0
2000 4.0 4.1
4.0 3.8
4.0
4.0 4.0 4.1
3.9 3.9 3.9
3.9
2001 4.2 4.2
4.3 4.4
4.3
4.5 4.6 4.9
5.0 5.3 5.5
5.7
2002 5.7 5.7
5.7 5.9
5.8
5.8 5.8 5.7
5.7 5.7 5.9
6.0
2003 5.8 5.9
5.9 6.0
6.1
6.3 6.2 6.1
6.1 6.0 5.8
5.7
2004 5.7 5.6
5.8 5.6
5.6
5.6 5.5 5.4
5.4 5.5 5.4
5.4
2005 5.2 5.4
5.2 5.1
5.1
5.0 5.0 4.9
5.1 5.0 5.0
4.8
2006 4.7 4.7
4.7 4.7
4.7
4.6 4.7 4.7
4.5 4.4 4.5
4.4
2007 4.6 4.5
4.4 4.5
4.5
4.6 4.7 4.7
4.7 4.8 4.7
5.0
2008 4.9 4.8
5.1 5.0
Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)
Consumer Confidence Index
• Index is 57.2 in May, down form April’s 62.8
• Consumer Confidence at a 16 yearl low (1992)
• Consumers inflation expectation rising
– High gas prices
– Overall rising prices
• Worries about the job market
Recommendations
• Keep Interest rate stable
– Avoid a liquidity trap
– Wait to realize the impact of the stimulus
package
– Keep inflationary pressures low