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SEOUL FINANCIAL FORUM Development of Korea As An International Financial Hub November 20, 2003 INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL CENTER • What ? • Why ? • When ? WHAT ? • Domestic Financial Center ? • International Financial Center ? FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION RAISING CAPITAL . . . . . . ALLOCATING IT TO PRODUCTIVE USES FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION COMPANIES DEPOSITORS W W FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION COMPANIES DEPOSITORS W USES W SOURCES DOMESTIC FINANCIAL CENTER DOMESTIC DEPOSITORS DOMESTIC COMPANIES W USES W SOURCES INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL CENTER INTERNATIONAL DEPOSITORS INTERNATIONAL COMPANIES W USES W SOURCES FINANCIAL CENTERS POPULATION Millions of People 300 290.3 250 200 150 127.2 100 60.1 48.3 7.4 4.6 3.9 2.5 HONG KONG SINGAPORE IRELAND DUBAI (UAE) 50 KOREA BRITAIN JAPAN USA 0 Source : CIA World Factbook INTEGRATED FINANCIAL CENTER DOMESTIC DEPOSITORS DOMESTIC COMPANIES W USES W SOURCES INTERNATIONAL DEPOSITORS INTERNATIONAL COMPANIES W USES W SOURCES WHY ? • Because We Can . . . • Because We Must . . . • Because We Will Benefit . . . BECAUSE WE CAN . . . • We Have The Basics . . . • We Have Been Making Progress . . . • We Are Very Close To Realization . . . MARKETS FOR CAPITAL VISION INTEGRATED STRATEGY DEBT MARKETS EQUITY MARKETS DERIVATIVES MARKETS FX MARKETS INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL CENTER VISION INTEGRATED STRATEGY COMMERCIAL BANKS DEBT INSURANCE ASSET MARKETS COMPANIES MANAGERS EQUITY BROKERAGE INVESTMENT MARKETS & SECURITIES BANKS HOUSES DERIVATIVES MARKETS FX MARKETS SERVICE PROVIDERS INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL CENTER VISION INTEGRATED STRATEGY COMMERCIAL BANKS DEBT INSURANCE ASSET MARKETS COMPANIES MANAGERS EQUITY BROKERAGE INVESTMENT MARKETS & SECURITIES BANKS SERVICE PROVIDERS HOUSES DERIVATIVES MARKETS FX MARKETS TRANSACTION INFRASTRUCTURE ACCOUNTING STANDARDS - DISCLOSURE - CORPORATE GOVERNANCE SKILLS - EXPERIENCE - LICENSING - LANGUAGE FIDUCIARY RESPONSIBILITY - PROFESSIONAL STANDARDS & PRACTICES - COMPLIANCE SOUND REGULATORY INFRASTRUCTURE - EFFECTIVE SUPERVISION - INDUSTRY CONSULTATION ROBUST CONTRACT LAW - EFFICIENT DISPUTE RESOLUTION MECHANISMS - PREDICTABLE ENVIRONMENT FINANCIAL REFORM IN KOREA BANKING REFORMS IN KOREA 1997 1999 2001 Underdeveloped Highly Developed 1 2 Congo Thailand Korea Indonesia 3 4 Japan 5 6 7 8 Scandinavia Singapore 9 10 Netherlands Canada France United United States Kingdom Key Criteria 1. Underlying credit rating skills and risk management skills 2. Strength and consistency of regulation and supervisory approach 3. Breadth and depth of financing options available (e.g., capital markets – long-term debt market) 4. Domestic players underlying strengths and competitiveness on global scale 5. Underlying infrastructure efficiency (e.g., payments and exchanges) Source: McKinsey & Co. ASIAN FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS – TOP 100 TOP 100 ASIAN FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS Market value (USD million) 1997 • Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group • Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. • UFJ Holdings 56,799 32,035 26,344 In 1997 there was no Korean player in the Top 100 How Korea has changed None ! Market value (USD million) 2001 • Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group • Nomra Holdings Inc. • Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. 34,313 25,179 16,468 In 2001 there were 8 Korean companies ranked in the Top 100 with Kookmin Bank ranked in the Top 20 14. Kookmin Bank Corp. 23. Samsung Securities Co. Ltd. 38. Chohung Bank 44. Hana Bank 66. Daeshin Securities Co. 73. Daewoo Securities Co. 82. KorAm Bank Ltd. 86. Good Morning Securities 7,132 3,402 2,140 1,687 1,232 1,167 963 911 * In terms of market capitalization, at the end of 1997 and 2001 Source : Global Vantage; McKinsey analysis RELATIVE POSITIONS Development Relative to Best Possible DEBT MARKETS EQUITY MARKETS FX MARKETS DERIVATIVES MARKETS MARKET PARTICIPANTS STRUCTURAL BASE LEGEND SHANGHAI KOREA LONDON OPTIMAL TOKYO SINGAPORE HONG KONG RELATIVE POSITIONS Development Relative to Best Possible DEBT MARKETS EQUITY MARKETS FX MARKETS DERIVATIVES MARKETS MARKET PARTICIPANTS STRUCTURAL BASE LEGEND SHANGHAI KOREA LONDON OPTIMAL TOKYO SINGAPORE HONG KONG BECAUSE WE MUST . . . • Global Environment . . . • Regional Environment . . . • Domestic Environment . . . THE “GLOBAL ECONOMY” All the rest is only 16% NORTH AMERICA 400 million people 1999 GDP = $10.4 trillion EUROPE 580 million people 1999 GDP = $9.4 trillion NORTH ASIA 1,470 million people 1999 GDP = $6.3 trillion 34% of World GDP 30% of World GDP 20% of World GDP THE “GLOBAL ECONOMY” NORTH AMERICA 400 million people 1999 GDP = $10.4 trillion EUROPE 580 million people 1999 GDP = $9.4 trillion NORTH ASIA 1,470 million people 1999 GDP = $6.3 trillion 34% of World GDP 30% of World GDP 20% of World GDP THE “GLOBAL ECONOMY” THE “GLOBAL ECONOMY” GLOBAL CHALLENGES • Poor Returns For Investors – Interest Rates Low – Stock Markets Weak – Bond Markets Under Pressure • Corporate Governance Issues . . . • Accounting Practices . . . • Fund Management Issues . . . • Mature Economies . . . A Lot Of Money Looking For More Trust, Less Danger, and Better Returns WHERE THE ECONOMY IS . . . WHERE THE ECONOMY IS . . . WHERETHE THE ECONOMY ECONOMY ISIS. .. .. . WHERE WHERETHE THE ECONOMY ECONOMY ISIS. .. .. . WHERE CHINA – WHERE ECONOMY WHERE THE THE ECONOMY IS .IS. .. . . CHINA – WHERE THE PEOPLE ARE . . . CHINA – ECONOMIC REGIONS . . . ? CHINA – ECONOMIC REGIONS . . . ? THE GLOBAL ECONOMY Share of World GDP 2002 - 2040 Percent of World GDP 100% 90% Rest of World 80% 70% Europe 60% Other North-East Asia 50% China 40% Japan 30% 20% North America 10% 2040 2039 2038 2037 2036 2035 2034 2033 2032 2031 2030 2029 2028 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 0% Source : World Bank, Market Force Projections - before inflation, at constant FX rates REGIONAL FINANCING FOREIGN CURRENCY RESERVES Top 4 Countries in the World Japan $ 460.7 billion China $ 258.6 billion Taiwan $ 157.0 billion Korea $ 116.7 billion ____________ TOTAL : $ 993.0 billion Source : Korea Ministry of Finance & Economy, September 2002 KOREAN ECONOMY Real GDP Billions of 1995 Korean Won 10,000,000 1,000,000 CAGR (1962 - 1997) 8.2% CAGR (1962 - 1979) 9.2% CAGR (1980 - 1997) 8.0% 100,000 CAGR (1953 - 1962) 3.9% 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 1972 1970 1968 1966 1964 1962 1960 1958 1956 1954 1952 1950 10,000 Source : Bank of Korea (New Series) KOREAN ECONOMY Real GDP Billions of 1995 Korean Won 10,000,000 1,000,000 CAGR (1962 - 1997) 8.2% CAGR (1962 - 1979) 9.2% CAGR (1980 - 1997) 8.0% 100,000 CAGR (1953 - 1962) 3.9% 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 1972 1970 1968 1966 1964 1962 1960 1958 1956 1954 1952 1950 10,000 Source : Bank of Korea (New Series) LITTLE BALLERINA ON A TIGHTROPE Real GDP Billions of 1995 Korean Won 10,000,000 1,000,000 CAGR (1962 - 1997) 8.2% CAGR (1962 - 1979) 9.2% CAGR (1980 - 1997) 8.0% 100,000 CAGR (1953 - 1962) 3.9% 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 1972 1970 1968 1966 1964 1962 1960 1958 1956 1954 1952 1950 10,000 Source : Bank of Korea (New Series) THE ELEPHANT HAS AWAKENED . . . Real GDP Billions of 1995 Korean Won 10,000,000 1,000,000 CAGR (1962 - 1997) 8.2% 8% PER ANNUM GROWTH RATE CAGR (1962 - 1979) 9.2% CAGR (1980 - 1997) 8.0% 100,000 CAGR (1953 - 1962) 3.9% 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 1972 1970 1968 1966 1964 1962 1960 1958 1956 1954 1952 1950 10,000 Source : Bank of Korea (New Series) DANCING ON THE BACK OF THE ELEPHANT Real GDP Billions of 1995 Korean Won 10,000,000 8% PER ANNUM GROWTH RATE 1,000,000 CAGR (1962 - 1997) 8.2% CAGR (1962 - 1979) 9.2% CAGR (1980 - 1997) 8.0% 100,000 CAGR (1953 - 1962) 3.9% 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 1972 1970 1968 1966 1964 1962 1960 1958 1956 1954 1952 1950 10,000 Source : Bank of Korea (New Series) I’d like to talk to you about your mother . . . Others Promissory Note CD Corporate Bonds CP Short-Term Bonds Short-Term Lending Financial Bonds RP Government Bonds Venture Capital Current Deposits Stocks 300 Bank Trust Investment Trust Long-Term Bonds Insurance Products Time Deposits Deposits KOREAN INDIVIDUALS Financial Assets by Type - December 1998 Krw trillions 400 Krw 1,152 trillion 200 100 0 Source : Bank of Korea KOREA - INTEREST RATES 3-Year Corporate Bond Rate Percent 35 30 25 20 15 10 11% – 15% 7% – 11% 5 5% – 8% 12/1/02 12/1/01 12/1/00 12/1/99 12/1/98 12/1/97 12/1/96 12/1/95 12/1/94 12/1/93 12/1/92 12/1/91 12/1/90 0 Source : Bank of Korea 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 1979 1978 1977 1976 1975 1974 1973 1972 1971 1970 RELEASE OF THE CAGED TIGER ? Index 100 = 1977 10,000 1,000 100 10 KOREA • LARGE AMOUNT OF ASSETS WITH FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS • LARGE, ACTIVE DOMESTIC STOCK MARKET • LARGE, ACTIVE DOMESTIC GOVERNMENT BOND MARKET • LARGE DOMESTIC CORPORATE BOND MARKET • LARGE AND GROWING DOMESTIC DERIVATIVES MARKET • MANY DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS IN ALL SECTORS • SIGNIFICANT EFFORTS TO REFORM DOMESTIC MARKET PRACTICES AND BEHAVIOR KOREA • MASSIVE LIBERALIZATION OF FOREIGN INVESTMENT • HUGE INCREASE IN FDI • SUBSTANTIAL FOREIGN PORTFOLIO HOLDINGS • CONTINUING IMPROVEMENTS IN “HONEST ACCOUNTING” BUT : • MANY CORPORATES STILL FAIL TO EARN SUFFICIENT RETURNS TO REPAY THEIR DEBT – “INSOLVENT” • MANY CORPORATES FAIL TO GENERATE SUFFICIENT RETURNS TO JUSTIFY EQUITY INVESTMENT • RISKS CONTINUE • INADEQUATE RETURNS UNBALANCED YIN ANDUSERS YANG DOMESTIC INTERNET DOMESTIC CHALLENGES • Poor Returns For Investors – Interest Rates Low – Stock Markets Weak – Bond Markets Under Pressure • Corporate Governance Issues . . . • Accounting Practices . . . • Fund Management Issues . . . • Maturing Economy . . . A Lot Of Money Looking For More Trust, Less Danger, and Better Returns CHANGING WORLD FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARIES MUST CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY – To Survive in the Future World – To Better Serve Korean Families – To Create Real Value RE-BALANCING YIN ANDUSERS YANG DOMESTIC INTERNET KOREA’S FUTURE Achieving the economic level that Korea deserves over the next decade LEADING COUNTRIES GDP Per Capita : 1999 GDP per capita in U.S. Dollars (billions) 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 South Korea Belgium Australia Netherlands Canada Italy France United Kingdom Germany Japan United States 0 Source : WEFA BECAUSE WE WILL BENEFIT . . . • GDP . . . • Employment . . . • Knowledge-Based Economy . . . • Survive The Global Storms . . . GDP . . . + Krw 33 trillion in 2002 Equivalent + 5.6% Value-Added Impact NOTE : Only reflects primary effects – does not include secondary benefits from improved domestic capital allocation and enhancement of corporate sector EMPLOYMENT . . . + 450,000 Jobs (2.0)% Reduction in Unemployment Rate KNOWLEDGE-BASED ECONOMY . . . • Intelligent Financial Intermediation is a Vital Component of a Knowledge-Based Economy • Other Sectors of Knowledge-Based Economy Can Only Be Fuelled by Advanced Financial Intermediation SURVIVING THE GLOBAL STORMS . . . • A Strong Financial Sector is Vital to Survive The Coming Global Storms Benefits of an International Bond Market Creates Strength and Stability in All Financial Markets Creates Long Term Stable Investment Opportunities for Insurance Companies, Banks and other Financial Institutions Strengthens Pension Systems Improves Corporate Balance Sheets Benefits of International Asset Management Attracts high-quality personnel to Korea Establishes new bench-marking in credit control, analysis, portfolio management, ethical conduct Gives domestic companies greater access to foreign capital Benefits of Liberalized FX Market Expands access to the global capital pool Allows internationalization of the Bond Market Allows expansion of the fund management market Expands the internationalization of the Equity Market Enhances Korea’s advanced image and attractiveness to foreign corporations and regional headquarters Benefits of an Open Legal Market Increases the pool of available legal talent in Korea (reduces conflicts) Increases GDP and tax revenues from legal services Permits fair competition among domestic and international law firms Benefits of an Regulatory Globalization Permits financial institutions to operate in a consistent predictable environment Improves Competitiveness of Domestic Financial institutions Improves Competitiveness of Domestic Corporations Creates an environment where foreign financial institutions will want to operate SPECIFIC ACTIONS NEEDED Internationalize the Bond Market Internationalize the Asset Management Market Liberalize Foreign Exchange Controls Internationalize the Legal Market Bring Global Standards to Regulations and Regulatory Oversight An International Financial Center in Korea Is : A Realistic and Achievable Goal And A Benefit to All Sectors of the Korean Economy WHEN ? • Change Will Take Time . . . • Others Are Not Standing Still . . . • WE MUST START RIGHT AWAY . . . With The Same Energy And Vigor That We Give To Other Core Initiatives ! KOREA – VISION OF THE FUTURE Enough of The Speeches . . . – IT’S TIME FOR ACTION ! We Can Make The Speeches Again Afterwards SEOUL FINANCIAL FORUM CLIMBING THE MOUNTAINS OF THE FUTURE HELPING KOREA TO REACH THE TOP