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1. DETERMINING THE LEVEL OF CONSUMPTION Learning Objectives 1. Explain and graph the consumption function and the saving function, explain what the slopes of these curves represent, and explain how the two are related to each other. 2. Compare the current income hypothesis with the permanent income hypothesis, and use each consumption. 3. Discuss two factors that can cause the consumption function to shift upward or downward. 1.1 Consumption and Disposable Personal Income • A consumption function is the relationship between consumption and disposable personal income. Plotting a Consumption Function Point on curve A B C D E Δyd(billions) $0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 ΔC(billions) $300 700 1,100 1,500 1,900 Consumption per period (billions of dollars) 2000 D 1500 C 1000 500 E ΔC=$400 B ΔYd=$500 A 500 1000 1500 C=$300 billion+0.8Yd EQUATION 1.1 0 0 EQUATION 1.2 2000 MPC= ΔC/ Δyd =400/500=0.8 Disposable personal income per period (billions of dollars) • The marginal propensity to consume is the ratio of the change in consumption (ΔC) to the change in disposable personal income (ΔYd).relationship between consumption and disposable personal income. Consumption and Personal Saving • Personal saving is the disposable personal income not spent on consumption during a particular period. EQUATION 1.3 Pers sav dis pe in – c n • • Saving function is the relationship between personal saving in any period and disposable personal income in that period. Marginal propensity to save is the ratio of the change in personal saving (ΔS) to the change in disposable personal income (ΔYd). EQUATION 1.4 S MPS Yd EQUATION 1.5 MPC MPS 1 Consumption and Personal Saving Point on curve A B C D E Δyd(billions) $0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 ΔC(billions) $300 700 1,100 1,500 1,900 ΔC(billions) -$300 -200 -100 0 100 Consumption, saving per period (billions $ 3000 2500 E 2000 D 1500 1000 C ΔC=$400 B ΔYd=$500 500 A 45Ο 0 C’ 500 E’ D’ ΔS=$100 B’ -500 A’ 0 Consumption function ΔYd=$500 1000 1500 2000 Disposable personal income per period (billions $) Saving function 1.2 Current Versus Permanent Income • • • The current income hypothesis states that consumption in any one period depends on income during that period. Permanent income is the average annual income people expect to receive for the rest of their lives. The permanent income hypothesis states that consumption in any period depends on permanent income. 1.3 Other Determinants of Consumption • • Changes in real wealth Changes in expectations C2 Consumption per year C1 Disposable personal income per year Decrease in level of consumption C1 C2 Consumption per year Increase in level of consumption Disposable personal income per year 2. THE AGGREGATE EXPENDITURES MODEL Learning Objectives 1. Explain and illustrate the aggregate expenditures model and the concept of equilibrium real GDP. 2. Distinguish between autonomous and induced aggregate expenditures and explain why a change in autonomous expenditures leads to a multiplied change in equilibrium real GDP. 3. Discuss how adding taxes, government purchases, and net exports to a simplified aggregate expenditures model affects the multiplier and hence the impact on real GDP that arises from an initial change in autonomous expenditures. 2. THE AGGREGATE EXPENDITURES MODEL • The aggregate expenditures model is a model that relates aggregate expenditures to the level of real GDP. • Aggregate expenditures are the sum of planned levels of consumption, investment, government purchases, and net exports at a given price level. 2.1 The Aggregate Expenditures Model: A Simplified View • • Planned investment is the level of investment firms intend to make in a period. Unplanned investment is investment during a period that firms did not intend to make. EQUATION 2.1 • • I Ip I U Autonomous aggregate expenditures are expenditures that do not vary with the level of real GDP. Induced aggregate expenditures are expenditures that vary with real GDP. Autonomous and Induced Aggregate Expenditures Autonomous and Induced Consumption C C C a i • RECALL THE FOLLOWING FROM PREVIOUS SLIDES EQUATION 2.2 EQUATION 2.3 C $ 300 billion a C 0 .8 Y i Plotting the Aggregate Expenditure Curve • The aggregate expenditure function is the relationship of aggregate expenditure to the value of real GDP. EQUATION 2.4 I $ 1 , 100 billion p EQUATION 2.5 EQUATION 2.6 AE C I p AE $ 1 , 400 0 . 8 Y Plotting the Aggregate Expenditure Curve Point on curve A B C D E F ΔY (billions) $0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 ΔAE(billions) $1,400 3,000 4,600 6,200 7,800 9,400 Aggregate expenditures per year (billions of dollars) 10000 Aggregate expenditure 8000 E F D 6000 C 4000 2000 ΔAE=$1,600 B A Slope= ΔAE /ΔY=0.8 ΔY=$2,000 0 0 2000 4000 6000 Real GDP (billions of dollars) per year 8000 10000 Determining Equilibrium in the Aggregate Expenditures Model Adjusting to Equilibrium Real GDP A Change in Autonomous Aggregate Expenditures Changes Equilibrium Real GDP The Multiplied Effect of an increase in Autonomous Aggregate Expenditures Round of spending Increase in real GDP (billions of dollars) 1 $300 2 240 3 192 4 154 5 123 6 98 7 79 8 63 9 50 10 40 11 32 12 26 Subsequent rounds Total increase in real GDP +103 $1,500 Computation of The Multiplier • The multiplier is the number by which we multiply an initial change in aggregate demand to get the full amount of the shift in the aggregate demand curve. EQUATION 2.7 ΔY eq Multiplier ΔA Computation of The Multiplier • The marginal propensity to consume and the multiplier ΔY Δ A MPC ΔY eq eq EQUATION 2.8 Subtract the MPC ΔYeq term from both sides of the equations. ΔY MPC ΔY Δ A eq eq Factor out the ΔYeq term on the left: ΔY ( 1 MPC ) Δ A eq Finally, solve for the multiplier ΔY 1 eq EQUATION 2.9 Δ A( 1 MPC ) 1 EQUATION 2.10 Multiplier MPS We can rearrange equation 2.9 to compute the impact of a change in autonomous aggregate expenditure. Δ A EQUATION 2.11 ΔY eq 1 MPC 2.2 The Aggregate Expenditures Model in a More Realistic Economy • • Taxes and the aggregate expenditure function The addition of government purchases and net exports 3. AGGREGATE EXPENDITURES AND AGGREGATE DEMAND Learning Objectives 1. Explain and illustrate how a change in the price level affects the aggregate expenditures curve. 2. Explain and illustrate how to derive an aggregate demand curve from the aggregate expenditures curve for different price levels. 3. Explain and illustrate how an increase or decrease in autonomous aggregate expenditures affects the aggregate demand curve. 3.1 Aggregate Expenditures Curves and Price Levels • The wealth effect is the tendency for price level changes to change real wealth and consumption. • The interest rate effect is the tendency for a higher price level to reduce the real quantity of money, raise interest rates, and reduce investment. • The international trade effect is the impact of different price levels on the level of net exports. 12,000 C 10,000 AEp=0.5 AEp=1.0 8,000 B 6,000 AEp=1.5 4,000 A 2,000 Aggregate expenditures (billions of $) Aggregate expenditures (billions of $) From Aggregate Expenditures to Aggregate Demand 0 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 Axis Real GDP (billions of base period $) per year 2.0 1.5 A’ 1.0 B’ Aggregate demand 0.5 C’ 0.0 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 Axis Real GDP (billions of base period $) per year 3.2 The Multiplier and Changes in Aggregate Demand 2.0 Aggregate expenditures (billions of $) 10,000 AEp=1.0 AEp=1.0 8,000 AEp=1.5 E $1,000 AEp=1.5 6,000 B 4,000 D 2,000 Aggregate expenditures (billions of $) 12,000 D’ 1.5 A’ 1.0 E’ $2,000 B’ $2,000 0.5 AD2 Aggregate demand AD1 0.0 $1,000 A 0 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 Axis Real GDP (billions of base period $) per year Axis Real GDP (billions of base period $) per year