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Agenda item 2 United Nations Economic Commission for Europe Statistical Division Summary of 2008 SNA implementation plans UNECE Group of Experts on National Accounts Geneva, 6-9 May 2014 Overview 1. 2008 SNA implementation tables 2. Stage 1 – review of strategic documents 3. Stage 2 – review of supporting work 4. Stage 3 – development of national accounts May 2014 UNECE Statistical Division Slide 2 2008 SNA implementation tables • UNECE tables for formulation of national plans • Based on 3 stages and milestones for the 2008 SNA change over, by ISWGNA • Structure refined during the Workshop in Kiev 2011 • Detailed actions points added based on country discussions • Help identify problems and priorities • First survey in 2012: 19 countries • Regional recommendations by UNECE • Second survey in 2014: 18 countries updated the tables May 2014 UNECE Statistical Division Slide 3 2008 SNA implementation tables Stage 1: Review of national or regional statistical strategic papers to include there the 2008 SNA implementation - Identification of and consultation with the main stakeholders for the 2008 SNA implementation. Institutional agreements. Prioritization for 2008 SNA, based on user needs and resources. Inclusion of the implementation of the 2008 SNA in the overall strategic plan of the statistical office Adoption of detailed action plan for 2008 SNA Stage 2: Review of work needed to support implementation of the 2008 SNA - New classifications and improvements in business registers and business statistics Changes in business statistics surveys to collect the necessary source data Changes in other related source statistics compiled by the statistical office Review of macroeconomic data compiled outside the office (e.g. BoP, GFS, MFS) Adaptation of administrative data sources to new requirements IT and other changes. Staff resources. Stage 3: Development of National Accounts and changeover to the 2008 SNA May 2014 Main issues affecting GDP GNI and other primary indicators Institutional sector accounts (non-financial accounts) Institutional sector accounts: Financial account Institutional sector accounts: Balance sheets UNECE Statistical Division Slide 4 STAGE 1 – Institutional agreements • Progress made: • Interagency working groups (7 countries) • Memorandums of Understanding / other agreements (7) • Institutional arrangements ongoing in the rest (meetings, workshops) • NSO coordinator for administrative data exchange • Issues: Distribution of responsibilities, harmonising data and finding ways for data exchange (legal basis, IT issues), continuous cooperation May 2014 UNECE Statistical Division Slide 5 STAGE 1 – User needs and resources • Progress made: • List of top priorities defined (4 countries) • Seminars, workshops or discussions held with users and data providers (5) • Interagency working group to review user needs • Press release explaining the 2008 SNA (Armenia) • Translation of SNA 2008 to national language available for users • Issues: How to explain changes to users, developing documentation and training materials, lack of resources May 2014 UNECE Statistical Division Slide 6 STAGE 1 – 2008 SNA in Statistical Development Strategies • Progress made: • SNA implementation included (17 countries) Master plan in preparation (1) • Global Assessment recommendations relating to 2008 SNA being included in the Development Strategy • National implementation plans on UNECE website • Issues: Need for future revisions of strategies, sharing good practices with more advanced countries May 2014 UNECE Statistical Division Slide 7 STAGE 1 – Detailed action plan for 2008 SNA • Progress made: • Detailed 2008 SNA action plans adopted (10 countries) Good progress in others, e.g. adoption soon • Revising detailed 2008 SNA action plans • Aligning technical assistance with 2008 SNA plans • Setting up interdepartmental working groups in NSO on the implementation • Issues: Clarification of priorities, coordination of work plans with other institutions, lack of resources, seeking support from public authorities May 2014 UNECE Statistical Division Slide 8 Areas of future work and international support (Stage 1) • Exchanging experience on institutional arrangements • Communicate 2008 SNA and train users (6 countries) • Exchanging experience on implementing and revising 2008 SNA strategic plans (7) • Defining areas for further work with international experts • Collaboration with other government agencies May 2014 UNECE Statistical Division Slide 9 STAGE 2 – Classifications and improvements in business statistics • Progress made: • New industry and product classifications implemented (10 countries) • New classifications in the process of adoption or implementation started in others • Issues: implementing classifications on institutional sectors and financial assets; backcasting; further improving business registers, e.g. coverage and sectorisation; lack of resources May 2014 UNECE Statistical Division Slide 10 STAGE 2 – Changes in business statistics surveys • Progress made: • Revisions made to questionnaires (10 countries) Analysis of existing data vs. SNA requirements ongoing Questionnaires with double classification New content of surveys, e.g. short-term & structural statistics; banking & insurance, computer software, R&D and IPP New survey on innovation for R&D expenditure data etc. • Issues: Response burden; timeliness; budget constraints; data validation; data collection for financial corporations; quarterly surveys, bookkeeping standards May 2014 UNECE Statistical Division Slide 11 STAGE 2 – Changes in other related NSO’s source statistics • Progress made: • Improved production systems and databases • Extended household budget surveys and improved LFS • Improved price indexes • Non-observed economy survey • Steps to set up NPISH collection • Issues: Staff and IT resource constrains, detailed data on extra budgetary funds May 2014 UNECE Statistical Division Slide 12 STAGE 2 – Macroeconomic data compiled outside the office • Progress made: • GFS (with MoF) (8 countries) • BoP & monetary statistics (with CB) (6) Solving discrepancies with BoP Revising historical BoP time series • FISIM workbook based on MFS • Issues: Better coordination with CB and MoF, improving and harmonization of data for GFS, BoP and monetary statistics; recording of NPL; EDP tables; translating manuals May 2014 UNECE Statistical Division Slide 13 STAGE 2 – Adaptation of administrative data sources • Progress made: • Discussions with admin data providers, e.g. on changes and data exchange Changes to MoF data collection for SNA Using new data from tax authorities • Integrated information system "e-statistics" for cooperation with administrative data sources • New statistics on the pension fund • Issues: Improve estimates of regional GDP from admin data; improve admin data use, collection forms and technology for data exchange, consistency of definitions and concepts, support from authorities in charge of admin registers May 2014 UNECE Statistical Division Slide 14 STAGE 2 – IT and staff resources • Progress made: • New production systems → opportunities for professional growth • Improved data processing for surveys and electronic data collection • Seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP • Increased staff resources • Issues: Appropriate software needed (5); set up or redesign data warehousing; limited financial and/or human resources (7) May 2014 UNECE Statistical Division Slide 15 Areas of future work and international support (Stage 2) • Integration with business registers & related statistics (11 countries) • Revisions of time series and backcasting (5) • Coordinated development of BoP, monetary statistics and GFS (9) • Training IT staff on the necessary modernization (9) May 2014 UNECE Statistical Division Slide 16 STAGE 3 – Development of National Accounts Main priorities in the national implementation plans and UNECE regional recommendations Basic indicators of GDP (Milestone I) • • • • • • • Measurement of services (incl. 2008 SNA financial services) Constant prices: deflators, double deflation, chain linking Exhaustiveness (incl. Informal and illegal activities) Government sector: accruals, coverage Balancing in a supply and use framework Measures of GFCF and CFC (incl. 2008 SNA assets boundary) Improvements in QNA, seasonal adjustments methods GNI and other primary indicators - Milestone 2 Institutional sector accounts: Milestones 3 to 6 May 2014 UNECE Statistical Division Slide 17 STAGE 3 – Basic indicators of GDP • Significant progress in relation to GDP measures. • General improvements in NA in all 18 countries • 2008 SNA changes: 14 countries started work and 4 planned • Ukraine developed estimates for major changes affecting GDP • 5 countries finalized estimates for 1 or more 2008 SNA changes (4 FISIM, 2 Insurance, 2 Output of CB; 1 R&D) • Majority of countries have taken step-by-step approach for the implementation of the 2008 SNA May 2014 UNECE Statistical Division Slide 18 STAGE 3 – Basic indicators of GDP • Work under national strategies for development of statistics: significant involvement of national resources • International support: • Twinning projects and different forms of bilateral support • IPA funds, IMF assistance programs, WB Projects • Methodological guidelines: • International manuals developed by IMF, OECD, UNSD/ECB, Eurostat • Specific recommendations by CIS-STAT, UNECE • Training seminars and workshops May 2014 UNECE Statistical Division Slide 19 STAGE 3 – Basic indicators of GDP Annual National Accounts • Developing SUT and balancing in SUT framework: Albania, Azerbaijan, Moldova, Serbia, Russian Federation, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan • Estimates of GDP by expenditure: independent estimates, implementation of new data sources/surveys (Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bosnia&Herzegovina, Georgia, Mongolia, Montenegro, Serbia,…) • Improving GDP estimates by production: classification of units, statistical questionnaires, coverage of statistical surveys (Georgia, Montenegro, Turkmenistan, ..) • Implementation of income approach (Serbia) May 2014 UNECE Statistical Division Slide 20 STAGE 3 – Basic indicators of GDP Quarterly National Accounts • QNA by productions approach: Bosnia, Montenegro • QNA by expenditure approach: Serbia, Albania (experimental), Bosnia (in-progress) • Experimental estimates for discrete quarters: Uzbekistan • Seasonal Adjustment: Moldova • Improving QNA: Albania, Armenia, Moldova, Mongolia, Serbia, Constant Price Estimates • Chain linking, revision of constant price series: Albania, Armenia, Moldova • Double deflation based on SUT: Albania, Azerbaijan • Expenditure components in constant prices • Constant price estimates for taxes, government output, FISIM May 2014 UNECE Statistical Division Slide 21 STAGE 3 – Basic indicators of GDP Non-observed economy • • • • • Majority of countries improved estimates of NOE ..but only few included them in national accounts series Eurostat tabular approach most often used Specific surveys/data bases developed Issues: illegal activities, inclusion in the accounts and revision of data series Imputed rent • New method based on user cost approach in 5 countries: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russian Federation, Ukraine • Issues: Price indices for housing, constant prices May 2014 UNECE Statistical Division Slide 22 STAGE 3 – Basic indicators of GDP Improving methods for GFCF and CFC in about half of the countries • Revision of the questionnaires • Revisions in the estimation methods by types of assets • Implementation of perpetual inventory method (PIM) • Issues: estimates for Households and Government sectors May 2014 UNECE Statistical Division Slide 23 STAGE 3 – Basic indicators of GDP R&D expenditure • Estimates completed in Azerbaijan (experimental), fYROM, Ukraine • On-going work in Albania, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Mongolia, Uzbekistan • Revision of surveys and exploring new data sources • Issues: Building time series, data availability for the government sector May 2014 UNECE Statistical Division Slide 24 STAGE 3 – Basic indicators of GDP Military expenditure • Estimates completed in Azerbaijan (experimental), Mongolia?, Ukraine • On-going work in Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, fYROM, Moldova, Mongolia, Uzbekistan • Agreements and workshops with Ministries of Fefense or Finance • Issues: Confidential data Computer software (fYROM), Land improvements (fYROM), mineral exploration (Albania) • Improvement of questionnaires • Additional data sources May 2014 UNECE Statistical Division Slide 25 STAGE 3 – Basic indicators of GDP Financial services • FISIM • New method is implemented in Albania, Azerbaijan, Mongolia, Russian Federation, Serbia, Ukraine. • Experimental calculations in Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Uzbekistan • Issues: imports and export of FISIM, constant price estimates, lack of detailed information from the CB May 2014 UNECE Statistical Division Slide 26 STAGE 3 – Basic indicators of GDP Financial Services • Output of Central Bank • New method implemented in Albania and Uzbekistan • Experimental calculations and on-going work in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Mongolia, Tajikistan • Insurance services (Albania, Kazakhstan Ukraine, Uzbekistan) • Issues: output of reinsurance services, output of non-life insurance • Pension Funds (Kazakhstan) May 2014 UNECE Statistical Division Slide 27 STAGE 3 – GNI and other primary indicators Work is under way in 14 countries • Together with Central Banks as compilers of BoP • Reconciling the estimates on export and imports, FDI survey, current and capital transfers, • Issues: remittances, IT issues, Data Warehouse System for adequate data processing, • Coordination of the revision of data series in line BPM6 and 2008 SNA May 2014 UNECE Statistical Division Slide 28 STAGE 3 – Institutional sector accounts: Non-financial accounts: work under way in 12 countries • Developing sector accounts in steps, some first for government sector, some for production accounts • Challenges in obtaining the required data from other institutions, exploring data sources Financial Accounts: Mainly experimental calculations • Completed in Russian Federation (Central Bank) • Ongoing work in 4 countries • Arrangements with the CB, exploring data sources, revision of questionnaires, classifications, IT issues May 2014 UNECE Statistical Division Slide 29 STAGE 3 – Institutional sector accounts: Balance Sheets: Mainly at initial stages • Examination of methods and data sources Issues: Institutional sector classification, Coverage of Government sector and sub-sectors, Sub-sectoring of financial institutions, classification of assets May 2014 UNECE Statistical Division Slide 30 Stage 3 – Priorities, Challenges, Technical assistance Priority I: GDP, GNI and basic indicators: finalize existing national programmes and publish the revised time series • Financial services, GFCF, NOE, constant prices, improving scope and quality of accounts, QNA, harmonizing BoP and SNA • Implement the experimental estimates in the accounts, revision of time series, communication to users Step-by-step approach vs major revision? Coordination with other instritutions (e. BoP compilers)? Coordination with other countres? • Experts support; exchange of experience (including with countries from the region), training May 2014 UNECE Statistical Division Slide 31 Stage 3 – Priorities, Challenges, Technical assistance Priority II ? Financial accounts? Balance sheets? Nonfinancial sector accounts? • Institutional sector classification: agreed and consistently applied by the NSO, CB and MoF • Implementation and use of GFS data in national accounts • Classification of assets: non-financial and financial • Valuation of assets and transactions • Involvement of Central Banks and/or Ministries of Finance • Training, workshops, guidance and recommendations, study visits and experts support May 2014 UNECE Statistical Division Slide 32