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Economic Outlook November 4, 2009 Table of Contents I. National Economic Overview II. Residential Real Estate Summary III. North Carolina Appendix | Economics 2 National Economic Overview | Economics 3 U.S. Economic Overview The Recession Appears to Have Ended This Summer, but the Recovery Will Likely Be Slow and Agonizing Highlights Nonfarm Employment Change Real GDP We believe the recession may have ended in June. The downturn turned into the longest of the post-war period at 19 months, but some signs of stabilization are appearing. We are beginning to see some small positives in many key indicators mixed in with smaller declines. The labor market remains the primary concern as job losses have reached 7.2 million and are likely on their way to more than 9 million before the end of the cycle. This would easily exceed every downturn since the aftermath of World War II. The unemployment rate should reach 10 percent later this year. Bars = CAGR 10.0% Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change Change in Employment, In Thousands 10.0% 600 GDPR - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q3 @ -2.3% 8.0% 8.0% 6.0% 400 400 200 200 6.0% Forecast 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% -2.0% -2.0% -4.0% -4.0% -6.0% -6.0% 0 0 -200 -200 -400 -400 -600 -8.0% -8.0% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 -600 Nonfarm Employment Change: Sep @ -263,000 -800 2000 -800 2001 Wells Fargo U.S. Economic Forecast Level One Level Two Real Gross Domestic Level Three Product 1 Personal Consumption Level Four Business Fixed Investment Equipment and Software Consumer Price Index2 Corporate Profits Before Taxes 2 10-Year Treasury Note Actual 2006 600 GDPR - CAGR: Q3 @ 3.5% 2007 2009 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Employment Change in Recessions 2010 Percentage Change Peak-to-Trough 0% Forecast 2008 2002 2011 2.7 2.9 7.9 7.4 3.2 2.1 2.6 6.2 2.6 2.9 0.4 -0.2 1.6 -2.6 3.8 -2.4 -0.8 -18.1 -17.7 -0.4 2.4 1.0 -1.8 2.8 1.6 2.2 1.4 3.6 5.4 2.0 10.5 4.71 -4.1 4.04 -11.8 2.25 -10.6 3.40 7.8 3.80 9.8 4.40 Forecast as of: October 7, 2009 1C ompound Annual Growth Rate 2Year-over-Year Percent C hange 0% -1% -1% -2% -2% -3% -3% -4% -4% -5% -5% Preliminary Benchmark Revision Losses -6% -6% 19481949 Cycle 19531954 Cycle 19571958 Cycle 19601961 Cycle 19691970 Cycle 19731975 Cycle 1980 Cycle 19811982 Cycle 19891991 Cycle 2001 Cycle 2007ToDate Source: Federal Reserve Board, U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC | Economics 4 U.S. Economic Overview The Domestic Economy Has Been Extremely Weak but Is on Track for a Modest Recovery Highlights Real “core” GDP, or private Real "Core" GDP Bars = CAGR 10.0% domestic final sales, line up well with the persistent weakness in the domestic economy more clearly than does GDP. The measure has been negative in the past six quarters, and we expect it to turn sustainably positive next year. International trade collapsed last year. Imports have fallen dramatically this year, while exports have fallen less. Businesses have struggled to bring inventories in line with demand. Massive liquidations occurred in the first three quarters of this year. We expect the drawdown process to proceed, albeit more slowly, for several more quarters. Nominal GDP, a measure of revenue growth for the economy, has already seen the steepest decline since 1958 and will likely turn positive in the second half of this year. Trade Balance in Goods Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change 10.0% 7.5% 7.5% Forecast 5.0% 5.0% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% -2.5% -2.5% -5.0% -5.0% -7.5% -7.5% -10.0% "Core" GDP - CAGR: Q3 @ 3.2% "Core" GDP - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q3 @ -3.4% -12.5% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 3-Month Moving Average, Billions of Dollars $0 -$10 -$20 -$30 -$30 -$40 -$40 -$50 -$50 -$60 -$60 -10.0% -$70 -$70 -12.5% -$80 2010 -$80 97 98 99 00 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 $125 Compound Annual Growth Rate 12.0% 12.0% $100 $75 Forecast $75 $50 $50 $25 $25 $0 9.0% Forecast 9.0% 6.0% 6.0% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% -3.0% -3.0% $0 -$25 -$25 -$50 -$50 -$75 -$75 -$100 -$100 -$125 -$125 -$150 -$200 2000 01 Nominal GDP Billions of Dollars, Annual Rate $100 -$175 -$10 -$20 Change in Real Inventories $125 $0 Nominal Trade Balance: Aug @ -$41.0 Billion Real Trade Balance: Aug @ -$37.4 Billion -$150 -$200 2002 2004 2006 2008 -6.0% Nominal GDP - CAGR: Q3 @ 4.3% Nominal GDP - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q3 @ -1.7% -$175 Change in Private Inventories: Q3 @ -$130.8B 2010 -9.0% -6.0% -9.0% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC | Economics 5 Consumer Overview Consumer Spending Plunged in the Late 2008 and Early 2009, but the Declines Moderated This Spring Discretionary Spending Spending Discretionary Consumer May-2009 Other Discretionary 20% Housing Away from Home 1% Alcohol & Tobacco 3% Clothing & Shoes 4% Recreation 4% Furniture & HHEquip 4% Motor Vehicles 3% Food Away from Home 5% Negative Non-Discretionary 56% Positive Retail Sales Ex. Auto & Gas Stations vs. Income 3-Month Moving Average Collapsing Labor Market The torrent of layoffs and job losses is unlikely to abate until next year. Housing & Home Equity Housing prices and home equity are still likely headed lower, weighing further on consumer spending and sentiment. 15% 15% Stock Market Bubble 12% Tax Cut 2 Housing Refi Boom Tax Rebates Tax Cut 1 12% 9% 9% 6% 6% 3% 3% 0% 0% -3% -3% -6% -6% -9% -9% Disposable Personal Income, Yr/Yr % Change: Aug @ -0.2% 3-Month Annual Rate: Sep @ 0.6% -12% -12% 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Fiscal Stimulus A reduction in payroll withholdings provided a lift to take-home pay in the middle of this year. Consumer Confidence While confidence is still low, consumer expectations for the future have rebounded off of their lows. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC | Economics 6 Credit Spreads & The Yield Curve Fed and Treasury Actions Have Helped Narrow Credit Spreads Highlights Conventional Mortgage to 10-Year Treasury Spread TED Spread Credit markets began a steady thaw late last year, and progress has continued in recent weeks. The TED spread has moved to a level not seen since the credit crunch began, and is now at a more normal level. Corporate borrowing has improved as credit spreads have narrowed. Credit is still relatively expensive, and it remains difficult for small businesses and consumers to qualify. Mortgage rates were pushed sharply lower by the Fed’s intervention in the MBS market, reaching historically low levels in April. Thirty-year fixed mortgage rates have remained around 5 percent since then. 450 400 350 350 300 300 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 275 275 250 250 225 225 200 200 175 175 150 150 50 125 125 0 100 2004 2009 700 Basis Points 300 300 250 250 500 500 200 200 400 400 150 150 300 300 100 100 200 200 50 100 2008 2009 0 2005 50 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 1,600 5-Year AAA CMBS: Oct @ 350 bps 600 2007 2006 Basis Points 1,600 CDX: Nov @ 107 bps 600 2006 100 2005 5-Year and 10-Year AAA CMBS Spreads CDX IG Index Basis Points 2005 300 Mortgage Spread: Nov @ 154 bps 400 Baa Corporates: Nov @ 285 bps 100 2004 300 TED: Nov @ 21 bps Baa Corporate Spread 700 Basis Points Basis Points 450 2007 2008 2009 1,400 10-Year AAA CMBS: Oct @ 525 bps 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 800 800 600 600 400 400 200 200 0 2005 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: British Bankers’ Association, Federal Reserve Board, Freddie Mac and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC | Economics 7 Global Growth & The Dollar A Tentative Global Recovery Is Starting to Take Hold Highlights Real Global GDP Growth After declining in 2009, global economic growth is poised to rebound in 2010. Recovery is already under way in developing nations such as China and Brazil, and there are signs that European recessions are coming to an end. Many western economies, however, will still likely continue to need macroeconomic stimulus. The dollar should continue to grind higher against most major currencies over the next few quarters as U.S. growth prospects continue to improve. Central Bank Policy Rates Year-over-Year Percent Change 7.5% 7.5% 9.0% 8.0% 6.0% 6.0% Period Average 7.0% 4.5% 4.5% 3.0% 3.0% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% -1.5% -1.5% 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 9.0% US Federal Reserve: Nov @ 0.25% Bank of England: Nov @ 0.50% ECB: Nov @ 1.00% Reserve Bank of Australia: Nov @ 3.50% 6.0% 5.0% 5.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2000 0.0% 2001 2002 (End of Quarter Rates) Euro ($/€) U.K. ($/£) Japan (¥/$) Canada (C$/US$) Switzerland (CHF/$) China (CNY/$) Mexico ($/MXN) 1.50 1.61 90 1.04 1.01 6.82 13.03 1.46 1.58 93 1.07 1.03 6.81 12.83 Q2 1.40 1.55 97 1.09 1.08 6.80 12.58 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Major Curency Index, 1973 = 100 115 110 2010 Q1 2003 Trade Weighted Dollar 115 Q4 7.0% 6.0% Wells Fargo Bank Currency Strategy Group Forecast 2009 8.0% 110 105 Q3 1.34 1.53 101 1.11 1.14 6.79 12.50 Q4 1.31 1.51 105 1.11 1.18 6.78 12.33 105 Forecast 100 100 95 95 90 90 85 85 80 80 75 75 70 70 Trade Weighted Dollar: Q3 @ 74.7 65 65 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Forecast as of: October 15, 2009 Source: Bloomberg LP, Federal Reserve Board, International Monetary Fund and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC | Economics 8 Unemployment by County Large Portions of the United States Continue to Face Serious Unemployment Issues Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate August 2009 Greater than 12.5% 6.0% to 8.0% 10.0% to 12.5% Less than 6.0% 8.0% to 10.0% Source: US Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC | Economics 9 Residential Real Estate Summary | Economics 10 Homebuilding Construction May Have Bottomed, but This Will Likely Not Be the End of the Problems for Housing Highlights Housing Starts Millions of Units 2.4 We estimate an overbuild of roughly 2.0 million units occurred at the cycle peak, and, unfortunately, little progress was made in reducing inventories in 2008 despite the collapse in new home construction. Although inventory levels have improved this year, they still remain elevated. This will likely continue to pressure new construction activity and prices. Housing starts remain at low levels, although they have inched up recently. Starts probably bottomed during the first half of this year, but we are at least two years away from seeing starts move back above 1 million units. Excess supply from builders and the rising tide of foreclosed properties have driven prices sharply lower. Price declines have moderated in recent months. Progress will likely remain uneven, and we do not expect to see house prices trough until 2010. 2.1 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 80 82 84 86 Wells Fargo Housing Outlook Home Construction Total Housing Starts, in thousands Single-Family Starts, in thousands Multi-Family Starts, in thousands 1,811.9 1,473.6 338.3 Home Sales New Home Sales, Single-Family, in thousands Total Existing Home Sales, in thousands 1,049.3 6,482.9 Actual 2007 1,341.8 1,035.8 306.1 768.7 5,652.8 2008 900.3 615.8 284.5 481.3 4,913.0 Case-Shiller C-10 Home Price Index, % Change 7.5 7.4 2.2 -4.4 -2.5 -16.7 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 Home Prices 2009 580.0 440.0 140.0 390.0 4,800.0 Forecast 2010 790.0 590.0 200.0 550.0 5,200.0 2011 990.0 770.0 220.0 750.0 5,300.0 -4.6 -15.4 -0.6 -3.0 0.5 0.0 24% 20% 20% 16% 16% 12% 12% 8% 8% 4% 4% 0% 0% -4% -4% -8% -8% -12% -12% Median Sale Price: Sep @ $174,900 Median Sales Price 3-M Mov. Avg.: Sep @ -11.2% -16% Home Prices FHFA (OFHEO) Home Price Index, % Change 88 Year-over-Year Percentage Change 24% 2006 2.4 Dashed Line is Underlying Demographic Trend -16% FHFA (OFHEO) Purchase Only Index: Jul @ -4.2% S&P Case-Shiller Composite 10: Aug @ -10.6% -20% -20% -24% -24% 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 Forecast as of: September 25, 2009 Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, National Association of Realtors, S&P Corp, U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC | Economics 11 Residential Real Estate While Construction May Have Seen a Trough, We Expect Prices to Continue Declining for Some Time Highlights S&P Case-Shiller Home Prices Existing & New Single Family Home Sales New home sales have improved markedly in recent months. Sales fell sharply last autumn despite lower mortgage rates and increased incentives from builders. Existing sales have held up better and have also increased recently. A large portion, however, consists of foreclosure and distressed sales. The first-time homebuyers’ tax credit is likely providing a lift to home sales. The tax credit, however, is due to expire at the end of the year. The near-term relevance of the housing affordability measure has diminished because prices have been pushed down by foreclosure activity and fewer people can qualify for conventional mortgages. Although credit standards loosened somewhat in the third quarter, they still remain tight. Continued caution is understandable given the rise in delinquency rates and foreclosures. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate - In Millions 1.6 Percent Decline from Local Market Peak 7.0 6.5 1.4 6.0 1.2 5.5 1.0 5.0 0.8 4.5 0.6 4.0 0.4 Dallas Denver Charlotte Cleveland Boston Atlanta New York Portland Seattle Chicago Minneapolis Washington San Diego Los Angeles San Francisco Tampa Detroit Miami Phoenix Las Vegas 3.5 New Home Sales: Sep @ 402 Thousand (Left Axis) 28.3% 28.8% 38.7% 39.2% 39.3% 39.8% 43.7% 47.0% 52.3% 54.9% C-10 C-20 Existing Home Sales: Sep @ 4.9 Million (Right Axis) 0.2 2002 4.0% 7.3% 11.2% 13.0% 14.5% 18.5% 19.0% 19.3% 22.2% 22.6% 30.2% 29.3% 3.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 0% Base = 100 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% Net Percent of Banks Tightening Standards Housing Affordability, NAR-Home Sales 180 5% Mortgages for Individuals 180 100% 100% All Mortgages (Through Q1-2007) 170 170 160 160 150 150 140 140 130 130 120 120 Prime Mortgages: Q3 @ 21.6% 80% 110 Nontraditional Mortgages: Q3 @ 45.8% 80% 60% 60% 40% 40% 20% 20% 110 0% 100 90 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 0% 100 Housing Affordability Index: Sep @ 162.7 6-Month Moving Average: Sep @ 164.2 06 08 -20% 1990 -20% 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Source: Federal Reserve Board, National Association of Realtors, S&P Corp, U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC | Economics 12 Home Price Declines from Peak Home Price Declines Will Likely Continue into 2010 FHFA (OFHEO) Home Price Index FHFA: Q1-2009 Percent Decline from Peak Value No C hange 3% to 9% 0% to 1% More than 9% 1% to 3% Source: FHFA and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC | Economics 13 North Carolina | Economics 14 North Carolina Unemployment and Housing Freeze the Economy Highlights North Carolina Nonfarm Employment North Carolina’s unemployment rate has more than doubled since the start of the recession. Labor force growth has certainly contributed to the rise in the unemployment rate, but layoffs have also mounted at an alarming rate. Layoffs are most notable in the construction and manufacturing sectors, which still account for about 20 percent of total employment in the state. Payroll employment declined more than five percent from its peak in several major metro areas including Charlotte and Greensboro. Recently, however, the declines have been slowing. With such severe job losses, personal income will likely fall this year, hitting the state’s retailers and consumer sectors. New single-family building activity has declined considerably from cycle highs as local and national builders scaled back. Construction likely bottomed earlier this year, and single-family construction activity has inched up recently. Most of the state did not experience the same rapid home price appreciation during the housing boom as other parts of the country. Home prices declined more than six percent in the second quarter, and we do not expect price appreciation to return for at least another year. 3-Month Moving Averages 6% North Carolina Relative Employment 6% January 2000 = 100 124 120 3% 3% 116 0% 0% -3% -3% -6% -9% 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 112 112 108 108 104 104 100 100 96 92 08 92 00 01 North Carolina Unemployment Rate 12% 10% 9% 9% 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 04 05 06 07 08 09 08 120 Single-Family: Sep @ 27,288 Single-Family, 12-Month Moving Avg.: Sep @ 25,234 Multi-Family, 12-Month Moving Avg.: Sep @ 9,394 11% 12-Month Moving Average: Sep @ 9.7% 10% 90 03 Thousands of Permits, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate 120 Unemployment Rate: Sep @ 10.8% 11% 02 North Carolina Housing Permits Seasonally Adjusted 12% 116 96 -9% 92 120 -6% 3-Month Annual Rate: Sep @ -2.6% Year-over-Year Percent Change: Sep @ -5.1% Household: Year/Year Percent Change: Sep @ -5.1% 90 124 North Carolina: Sep @ 101.0 Raleigh: Sep @ 116.6 Charlotte: Sep @ 107.1 Asheville: Sep @ 103.5 Greensboro: Sep @ 95.0 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC | Economics 15 Charlotte Unemployment Is a Major Concern Highlights Charlotte MSA Nonfarm Employment Payroll employment declined sharply and the unemployment rate rose following the beginning of last year as layoffs mounted. Recently, however, the declines have slowed. Charlotte’s housing market saw strong growth but was not a bubble market. Nevertheless, excesses need to be worked off. Home prices have declined modestly over the past year and are down a cumulative 11 percent from their peak, as measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller index. Worries about the region’s financial employment base will likely weigh on the housing market in coming quarters. Single-family construction declined over 80 percent from its peak, reflecting pull backs by national builders and the effects of tighter credit. Single-family construction has inched up over the past few months. Population growth in 2008 totaled 55,000 in the MSA and close to 70,000 in the broader CSA, which includes emerging suburbs and employment markets in Mooresville, Denver and Lancaster County. Charlotte MSA Housing Permits 3-Month Moving Averages 10% 10% 8% 8% 6% 6% 4% 4% 2% 2% 0% 0% -2% -2% -4% -4% -6% -6% -8% -8% 3-Month Annual Rate: Sep @ -2.3% Year-over-Year Percent Change: Sep @ -5.9% -10% Household: Yr/Yr Percent Change: Sep @ -6.8% -12% 93 95 97 99 01 03 Multi-Family, 12-Month Mov. Avg.: Sep @ 3,419 25 05 07 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 09 0 90 92 13% Unemployment Rate: Sep @ 12.0% 12-Month Moving Average: Sep @ 10.5% 11% 10% 10% 9% 9% 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 92 94 96 98 00 02 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 In Thousands 70 70 12% 11% 90 94 Charlotte MSA Population Growth Seasonally Adjusted 12% 25 20 Charlotte MSA Unemployment Rate 13% 30 Single-Family: Sep @ 4,956 Single-Family, 12-Month Mov. Avg.: Sep @ 4,234 -10% -12% 91 Thousands of Permits, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate 30 04 06 08 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC | Economics 16 Charlotte CSA Charlotte CSA Population Growth Charlotte CSA Employment Growth Thousands of Persons 90 Annual Growth, Thousands of Jobs 90 50 Charlotte MSA: 2008 @ 55.4 80 80 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 Charlotte CMSA: 2008 @ 67.5 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 Employment concerns dominate the outlook for Greater Charlotte 0 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 50 2008 is year-to-date Greater Charlotte: 2008 @ 12.1 0 0 -10 10 -20 0 -30 08 -10 Charlotte CMSA: 2008 @ -8.3 Greater Charlotte: 2008 @ -4.6 Charlotte MSA: 2008 @ -3.7 -20 -30 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Charlotte CSA Unemployment Rate Charlotte CSA Job Growth Year-over-Year Percent Change Percent of Labor Force 8% 14% 6% 6% 12% 12% 4% 4% 10% 10% 2% 2% 0% 0% -2% -2% -4% -4% 8% -6% -6% 8% 8% 6% 6% 4% 4% 2% Year-over-Year Percent Change: Mar @ -6.91% -8% 1991 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2% Unemployment Rate: Sep @ 12.6% -8% 1993 14% 2007 2009 0% 1990 0% 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC | Economics 17 Appendix | Economics 18 Economics Group Publications A Sampling of Our Recent Special, Regional and Industry Commentary Distribution Lists Recent Special Commentary Monthly Economic Outlook Date October-20 October-19 October-15 October-06 October-05 Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary Special Reports Global Economic Commentary Federal Reserve Commentary Real Estate & Housing Chief Economist List distribution lists, please visit our website: http://www.wachovia.com/economic Authors Bryson Bryson, Khan & Kama. Vitner & York Bryson & Quinlan Vitner & Kamaruddin Silvia Bryson Vitner, Khan & Kamar. Vitner & Khan Benchmarking Recovery: Rhyming not Repeating Will Debt Restrain Euro-zone Consumer Spending? State & Local Financial Woes Still Building Wobbly Fundamentals for Business Spending Housing Chartbook: August 2009 Healthcare Employment Stays out of the Sick Ward Early Recoveries are Typically “Jobless” Silvia Bryson Vitner & Khan Silvia & Quinlan Vitner & York Silvia, York & Whelan Silvia & York July-29 July-21 July-16 July-08 July-01 Recession Probability Drops Again Decision-Makers’ Guide to Stimulus Part Deux Is China the Next Bubble? Macro Clouds, Micro Foundations Pass-Through Effect of Housing Weakness Silvia & Iqbal Silvia Bryson Silvia Vitner & Whelan June-30 June-30 June-29 June-25 June-19 June-18 June-11 New Jersey Outlook - June 2009 Cash-for-Clunkers Boost Likely Unsustainable Breakdown, Adjustment & Rebuilding in Finance Recession Probability Drops Again to 37 Percent Labor Market Evolution: Realities and Romantics What Drives Consumer Delinquency Rates? Florida Economic Outlook - June 2009 Vitner, Khan & Kamar. Vitner & Khan Silvia Silvia & Iqbal Silvia, York & Whelan Vitner & Iqbal Vitner & Kamaruddin August-31 August-26 August-24 August-18 August-14 August-14 August-13 Consumer & Retail semail What Is Gold Telling Us? Housing Chartbook: October 2009 Beyond America, Canadian Economic Prospects Georgia Economic Outlook: October 2009 Comments Before Federal Reserve Advisory Panel September-24 What's Wrong With the Dollar? September-03 Commercial Real Estate Chartbook: Second Quarter September-02 Clunkernomics: Auto Sales Set to Boost Real GDP Economic Indicators To join any of our research Title November-03 How Bleak Is the British Consumer Spending Outlook | Economics 19 Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Economics Group Diane Schumaker-Krieg Global Head of Research & Economics [email protected] Mark Vitner Jay H. Bryson, Ph.D. Senior Economist Global Economist [email protected] U.S. Macro Economy Real Estate John E. Silvia, Ph.D. Chief Economist [email protected] Global Economies Foreign Exchange [email protected] Scott Anderson, Ph.D. Eugenio Aleman, Ph.D. Senior Economist [email protected] U.S. Macro Economy Senior Economist [email protected] U.S. Macro Economy Sam Bullard Anika Khan Azhar Iqbal Adam G. York Economist Economist Econometrician Economist [email protected] Desk Operations Financial Services [email protected] Real Estate Retail & Automotive [email protected] Quantitative MacroEconomic Modeling Ed Kashmarek Tim Quinlan Kim Whelan Economist Economic Analyst Economic Analyst [email protected] [email protected] Global Economies Business Investment [email protected] U.S. Macro Economy Business Investment U.S. Macro Economy [email protected] U.S. Consumer Real Estate Yasmine Kamaruddin Economic Analyst [email protected] U.S. Macro Economy Wells Fargo Securities Economics Group publications are produced by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, a U.S broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, and the Securities Investor Protection Corp. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, distributes these publications directly and through subsidiaries including, but not limited to, Wells Fargo & Company, Wachovia Bank N.A., Wells Fargo Bank N.A, Wells Fargo Advisors, LLC, and Wells Fargo Securities International Limited. The information and opinions herein are for general information use only. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does not guarantee their accuracy or completeness, nor does Wells Fargo Securities, LLC assume any liability for any loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice, are for general information only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sales of any security or as personalized investment advice. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC is a separate legal entity and distinct from affiliated banks and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo & Company © 2009 Wells Fargo Securities, LLC. SECURITIES: NOT FDIC-INSURED/NOT BANK-GUARANTEED/MAY LOSE VALUE | Economics 20