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Charts for Inflation Report 3/2002 Chart 1.1 Import-weighted exchange rate (I-44), trade-weighted exchange rate1) and interest rate differential against other countries2).. Weekly figures 4,0 85 I-44 (right-hand scale) 3,5 3,0 12-month interest rate differential (left-hand scale) 95 2,5 100 2,0 105 TWI (right-hand scale) 1,5 1,0 2000 110 115 2001 1) A falling 2) 90 2002 curve denotes an appreciation of the krone The US, the euro area, the UK and Sweden Source: Norges Bank Chart 1.2 Consumer prices adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE). Total1) and distributed by imported and domestically produced goods and services2). 12-month rise. Per cent 5 4 Goods and services produced in Norway 3 5 4 3 2 CPI-ATE 2 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 Imported consumer goods -2 -3 1999 -3 2000 2001 2002 1) Norges Bank's estimates up to July 2000, thereafter figures published by Statistics Norway 2) -2 Norges Bank's estimates Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Chart 1.3 Consumer prices. Total and adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products. 12month rise. Per cent 4 CPI-AT1) 3 3 2 2 CPI-ATE1) 1 0 1999 4 CPI 1 0 2000 2001 2002 CPI-AT: CPI adjusted for tax changes CPI-ATE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products 1) Norges Bank's estimates up to July 2000, thereafter figures published by Statistics Norway Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Chart 1.4 Consumer prices for some imported goods adjusted for tax changes. 12-month rise. Per cent 4 4 Imported consumer goods Cars 0 0 -4 Clothing and footwear -8 -4 -8 Audiovisual equipment -12 1999 -12 2000 2001 2002 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Chart 1.5 GDP growth in the US, the euro area and among Norway’s trading partners. Percentage change from previous quarter. Annual rate 6 4 US Euro area Trading partners 6 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 01 Q1 01 Q2 01 Q3 01 Q4 02 Q1 02 Q2 Sources: National sources of statistics and EcoWin Chart 1.6 Equity prices in Norway, the US and the UK. Index, Week 1 in 2002 = 100. 110 FTSE 100 100 90 80 Wilshire 5000 70 60 jan 02 Source: EcoWin OSEBX apr 02 jul 02 okt 02 Chart 1.7 Oil price, Brent Blend. USD per barrel. Daily figures 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 1999 0 2000 Source: Norges Bank 2001 2002 Chart 1.8 Three-month forward rates1) for Germany and the US. Monthly figures. Per cent 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 Germany 3 2 4 3 US 2 1 1 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 0 Three-month forward rates are estimated using money market rates and government bond yields with different maturities as observed on 24 October. 1) Source: Norges Bank Chart 1.9 Registered unemployed and persons on labour market programmes. Percentage of labour force. Seasonally adjusted 8 7 6 8 Registered unemployed and labour market programmes 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 Registered unemployed 2 1 1 0 1995 0 1997 1999 Source: Directorate of Labour 2001 Chart 1.10 Change in unemployment on same month previous year. In thousands of persons 16 16 Whole country 12 8 4 Eastern Norway 8 Western Norway 4 0 -4 12 0 Central and northern Norway Southern Norway -8 jan 00 jul 00 jan 01 jul 01 jan 02 jul 02 Source: Directorate of Labour -4 -8 Chart 1.11 Change in employment 2001 and 20021). Per cent 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 -1 -2 1) 2001 2002 Manu- Consfacturing truction Private Public sector Total services Change first half of 2001 to first half of 2002 Source: Statistics Norway -1 -2 Chart 1.12 Consumer confidence indicator.1) Unadjusted figures. 1999 Q1 - 2002 Q3 45 45 Own economy 30 30 15 15 0 -15 -30 1999 Norway's economy Total 0 -15 -30 2000 2001 2002 1) Provides an expression of the share with a positive assessment of the current situation and outlook for the future less the share with a negative assessment. Source: Norsk Gallup Institutt AS Chart 1.13 House prices and credit to households. 12-month rise. Per cent 25 25 Rise in house prices 20 20 15 Credit to households 15 10 10 5 5 0 1998 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 Sources: Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents and Norges Bank Chart 1.14 Goods consumption index. 1995 = 100. Seasonally adjusted volume 124 124 2002 121 2001 118 2000 121 118 115 115 112 112 Jan Mar May Source: Statistics Norway Jul Sept Nov Chart 2.1 Equity prices and long-term interest rates in the US, and prices for industrials. Index, Week 1 in 2001 = 100. Weekly figures 120 110 120 Long-term rates (10-year) Industrials 110 100 100 90 90 80 80 Wilshire 5000 70 60 jan 01 70 60 jul 01 jan 02 jul 02 Sources: EcoWin, The Economist, Wilshire Associates Chart 2.2 Consumer confidence indicators in the US and the euro area. Seasonally adjusted diffusion index. Monthly figures 150 125 10 US (left-hand scale) Euro area (right-hand scale) 100 75 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Sources: European Commission and the Conference Board Inc. 0 -10 -20 Chart 2.3 Capacity utilisation in industry in the US and the euro area. Per cent of capacity. Seasonally adjusted. Quarterly figures 90 85 90 Euro area 80 85 80 US 75 75 70 70 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Sources: Federal Reserve and European Commission Chart 2.4 Three-month interest rates in the US, the euro area and Japan 6 8 6 4 Euro area 4 2 0 1999 US Japan 2000 Source: EcoWin 2001 2002 2 0 Chart 2.5 Wage growth in the US and the euro area. Percentage rise on same quarter previous year 5 5 US 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 0 1998 Euro area 1 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 Source: EUROSTAT and Bureau of Labor Statistics Chart 2.6 Consumer price inflation¹) in the US, the euro area, Japan and the UK. Percentage change from previous year 4 4 US 3 2 3 2 UK 1 1 Euro area 0 0 -1 -2 jan 97 -1 Japan -2 jan 98 jan 99 jan 00 jan 01 jan 02 CPI in the US and Japan, HICP in the euro area and RPIX in the UK 1) Sources: EcoWin and national statistics sources Chart 2.7 Oil price. Brent Blend. USD per barrel. Daily figures 40 30 40 Futures prices 24 October 2002 20 30 20 IR 3/2002 10 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 10 0 Sources: International Petroleum Exchange, London and Norges Bank Chart 3.1 Mainland GDP and number of employed. Percentage change from previous year, 1990-2004 6 6 Mainland GDP 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 Employment 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank -2 Chart 3.2 Structural non-oil deficit. Percentage of trend mainland GDP. 2002-2009 5 National Budget 2003 Revised NB 2002 4 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 2002 2004 2006 2008 Sources: National Budget 2003, Revised National Budget 2002 Chart 3.3 Change in the structural non-oil budget balance1). 1990-2003 2 2 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -3 -3 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 1) The budget balance as a percentage of trend mainland GDP; change from previous year. Source: National Budget 2003 Chart 3.4 Real underlying spending growth in the government budget and growth in mainland GDP. Percentage change from previous year. 1990-2002 6 Mainland GDP. 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 Real underlying spending growth -4 -2 -4 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Sources: Statistics Norway, Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank Chart 3.5 Household debt as a percentage of disposable income¹) and household interest expenses after tax as a percentage of cash income. 1980-2001 170 12 Interest expenses (right-hand scale) 150 8 130 110 6 Debt (left-hand scale) 90 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 Figures for household disposable income taken from the national accounts Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 1) 10 4 2 0 Chart 3.6 Debt in relation to disposable income¹) for households distributed by income level ²). Per cent. 1984-2001 300 300 Decile 10 250 250 200 Decile 7-9 200 150 Total 150 100 100 Decile 1-6 50 50 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 Figures for household disposable income are taken from Statistics Norway's income and wealth survey, which is based on tax return statistics. The figures from and including 2000 are projections 2) Decile 10 consists of the 10 per cent of households with highest household income (over NOK 490 000 after tax in 1999), decile 9 consists of the next 10 per cent etc. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 1) Chart 3.7 Labour costs¹) in Norway and among trading partners. Percentage change from previous year. 1993-2001 Norway2) 6 6 4 4 Trading partners 2 0 2 0 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 ¹) Hourly labour costs in manufacturing ²) Including costs of additional vacation days in 2000 and 2001 Sources: Ministry of Finance, TRCIS/IMF and Norges Bank Chart 3.8 Relative labour costs in Norwegian manufacturing compared with trading partners. Index, 1970=100. 1970-2004 130 Local currency 130 120 120 110 110 100 100 Common currency 90 1970 1980 1990 90 2000 Sources: Statistics Norway, TRCIS/IMF and Norges Bank Chart 3.9 Petroleum investment. Actual investment and projections. In billions of NOK. Constant 1999 prices. 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Chart 3.10 Manufacturing employment, 1970-2004. In 1000s employed 400 400 350 350 300 300 250 250 200 200 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Chart 3.11 Developments in some indices on the Oslo Stock Exchange. Daily figures, 03.01.00 24.10.02. Index, 3 January 2000 = 100 150 125 150 Manufacturing Financial 125 100 100 75 75 50 25 All share index IT 0 jan 00 jul 00 jan 01 jul 01 jan 02 jul 02 Source: EcoWin 50 25 0 Chart 3.12 Change in employment from previous year. Per cent. Unemployment1) as a percentage of the labour force. 1980-2004 8 7 Unemployment rate (left-hand scale) 4 3 6 2 5 1 4 0 3 -1 2 -2 Employed (right-hand scale) 1 0 -3 -4 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 1) Registered unemployed Sources: Statistics Norway, the Directorate of Labour and Norges Bank Chart 3.13 Change in the labour force from previous year. Per cent. The labour force as a percentage of the population aged 16-74 (labour force participation rate). 1980-2004 75 4 73 2 71 0 69 67 Change in labour force (right-hand axis) Labour force participation rate (left-hand scale) 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank -2 -4 Chart 4.1 Consumer prices adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE). Total and distributed by imported and domestically produced goods and services. 12-month rise. Per cent 6 6 Goods and services produced in Norway 4 2 4 2 CPI-ATE 0 0 -2 -2 Imported consumer goods -4 2001 -4 2002 2003 2004 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Chart 4.2 Consumer prices (CPI). Total and adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPIATE). 12-month rise. Per cent 5 4 5 4 CPI 3 3 CPI-ATE 2 2 1 1 0 2001 0 2002 2003 2004 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Chart 4.3 Annual wage growth1) and unemployment rate2). Per cent Annual wage growth 6 4 6 4 2 Unemployment rate 0 2 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1) Average 2) for all groups. Including costs of additional vacation days Registered unemployed as a percentage of the labour force Sources: TRCIS, the Directorate of Labour and Norges Bank Chart 4.4 Wage share1) and return on total assets2) in manufacturing. Per cent 10 76 8 74 Return on total assets (left-hand scale) 6 4 Wage share (righthand scale) 72 70 2 68 0 66 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 1) Labour costs as a percentage of value added 2) Ordinary profit/loss after tax + depreciation - write-downs as a share of total assets. Excluding oil companies Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Chart 4.5 Producer prices and consumer prices. 25 trading partners. 12-month rise. Per cent 6 6 4 4 2 Consumer prices 2 0 0 -2 -2 Producer prices -4 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 -4 Sources: EcoWin, Datastream, the OECD and Norges Bank Chart 4.6 Import-weighted exchange rate and prices for imported consumer goods adjusted for tax changes. 12-month rise. Per cent 8 4 8 Imported consumer goods 4 0 0 -4 -4 -8 -12 1996 Import-weighted exchange rate (I-44) -8 -12 1998 2000 2002 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Chart 4.7 Consumer price inflation1). Projection and uncertainty. 12-month rise. Per cent 5 5 4 4 3 3 2.5 2.5 2 2 30% 50% 70% 90% 1 0 2001 1) Adjusted 1 0 2002 2003 2004 for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE) The bands in the fan indicate different probabilities for consumer price inflation. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Chart 4.8 Different scenarios for the krone exchange rate (I-44) 110 105 110 Import-weighted exchange rate, I-44 100 95 Average last 3 months (89.0) Uncovered interest rate parity 90 85 100 95 90 Stronger exchange rate 80 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Source: Norges Bank 105 85 80 Chart 4.9 Different scenarios for consumer prices adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE). 12-month rise. Per cent 4 3 4 CPI-ATE Uncovered interest rate parity 2 2 1 0 2001 3 Baseline scenario Stronger exchange rate 1 0 2002 2003 2004 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Chart 4.10 Technical assumption1) and expectations concerning short-term money market rates2). Per cent 10 10 8 8 IR 3/02 6 Forward interest rates 24 October 4 6 4 2 2 0 2000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 1) Sight deposit rate 2) Three-month money market rates up to and including Q3. Threemonth forward rates are estimated using four money market rates and five government bond yields with different maturities as observed on 24 October. Source: Norges Bank Chart 4.11 Projected rise in CPI-ATE under various assumptions. 12-month rise. Per cent 4 Uncovered interest rate parity and market expectations regarding interest rates 3 2 3 2 Uncovered interest rate parity, market expectations regarding interest rates and 4½ per cent wage growth 1 0 2001 4 1 0 2002 2003 2004 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Annex 3 12 12 10 10 Overnight rate 8 IR 3/02: 7.0 6 4 2 8 6 Deposit rate 4 3-month money market rate 0 1995 2 0 1996 1997 Source: Norges Bank 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 115 115 Trade-weighted exchange rate, TWI (1990=100) 110 110 105 105 100 100 Import-weighted exchange rate, I-44 (1995=100) 95 90 85 1995 IR 3/02: 94.6 95 IR 3/02: 89.0 90 85 1996 1997 Source: Norges Bank 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 The credit indicator (C2), credit to households and total credit to the non-financial private sector and municipalities, mainland Norway (C3). 12-month rise. Per cent 15 15 C3 mainland Norway 10 10 C2 5 5 Credit to households 0 1997 0 1998 Source: Norges Bank 1999 2000 2001 2002 Consumer prices (CPI and CPI-ATE). 12-month rise. Per cent 4,5 4,5 4,0 4,0 CPI 3,5 3,5 3,0 3,0 CPI-ATE 2,5 2,5 2,0 2,0 1,5 1,5 1,0 1,0 0,5 0,5 0,0 0,0 jul 00 sep nov 00 00 jan 01 Source: Norges Bank mar mai 01 01 jul 01 sep nov 01 01 jan 02 mar mai 02 02 jul 02 sep 02 Three-month interest rates in the US, the euro area and Japan. Per cent 7 7 6 6 US 5 5 4 4 3 3 Euro area1) 2 2 1 1 Japan 0 1995 0 1996 1) Theoretical 1997 1998 ECU rate up to December 1998 Sources: EcoWin and Norges Bank 1999 2000 2001 2002 Mainland GDP and private consumption. Percentage change from previous year. 7 7 Private consumption 6 5 4 6 5 Mainland GDP. 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Source: Statistics Norway