Download Chart 1.1 - Norges Bank

Charts for Inflation Report 3/2002
Chart 1.1 Import-weighted exchange rate (I-44),
trade-weighted exchange rate1) and interest rate
differential against other countries2).. Weekly figures
4,0
85
I-44 (right-hand scale)
3,5
3,0
12-month interest
rate differential
(left-hand scale)
95
2,5
100
2,0
105
TWI (right-hand scale)
1,5
1,0
2000
110
115
2001
1) A falling
2)
90
2002
curve denotes an appreciation of the krone
The US, the euro area, the UK and Sweden
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 1.2 Consumer prices adjusted for tax changes
and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE). Total1)
and distributed by imported and domestically
produced goods and services2). 12-month rise. Per
cent
5
4
Goods and services produced in Norway
3
5
4
3
2
CPI-ATE
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
Imported consumer goods
-2
-3
1999
-3
2000
2001
2002
1) Norges
Bank's estimates up to July 2000, thereafter figures
published by Statistics Norway
2)
-2
Norges Bank's estimates
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 1.3 Consumer prices. Total and adjusted for
tax changes and excluding energy products. 12month rise. Per cent
4
CPI-AT1)
3
3
2
2
CPI-ATE1)
1
0
1999
4
CPI
1
0
2000
2001
2002
CPI-AT: CPI adjusted for tax changes
CPI-ATE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products
1) Norges
Bank's estimates up to July 2000, thereafter figures published
by Statistics Norway
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 1.4 Consumer prices for some imported goods
adjusted for tax changes. 12-month rise. Per cent
4
4
Imported consumer goods
Cars
0
0
-4
Clothing and
footwear
-8
-4
-8
Audiovisual equipment
-12
1999
-12
2000
2001
2002
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 1.5 GDP growth in the US, the euro area and
among Norway’s trading partners. Percentage
change from previous quarter. Annual rate
6
4
US
Euro area
Trading partners
6
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
01 Q1 01 Q2 01 Q3 01 Q4 02 Q1 02 Q2
Sources: National sources of statistics and EcoWin
Chart 1.6 Equity prices in Norway, the US and the
UK. Index, Week 1 in 2002 = 100.
110
FTSE 100
100
90
80
Wilshire 5000
70
60
jan 02
Source: EcoWin
OSEBX
apr 02
jul 02
okt 02
Chart 1.7 Oil price, Brent Blend. USD per
barrel. Daily figures
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
1999
0
2000
Source: Norges Bank
2001
2002
Chart 1.8 Three-month forward rates1) for Germany
and the US. Monthly figures. Per cent
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
Germany
3
2
4
3
US
2
1
1
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
0
Three-month forward rates are estimated using money market
rates and government bond yields with different maturities as
observed on 24 October.
1)
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 1.9 Registered unemployed and persons on
labour market programmes. Percentage of labour
force. Seasonally adjusted
8
7
6
8
Registered unemployed and
labour market programmes
7
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
Registered unemployed
2
1
1
0
1995
0
1997
1999
Source: Directorate of Labour
2001
Chart 1.10 Change in unemployment on same
month previous year. In thousands of persons
16
16
Whole country
12
8
4
Eastern Norway
8
Western Norway
4
0
-4
12
0
Central and
northern Norway
Southern
Norway
-8
jan 00 jul 00 jan 01 jul 01 jan 02 jul 02
Source: Directorate of Labour
-4
-8
Chart 1.11 Change in employment 2001 and 20021).
Per cent
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-2
1)
2001
2002
Manu- Consfacturing truction
Private Public sector Total
services
Change first half of 2001 to first half of 2002
Source: Statistics Norway
-1
-2
Chart 1.12 Consumer confidence indicator.1)
Unadjusted figures. 1999 Q1 - 2002 Q3
45
45
Own
economy
30
30
15
15
0
-15
-30
1999
Norway's
economy
Total
0
-15
-30
2000
2001
2002
1) Provides an expression of the share with a positive assessment
of the current situation and outlook for the future less the share
with a negative assessment.
Source: Norsk Gallup Institutt AS
Chart 1.13 House prices and credit to households.
12-month rise. Per cent
25
25
Rise in house prices
20
20
15
Credit to
households
15
10
10
5
5
0
1998
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
Sources: Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents
and Norges Bank
Chart 1.14 Goods consumption index. 1995 = 100.
Seasonally adjusted volume
124
124
2002
121
2001
118
2000
121
118
115
115
112
112
Jan Mar May
Source: Statistics Norway
Jul Sept Nov
Chart 2.1 Equity prices and long-term interest rates in the
US, and prices for industrials. Index, Week 1 in 2001 = 100.
Weekly figures
120
110
120
Long-term rates
(10-year)
Industrials
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
Wilshire 5000
70
60
jan 01
70
60
jul 01
jan 02
jul 02
Sources: EcoWin, The Economist, Wilshire Associates
Chart 2.2 Consumer confidence indicators in the US
and the euro area. Seasonally adjusted diffusion
index. Monthly figures
150
125
10
US (left-hand scale)
Euro area
(right-hand
scale)
100
75
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Sources: European Commission and the Conference
Board Inc.
0
-10
-20
Chart 2.3 Capacity utilisation in industry in the US and
the euro area. Per cent of capacity. Seasonally adjusted.
Quarterly figures
90
85
90
Euro area
80
85
80
US
75
75
70
70
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Sources: Federal Reserve and European Commission
Chart 2.4 Three-month interest rates in the US, the
euro area and Japan
6
8
6
4
Euro area
4
2
0
1999
US
Japan
2000
Source: EcoWin
2001
2002
2
0
Chart 2.5 Wage growth in the US and the euro area.
Percentage rise on same quarter previous year
5
5
US
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
0
1998
Euro area
1
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
Source: EUROSTAT and Bureau of Labor Statistics
Chart 2.6 Consumer price inflation¹) in the US, the
euro area, Japan and the UK. Percentage change
from previous year
4
4
US
3
2
3
2
UK
1
1
Euro area
0
0
-1
-2
jan 97
-1
Japan
-2
jan 98
jan 99
jan 00
jan 01
jan 02
CPI in the US and Japan, HICP in the euro area and RPIX in the
UK
1)
Sources: EcoWin and national statistics sources
Chart 2.7 Oil price. Brent Blend. USD per
barrel. Daily figures
40
30
40
Futures prices 24
October 2002
20
30
20
IR 3/2002
10
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
10
0
Sources: International Petroleum Exchange, London
and Norges Bank
Chart 3.1 Mainland GDP and number of employed.
Percentage change from previous year, 1990-2004
6
6
Mainland GDP
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
Employment
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-2
Chart 3.2 Structural non-oil deficit. Percentage of trend
mainland GDP. 2002-2009
5
National Budget 2003
Revised NB 2002
4
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
2002
2004
2006
2008
Sources: National Budget 2003, Revised National
Budget 2002
Chart 3.3 Change in the structural non-oil budget
balance1). 1990-2003
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
1) The
budget balance as a percentage of trend mainland GDP;
change from previous year.
Source: National Budget 2003
Chart 3.4 Real underlying spending growth in the
government budget and growth in mainland GDP.
Percentage change from previous year. 1990-2002
6
Mainland GDP.
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
Real underlying
spending growth
-4
-2
-4
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Sources: Statistics Norway, Ministry of Finance and
Norges Bank
Chart 3.5 Household debt as a percentage of
disposable income¹) and household interest
expenses after tax as a percentage of cash income.
1980-2001
170
12
Interest expenses
(right-hand scale)
150
8
130
110
6
Debt
(left-hand scale)
90
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000
Figures for household disposable income taken from
the national accounts
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
1)
10
4
2
0
Chart 3.6 Debt in relation to disposable income¹) for
households distributed by income level ²). Per cent.
1984-2001
300
300
Decile 10
250
250
200
Decile 7-9
200
150
Total
150
100
100
Decile 1-6
50
50
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
Figures for household disposable income are taken from
Statistics Norway's income and wealth survey, which is based
on tax return statistics. The figures from and including 2000 are
projections
2) Decile 10 consists of the 10 per cent of households with highest
household income (over NOK 490 000 after tax in 1999), decile
9 consists of the next 10 per cent etc.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
1)
Chart 3.7 Labour costs¹) in Norway and among trading
partners. Percentage change from previous year.
1993-2001
Norway2)
6
6
4
4
Trading partners
2
0
2
0
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
¹) Hourly labour costs in manufacturing
²) Including costs of additional vacation days in 2000 and 2001
Sources: Ministry of Finance, TRCIS/IMF and Norges Bank
Chart 3.8 Relative labour costs in Norwegian
manufacturing compared with trading partners.
Index, 1970=100. 1970-2004
130
Local currency
130
120
120
110
110
100
100
Common currency
90
1970
1980
1990
90
2000
Sources: Statistics Norway, TRCIS/IMF and Norges Bank
Chart 3.9 Petroleum investment. Actual
investment and projections. In billions of NOK.
Constant 1999 prices.
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 3.10 Manufacturing employment, 1970-2004.
In 1000s employed
400
400
350
350
300
300
250
250
200
200
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 3.11 Developments in some indices on the
Oslo Stock Exchange. Daily figures, 03.01.00 24.10.02. Index, 3 January 2000 = 100
150
125
150
Manufacturing Financial
125
100
100
75
75
50
25
All share index
IT
0
jan 00 jul 00 jan 01 jul 01 jan 02 jul 02
Source: EcoWin
50
25
0
Chart 3.12 Change in employment from previous
year. Per cent. Unemployment1) as a percentage of
the labour force. 1980-2004
8
7
Unemployment rate
(left-hand scale)
4
3
6
2
5
1
4
0
3
-1
2
-2
Employed
(right-hand scale)
1
0
-3
-4
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
1)
Registered unemployed
Sources: Statistics Norway, the Directorate of Labour and
Norges Bank
Chart 3.13 Change in the labour force from previous
year. Per cent. The labour force as a percentage of
the population aged 16-74 (labour force participation
rate). 1980-2004
75
4
73
2
71
0
69
67
Change in labour
force (right-hand
axis)
Labour force
participation rate
(left-hand scale)
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-2
-4
Chart 4.1 Consumer prices adjusted for tax changes
and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE). Total and
distributed by imported and domestically produced
goods and services. 12-month rise. Per cent
6
6
Goods and services produced in Norway
4
2
4
2
CPI-ATE
0
0
-2
-2
Imported consumer goods
-4
2001
-4
2002
2003
2004
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 4.2 Consumer prices (CPI). Total and adjusted
for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPIATE). 12-month rise. Per cent
5
4
5
4
CPI
3
3
CPI-ATE
2
2
1
1
0
2001
0
2002
2003
2004
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 4.3 Annual wage growth1) and unemployment
rate2). Per cent
Annual wage growth
6
4
6
4
2
Unemployment rate
0
2
0
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
1) Average
2)
for all groups. Including costs of additional vacation days
Registered unemployed as a percentage of the labour force
Sources: TRCIS, the Directorate of Labour and Norges Bank
Chart 4.4 Wage share1) and return on total assets2)
in manufacturing. Per cent
10
76
8
74
Return on total assets
(left-hand scale)
6
4
Wage share (righthand scale)
72
70
2
68
0
66
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
1)
Labour costs as a percentage of value added
2) Ordinary
profit/loss after tax + depreciation - write-downs as a
share of total assets. Excluding oil companies
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 4.5 Producer prices and consumer prices.
25 trading partners. 12-month rise. Per cent
6
6
4
4
2
Consumer prices
2
0
0
-2
-2
Producer prices
-4
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
-4
Sources: EcoWin, Datastream, the OECD and Norges Bank
Chart 4.6 Import-weighted exchange rate and prices
for imported consumer goods adjusted for tax
changes. 12-month rise. Per cent
8
4
8
Imported consumer
goods
4
0
0
-4
-4
-8
-12
1996
Import-weighted exchange rate
(I-44)
-8
-12
1998
2000
2002
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 4.7 Consumer price inflation1).
Projection and uncertainty. 12-month rise.
Per cent
5
5
4
4
3
3
2.5
2.5
2
2
30% 50% 70% 90%
1
0
2001
1) Adjusted
1
0
2002
2003
2004
for tax changes and excluding energy products
(CPI-ATE)
The bands in the fan indicate different probabilities for
consumer price inflation.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 4.8 Different scenarios for the krone exchange
rate (I-44)
110
105
110
Import-weighted exchange rate, I-44
100
95
Average last 3
months (89.0)
Uncovered interest
rate parity
90
85
100
95
90
Stronger exchange
rate
80
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Source: Norges Bank
105
85
80
Chart 4.9 Different scenarios for consumer prices
adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy
products (CPI-ATE). 12-month rise. Per cent
4
3
4
CPI-ATE
Uncovered interest
rate parity
2
2
1
0
2001
3
Baseline scenario
Stronger
exchange rate
1
0
2002
2003
2004
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 4.10 Technical assumption1) and expectations
concerning short-term money market rates2). Per
cent
10
10
8
8
IR 3/02
6
Forward interest rates
24 October
4
6
4
2
2
0
2000
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
1)
Sight deposit rate
2)
Three-month money market rates up to and including Q3. Threemonth forward rates are estimated using four money market
rates and five government bond yields with different maturities as
observed on 24 October.
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 4.11 Projected rise in CPI-ATE under various
assumptions. 12-month rise. Per cent
4
Uncovered interest rate parity
and market expectations
regarding interest rates
3
2
3
2
Uncovered interest rate
parity, market expectations
regarding interest rates and
4½ per cent wage growth
1
0
2001
4
1
0
2002
2003
2004
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Annex 3
12
12
10
10
Overnight rate
8
IR 3/02: 7.0
6
4
2
8
6
Deposit rate
4
3-month money
market rate
0
1995
2
0
1996
1997
Source: Norges Bank
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
115
115
Trade-weighted exchange rate, TWI
(1990=100)
110
110
105
105
100
100
Import-weighted exchange rate, I-44
(1995=100)
95
90
85
1995
IR 3/02: 94.6
95
IR 3/02: 89.0
90
85
1996
1997
Source: Norges Bank
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
The credit indicator (C2), credit to households and total credit to
the non-financial private sector and municipalities, mainland
Norway (C3). 12-month rise. Per cent
15
15
C3 mainland Norway
10
10
C2
5
5
Credit to
households
0
1997
0
1998
Source: Norges Bank
1999
2000
2001
2002
Consumer prices (CPI and CPI-ATE). 12-month rise. Per cent
4,5
4,5
4,0
4,0
CPI
3,5
3,5
3,0
3,0
CPI-ATE
2,5
2,5
2,0
2,0
1,5
1,5
1,0
1,0
0,5
0,5
0,0
0,0
jul
00
sep nov
00 00
jan
01
Source: Norges Bank
mar mai
01 01
jul
01
sep nov
01 01
jan
02
mar mai
02 02
jul
02
sep
02
Three-month interest rates in the US, the euro area and Japan. Per cent
7
7
6
6
US
5
5
4
4
3
3
Euro area1)
2
2
1
1
Japan
0
1995
0
1996
1) Theoretical
1997
1998
ECU rate up to December 1998
Sources: EcoWin and Norges Bank
1999
2000
2001
2002
Mainland GDP and private consumption. Percentage change from previous
year.
7
7
Private
consumption
6
5
4
6
5
Mainland GDP.
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Source: Statistics Norway