Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
UNCTAD Training Course on Key Issues on the International Economic Agenda Topic 1: Managing Global Integration and Interdependence Geneva, 26 February 2007 Macroeconomic Policies Under Globalization Presentation by Heiner Flassbeck Director, Division on Globalization and Development Strategies 1 Global economic expansion continues in all the main regions Growth of world output, 2002 to 2006 (forecast) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 (f) World Developed countries Developing countries South-East Europe and CIS 2 Growth in developing countries is accelerating since the turn of the century 10 Latin America and the Caribbean M.A. Latin America and the Caribbean 8 10 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 10 2003 2005 West Asia M.A. West Asia 8 1991 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 Africa M.A. Africa 8 6 1993 1993 10 6 1991 East and South Asia M.A. East and South Asia 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 3 Most commodity prices kept growing in 2005 and 2006, owing to sustained demand of Asian countries and the US, supply constraints and speculation. Monthly commodity price indices by commodity group, 1995-2006 (Index numbers, 2000 = 100) 4 Current account balance of developing countries in per cent of GDP (1980-2005) 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 5 Argentina: the shock of a devaluation and the positive response of the economy Indices: 4th quarter 2001=100 400 300 200 100 0 II IV I '01 2002 III IV II I 2003 Employment in manufactures Exchange rate: pesos per US$ CPI III IV II I 2004 III IV II I 2005 III IV II I 2006 Nominal wages private sector Manufacture producer prices 6 Nominal interest rates and inflation, G-7 and developing countries 25 Per cent 20 15 10 5 0 1990 1995 Nominal interest rate: G-7 Nominal interest rate: developing countries 2000 Inflation: G-7 Inflation: developing countries 2005 7 Nominal interest rates and inflation are at very low levels in developing countries Asia 40 40 30 30 Per cent 50 20 20 10 10 0 0 1990 1995 2000 Nominal interest rate 2005 1990 Inflation 1995 Nominal interest rate 2000 2005 Inflation Sub-Saharan Africa 50 40 Per cent Per cent Latin America 50 30 20 10 0 1990 1995 Nominal interest rate 2000 Inflation 2005 8 Nominal interest rate, exchange rate and inflation in China, 1980-2005 25 10 20 8 7 Per cent 15 6 10 5 4 5 3 NC USD exchange rate 9 2 0 1 -5 0 1980 1985 Nominal interest rate 1990 Inflation 1995 2000 2005 Exchange rate (right scale) 9 A more flexible and pro-active macroeconomic policy should: • Put the monetary policy at the service of investment and growth, not only price stability. This would require the use of non-monetary instruments to control inflation; • Target a real exchange rate consistent with external competitiveness. This would require the pragmatic use of “intermediary” exchange rate regimes; • Additional policy space may also be gained through temporary capital controls. 10 The need for proactive development policies 11 The need for a re-orientation of development policy • Market-oriented reforms over the past 25 years did not deliver the expected results; • More attention has to be given to enhancing productive capacity and technological change; • This requires a reform of macroeconomic and industrial policies; • At the same time, developing countries have lost policy autonomy. 12 Good governance is not enough: per capita income growth, selected groups of economies, 1995–2005 and governance indicators 13 Open-economy industrial policies support innovative entrepreneurs • Industrial policies should aim at: – solving information and coordination problems in the investment process; – ensuring that production experience is translated into productivity gains; • Complementary trade policies aim to achieve international competitiveness in increasingly more sophisticated products; • This is not an inward-oriented protectionist approach but an element of strategic trade integration. 14 There is no “one-size-fits-all” industrial policy but there are some general principles • Innovative private enterprises have lead role; • Policy support should stimulate innovative investment and should not be a protectionist defence mechanism; • Support should not be open-ended but based on operational goals, observable monitoring criteria and specific time horizons; • Policy measures should result from dialogue between the government, enterprises and research institutions. 15 Need for more coherence in multilateral rules and disciplines The bottom line is: • More multilateral disciplines needed in monetary and financial relations, but more flexibility needed in the multilateral trading system; • Multilateral rules and disciplines must be strengthened in the area of macroeconomic, capital account and exchange rate policies to avoid ever growing imbalances; • Anne O. Krueger: …”the absence of a multilateral, nondiscriminatory framework governing international capital flows (and exchange control mechanisms) is an important and potentially costly gap in the multilateral economic system” (Singapore 2006) 16