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The Scope of Disaster Risk and Key Concepts Objectives: Highlight rising pattern of disaster loss Show range of inputs from different disciplines Introduce key concepts Why be concerned about disaster risk? Dramatic increase in global and regional losses in recent decades 2000 data - Munich Re reported 850 catastrophes w/natural trigger (100 more than 1999, 200 more than annual 1990s average) Sobering economic loss information In 1990s, global economic costs of disasters w/natural trigger > US$ 608 bn 3 x more than 1980s 9 x more than 1960s by 2050, expected to reach $US300 bn/annually Massive North-South Imbalance Developed countries annual loss around 2-5% GDP … compared to 13.4% of GDP in poor countries. International stats exclude drought and uninsured losses … under-report losses from South Likely Impacts of Climate Change >70% of all disaster losses are weatherrelated During 21st Century, climate-related losses are expected to increase dramatically. Climate Change Effects Increased temps from 1.4-5.8o C 19902100 Sea levels increase by 90cm Greater weather extremes (more intense droughts, more heavy rains, cyclones) Implications for Africa Impact on food and water security Increasing exposure to cyclonic and storm systems Increased probability of wild fires Expansion of malarious zones Lost foreign exchange from agricultural exports. Disaster Risk Reduction is Interdisciplinary Natural hazards perspective. Social vulnerability Disaster management Humanitarianism (Re)insurance and banking Hazards Perspective Driven from physical sciences. Focus on conditions/processes that ‘cause’ damage. Hazards classified as: natural technological social/violence compound Social Vulnerability Perspective Has its origins in social science and research on famine (Sen) in India Significant emphasis on structural factors that increase/diminish disaster risk (ie power, poverty, political marginalisation, family networks, community structures etc). Disaster Management Perspective Evolution from civil defence to civil protection to disaster management . Informed by UNDP Disaster Management training Programme of 1990s, aiming to broaden scope from past civil protection emphasis. Humanitarian Assistance Organised systems of humanitarianism emerged with red Cross movement in late 19th Century, but have grown dramatically in the late 20th Century - in response to refugee/IDP crises Often with a specific impartial, neutral relief mandate driven by ngos, multilaterals. (Re)Insurance and Banking Sectors Focus on improved management of risk and minimisation of exposure to financial loss. Focused risk assessment, risk reduction and loss sharing mechanisms. Pressing Need for Interdisciplinarity No one discipline can ever address issues driven by a multitude of hazards and socio-economic and environmental vulnerability factors. The field is both multi-disciplinary and interdisciplinary. A Tool Kit of Key Terms Hazard Vulnerability Disaster Risk Emergency Disaster Risk Reduction Disaster Reduction Hazard (or ‘trigger’) A phenomenon with potential to cause harm. (ie rain…..but rain is also a resource…) A hazard is NOT automatically a disaster. Eg drought, fire, some floods, heavy rain… are ‘normal’ elements of our environment. Vulnerability Characteristics of a household, community, province, business, ecosystem etc that increase the likelihood of loss. Disaster Risk Probability that a household, community, business, province etc… will be unable to resist, manage or recover from the losses sustained from a hazard without external assistance. Disaster Risk Is ALWAYS driven by … Hazard x Vulnerability. Risk can be increased or reduced from either side… in southern countries, disaster risk is almost always increased by social, economic and environmental vuln. Disaster Reduction Term emerged in 1990s International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction Parallels developmental objectives like …”Poverty reduction”... reflects an objective to achieve reductions in losses of life, of property of natural resources… by reducing hazards/vulnerabilities Disaster Management Refers to a suite of measures intended to strengthen management of risks and the consequences of disasters. Prevention Mitigation Preparedness Response/Relief Recovery Prevention Measures designed to provide permanent protection… or reduce the intensity of a hazardous event so it does not become a disaster… reforesting an unstable slope to prevent landslides Mitigation Measures taken well in advance of a hazard alert to minimise vulnerability of communities/households to a known/expected threat. Eg protection of deep wells in choleraprone areas… crop diversification to drought tolerant varieties in droughtprone areas. Preparedness Advance measures taken to predict, respond to and manage a hazard event…measures that prepare people to react appropriately before, during and after it. Eg dissemination of early warning info on approaching cyclone… intensified health education before rainy season. Disaster Response/Relief Measures taken to alleviate immediate hardship and meet basic needs for shelter water, sanitation, health care, as well as search and rescue of survivors. Recovery/rehabilitation Process undertaken by a disaster-affected community to fully restore itself to its predisaster level of functioning … and which enables it to become even more disaster-resistent. Eg planting/harvest of drought resistent crops…storm/cyclone-proofing essential community buildings, schools and clinics. Last two slides 1)Sudden-onset hazard - eg heavy rain, earth instability, fires, many weather systems. 2)Slow-onset hazard/process ‘creeping emergency’ ie some communicable diseases, drought Types of events Low frequency - high magnitude events (ie usually declared disasters)… those with long return period and large losses. High frequency - low magnitude events (often considered ‘normal’ /’routine’ threats… happen daily/weekly… but with relatively small impacts).