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Chapter Topics Aggregate Output The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables A Road Map Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #1 Aggregate Output Aggregate Output (national income and product accounts, or NIPA) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The value of the final goods and services produced in an economy during a given period Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #2 Aggregate Output Defining GDP: Three Approaches 1) Final good 2) Value added 3) Income Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #3 Aggregate Output GDP: The final goods approach Firm 1: Steel Company Revenues from sales Expenses (wages) Profit What is GDP? $100 $80 $20 $310 or $210 Firm 2: Car Company Revenues from sales Expenses Wages Steel purchases Profit Blanchard: Macroeconomics $210 $170 $70 $100 Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book $40 Slide #4 Aggregate Output Defining GDP Answer: $210 If both firms are summed ($100 + $210) the $100 in steel is counted twice Counting only the final good (cars) includes the intermediate good (steel) Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #5 Aggregate Output Question for Discussion What would GDP be if the firms merged? Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #6 Aggregate Output Defining GDP: Three Approaches 2) Value Added Approach Value added = value of production - value of intermediate goods Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #7 Aggregate Output Two Firm Example Steel No intermediate goods Value added = $100 Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #8 Aggregate Output Two Firm Example Cars Intermediate Value goods (steel) = $100 added = $210 - $100 = $110 Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #9 Aggregate Output Two Firm Example GDP ($210) Value added steel ($100) value added cars ($110) Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #10 Aggregate Output Question for Discussion Would a merger change the total value added? Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #11 Aggregate Output Defining GDP Final goods approach Value added approach Sum of the value of final goods Sum of the value added along the production chain Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #12 Aggregate Output Defining GDP Approach 1 & 2 define GDP from the production side Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #13 Aggregate Output Defining GDP 3) GDP from the income side Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #14 Aggregate Output Consider Revenues after payment for intermediate goods Some pay indirect taxes (sales taxes) Some pay workers (labor income) Remainder Blanchard: Macroeconomics to the firm (capital income) Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #15 Aggregate Output Defining GDP GDP from the income side GDP (income) indirect taxes labor income capital income Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #16 Aggregate Output GDP: Income Approach Firm 1: Steel Company Revenues from sales Expenses (wages) Profit $100 $80 $20 Firm 2: Car Company Revenues from sales Expenses Wages Steel purchases Profit Blanchard: Macroeconomics $210 $170 $70 $100 Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book $40 Slide #17 Aggregate Output Income (steel) Income (car) Labor = $80 Labor = $70 Capital = $20 Capital = $40 $100 $110 GDP (income) $100 $110 $210 Compared to: GDP (value added - -$210) value added steel ($100) value added car ($110) Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #18 The Composition of GDP by Type of Income, 1960 and 1998 In Percent 1960 1998 Labor income 66% 65% Capital income 26% 27% 8% 8% Indirect taxes Question for Discussion How do these compare to the two firm example Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #19 Aggregate Output Defining GDP – A Summary Output Approach = Income Approach Final goods & value added = sum of indirect taxes + labor income + capital income Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #20 Aggregate Output Nominal & Real GDP Recall GDP = the value of final goods and services produced Value is the price of the final good Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #21 Aggregate Output Nominal & Real GDP Therefore, GDP = Price x Quantity of final goods produced Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #22 Aggregate Output Nominal & Real GDP (correcting for inflation) One Year 1991 1992 1993 good economy Quantity of Cars 10 12 13 Blanchard: Macroeconomics Price of Cars Nominal GDP $10,000 $12,000 $13,000 $100,000 $144,000 $169,000 Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #23 Aggregate Output Real GDP in 1992 $s Car Production x 1992 Prices 1991 -- 10 x $12,000 = $120,000 1992 -- 12 x $12,000 = $144,000 (20% increase) 1993 -- 13 x $12,000 = $156,000 (8% increase) Note: Nominal 1992 GDP = Real 1992 GDP Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #24 Nominal and Real U.S. GDP, 1960-1998 Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #25 Aggregate Output Technical Notes: For the Course GDP -- refers to real GDP Yt -- real GDP in year t $GDP -- nominal GDP $Yt = nominal GDP in year t Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #26 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables The Unemployment Rate number unemployed (U ) Unemployme nt Rate (u ) labor force (L) Labor Force (L ) employed (N ) unemployed (U ) Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #27 Die Arbeitslosenrate lt. Mikrozensus bzw. lt. AMS für Österreich Arbeitslosenrate (u ) Arbeitslose (U ) Arbeitskräftepotential (L) Arbeitskräftepotential (L) Beschäftigte (N ) Arbeitslose(U ) Beschäftigte (N1) lt. AMS Unselbständige Erwerbspersonen (N2 ) lt. Mikrozensus Unselbständige Selbständi ge Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #28 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables Macro Terms Unemployed and Discouraged Workers labor force (L) Participation Rate adult population (16 ) Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #29 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables What Do You Think? Can the unemployment rate rise when the number of employed increases? Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #30 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables Unemployment and Economic Activity Okun’s Law High output growth -- reduces unemployment Low output growth -- increases unemployment Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #31 Change in the U.S. Unemployment Rate versus U.S. GDP Growth 1960 - 1998 Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #32 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables Economic Policy Implications of Okun’s Law If unemployment is too high -- high growth policy must be pursued to reduce it If unemployment is too low -- low growth policy is required Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #33 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables Social Implications of Unemployment Unemployment rates and duration vary by population groups Certain groups incur a disproportionate share of the unemployed when unemployment increases Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #34 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables The GDP Deflator Average GDP price of final goods produced deflator in year t = Pt nominal GDPt $Yt Pt Real GDPt Yt Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #35 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables The GDP Deflator Pt is an index number • P1993 = 102.6 (1992 = 100) Index numbers are used to measure rate of change over time Pt Pt - 1 Rate of inflation %Pt Pt - 1 Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #36 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables The Consumer Price Index (CPI) Average prices of goods consumed The CPI is not equal to the GDP deflator Some final goods are sold to business, government, and foreigners Some consumer goods are imported Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #37 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables Steps in Calculating the CPI 1) Consumer expenditure survey to determine a market basket of items 2) Bureau of labor statistics (BLS) field workers price the items monthly (85 cities, 22,000 stores) 3) A base period is chosen, currently 1982-84 Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #38 Inflation Rate, Using the CPI and the GDP Deflator, 1960, 1998 Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #39 Change in the U.S. Inflation Rate versus the U.S. Unemployment Rate, 1970-1998 Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #40 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables Why Do Economists Care About Inflation? Prices and wages do not rise proportionately Inflation creates market distortions due to: Regulation (regulierte Preise v. “freie” Preise) Taxation (stille Steuerprogression) Verteilungsaspekte: fixe Transfers und Pensionen, steigende Preise Uncertainty for business investment Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #41 A Road Map The Central Question of Macroeconomics What determines the level of aggregate output? Short-run (a few years) -- demand Medium-run (10+ years) -- supply Long-run (50+ years) -- government, education, savings Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #42 The Organization of the Book Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #43 Aufgaben: Zeichnen Sie für Österreich (1988-2001; falls möglich) die Graphiken (vgl. Blanchard): Okun’s BIP- Law (Fig.2-2) und VPI-Index (Fig.2-3) Phillips-Kurve Blanchard: Macroeconomics (Fig.2-4) Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #44