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Export catching-up in the Mediterranean Countries Jean-Raphael Chaponnière Marc Lautier The weakness : The Textile-Clothing industrie in the MC X % Employment % X-M/ manuf manuf PIB Morocco 49% 32% 2.7% Tunisia 52% 32% 5.4% Egypt 35% 23% 0.5% Syria 30% 25% Turkey 25% 25% 4.3% The problem : Chinese Competition E *E E *E ik Cosij jk k 2 ik k 2 jk Chinese potential competition in the Textiles-Clothing Ind. k To compare export structures of countries « i » and « j », we use their export vectors (structures) Eik et Ejk (k=1,...,n ). The “ distance ” between these vectors (structures) is given by the cosinus of their angle; varying from 0 (absolute difference) à 1 (absolute similitude). 2 Chinese export structures are calculated: Direct (China) : Structure of EU Import; with quota Undirect (Chine *) : structure of Japan Imports; quota-free Syrie Egypte Maroc Tunisie Chine * Chine Turquie 0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 Textiles-Clothing Export Structures calculated for 236 products. The solution : Increase the Quality of Manufacturing Exports How to measure the « quality » of an export structure ? 1) ECU : The indicator of Export Catching-Up 2) Results 3) Analysis of manufacturing export niches 1) ECU : Method The idea : A manufacturing export is more advanced the higher the average income of its exporter. ECU measures the gap between the overall quality of a country’s exports and the quality level of the most advanced country. ECU is calculated in three steps : (i) We calculate a product quality index for each product as the weighted average of the GDP per capita of the exporting countries. We term it GDPproduct i : GDPproduct i = Σ (GDP per capita country j * Xij/Xiw) (With Xij, country “j” exports of product “i”, and Xiw the total (world) exports of product “i”.) (ii) We computes a ECU value for each country “j” : ECUj value = Σ (GDPproduct i * Xij/Xtj) (With Xtj the total exports of country “j”.) (iii) We obtain ECU country j by calculating an index that ranks each country between 0 and 1 : ECU country j = [ECUj value – Min ECU value] / [Max ECU value – Min ECU value] (With “Min ECU value” as the lowest level of ECU value in the world, and “Max ECU value” as the highest.) Implications ECU is an indicator of the “quality” gap between two countries export structures (The larger the gap with the leading country, the more backward the export structure) In the long run, ECU changes measures the speed of the catching up process of the country’s exports. 2) Results 1,00 Mexique Argentine Brésil Chili 0,90 0,80 0,70 0,60 0,50 0,40 0,30 0,20 0,10 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 0,80 NPI 1 NPI 2 Chine Inde 0,70 0,60 0,50 0,40 0,30 0,20 0,10 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 1,00 Egypte Israël Maroc Tunisie Turquie NPI 2 0,90 0,80 0,70 0,60 0,50 0,40 0,30 0,20 0,10 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 Regional trends 0,9 0,8 0,7 IRX Asie PM PM hor Turquie 0,6 AL Chine 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 1 967 1 970 1 973 1 976 1 979 1 982 1 985 1 988 1 991 1 994 1 997 2 000 2 003 G6 : South-Korea, Export intensity and Exports Quality 90% South-Korea ECU 2000 80% 70% 2003 60% 1988 50% 40% 30% 1967 20% 10% Manuf Export / GDP 0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% « Quantity » and « Quality » of Exports diverge in the MC NICs 2 0,8 Tunisia IRX 0,7 0,4 0,6 0,4 1967 0,3 0,5 0,3 0,4 0,2 0,3 0,2 0,2 0,1 0,1 0,1 0 0% IRX 0,5 1999 2003 0,0 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% X manuf /PIB 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% X manuf /PIB 35% 3) Share of Export Niches in Manufacturing exports Turquie Tunisie Syrie 2003 1994 Maroc Jordanie Israël Egypte Algérie 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Exports Niches Dynamic Nouvelles niches disparus et diminués Renforcement Turquie Tunisie M aroc Egy p te -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% Niches Export Growth : • Consolidation of the existing niches, no creation of new niches. • Concentrated on: - a limited number of products (50% from 2 products in Morocco, from 5 products in Tunisia). - The UE market. Where the demand is not dynamic No change No (trade) future ! • Export growth, but low quality of exports • No process of export diversification • Increase of Asian Competition in the EU