Download ECU country j

Export catching-up in the
Mediterranean Countries
Jean-Raphael Chaponnière
Marc Lautier
The weakness : The Textile-Clothing
industrie in the MC
X % Employment % X-M/
manuf manuf
PIB
Morocco 49%
32%
2.7%
Tunisia
52%
32%
5.4%
Egypt
35%
23%
0.5%
Syria
30%
25%
Turkey
25%
25%
4.3%
The problem : Chinese Competition
E *E
E *E
ik
Cosij 
jk
k
2
ik
k
2
jk
Chinese potential competition in
the Textiles-Clothing Ind.
k
To compare export structures of countries « i »
and « j », we use their export vectors (structures)
Eik et Ejk (k=1,...,n ). The “ distance ” between
these vectors (structures) is given by the cosinus
of their angle; varying from 0 (absolute
difference) à 1 (absolute similitude).
2 Chinese export structures are calculated:
Direct (China) : Structure of EU Import;
with quota
Undirect (Chine *) : structure of Japan
Imports; quota-free
Syrie
Egypte
Maroc
Tunisie
Chine *
Chine
Turquie
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
Textiles-Clothing Export Structures calculated for 236
products.
The solution : Increase the Quality of
Manufacturing Exports
How to measure the « quality » of an export
structure ?
1) ECU : The indicator of Export Catching-Up
2) Results
3) Analysis of manufacturing export niches
1) ECU : Method
The idea : A manufacturing export is more
advanced the higher the average income of
its exporter.
ECU measures the gap between the overall
quality of a country’s exports and the
quality level of the most advanced country.
ECU is calculated in three steps :
(i)
We calculate a product quality index for each product
as the weighted average of the GDP per capita of the
exporting countries.
We term it GDPproduct i
:
GDPproduct i = Σ (GDP per capita country j * Xij/Xiw)
(With Xij, country “j” exports of product “i”, and Xiw the total (world)
exports of product “i”.)
(ii) We computes a ECU value for each country “j” :
ECUj value = Σ (GDPproduct i * Xij/Xtj)
(With Xtj the total exports of country “j”.)
(iii) We obtain ECU country j by calculating an index that ranks
each country between 0 and 1 :
ECU country j
= [ECUj value – Min ECU value] / [Max ECU value – Min ECU value]
(With “Min ECU value” as the lowest level of ECU value in the world, and “Max ECU
value” as the highest.)
Implications
ECU is an indicator of the “quality” gap
between two countries export structures
(The larger the gap with the leading country, the more
backward the export structure)
In the long run, ECU changes measures the
speed of the catching up process of the
country’s exports.
2) Results
1,00
Mexique
Argentine
Brésil
Chili
0,90
0,80
0,70
0,60
0,50
0,40
0,30
0,20
0,10
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
0,80
NPI 1
NPI 2
Chine
Inde
0,70
0,60
0,50
0,40
0,30
0,20
0,10
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
1,00
Egypte
Israël
Maroc
Tunisie
Turquie
NPI 2
0,90
0,80
0,70
0,60
0,50
0,40
0,30
0,20
0,10
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
Regional trends
0,9
0,8
0,7
IRX
Asie
PM
PM hor Turquie
0,6
AL
Chine
0,5
0,4
0,3
0,2
0,1
1 967 1 970 1 973 1 976 1 979 1 982 1 985 1 988 1 991 1 994 1 997 2 000 2 003
G6 : South-Korea, Export intensity and Exports Quality
90%
South-Korea
ECU
2000
80%
70%
2003
60%
1988
50%
40%
30%
1967
20%
10%
Manuf Export / GDP
0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
« Quantity » and « Quality » of Exports
diverge in the MC
NICs 2
0,8
Tunisia
IRX
0,7
0,4
0,6
0,4
1967
0,3
0,5
0,3
0,4
0,2
0,3
0,2
0,2
0,1
0,1
0,1
0
0%
IRX
0,5
1999
2003
0,0
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
X manuf /PIB
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
X manuf /PIB
35%
3) Share of Export Niches in
Manufacturing exports
Turquie
Tunisie
Syrie
2003
1994
Maroc
Jordanie
Israël
Egypte
Algérie
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Exports Niches Dynamic
Nouvelles niches
disparus et diminués
Renforcement
Turquie
Tunisie
M aroc
Egy p te
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
Niches Export Growth :
• Consolidation of the existing niches, no
creation of new niches.
• Concentrated on:
- a limited number of products (50% from
2 products in Morocco, from 5 products in
Tunisia).
- The UE market.
Where the demand is not dynamic
No change  No (trade) future !
• Export growth, but low quality of exports
• No process of export diversification
• Increase of Asian Competition in the EU