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Macroeconomics Mini-course Professor Pierre Yared Questions • What is GDP? • What drives economic growth? • What drives investment? • What drives inflation and exchange rates? 2 Questions What is GDP? 3 World GDP Share of world production, 2002, using current exchange rates 4 GDP Definition Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The market value of final goods and services newly produced within a fixed period of time, within the geographic boundaries of a country 5 Three Equivalent Ways of Measuring GDP • Production Approach • Inputs (capital and labor) generate output • Value added by individual firms • Sectoral data (e.g., agriculture, manufacturing, services) • Income Approach • Payments made to inputs into production • Wages to workers and rental rate to owners of capital • Expenditure Approach • Components: Consumption, investment, public spending, net exports • Most important and common way of measuring GDP 6 GDP by Expenditure: International Comparisons, 2007 China G, 13% NX, 9% Brazil C, 36% G, 20% I, 15% I, 43% US G, 19% NX, 5% I, 15% NX, 2% C, 63% Sweden NX, 8% G, 26% C, 70% C, 47% I, 18% 7 Questions What drives economic growth? 8 US Growth Experience $35,000 US Real GDP per capita $30,000 Canada Australia Japan Germany U.K $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 Argentina Mexico Brazil $10,000 $5,000 China India Nigeria $0 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 9 How Do We Make Sense of Different Growth Experiences? 6000 Real GDP per Capita in 1996 Chain weighted $ (PWT) 5000 4000 China 3000 Congo, Dem. Rep. 2000 1000 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year 10 Production Over Many Years Capital Production Labor Consumption + Public Spending + Net Exports Investment New Production Even More Capital New Labor 11 Three Ways of Increasing GDP per Capita • Capital per worker • More machines per worker raises output per person • Increases if investment is rising faster than the size of the work force • Participation rate • A higher fraction of population in workforce raises output per person • Major increases have occurred through women’s liberation • Total factor productivity (TFP) • Corresponds to production process (black box) in flow diagram • Implication: Same inputs can produce different outputs • Most important determinant of cross-country income differences 12 Latin America Has Not Caught Up: Why? Y/Pop = N/Pop A (K/N)0.3 1950 Latin America 3,100 .34 US 11,100 .40 Latin America / US .28 .85 .49 (.27).3 = .68 .42 (.32).3 = .71 2000 Latin America 7,400 .35 US 33,400 .48 Latin America / US .22 .73 Based on data and analysis in Cole, Ohanian, Riascos, Schmitz (2005) 13 What is Behind Total Factor Productivity? • Education • Important for workers to have skills and abilities to be productive • Important to accumulate these over time through schooling • Geography • Important to develop effective agriculture to start growth • Important to have low disease and a healthy workforce • Important to have access to trade to adopt technology • Institutions • Important to prevent expropriation of investment by government • Important to enforce legal contracts among parties • Important to have low policy volatility and stable business environment 14 Questions What drives investment? 15 Investment is Financed by Savings Private Savings + Public Savings + International Savings = Investment 16 Three Sources of Savings • Private Savings • Households can set aside resources or borrow them • Businesses can also borrow or lend • Public Savings • Governments can set aside resources or borrow them • Government deficit is negative of public savings • i.e., Public spending minus revenues • Private Savings + Public Savings = National Savings • International Savings • Neighbors can set aside resources or borrow them • Current account deficit is international savings 17 Saving Identity in the US (% of GDP) 25% Investment 20% Private Savings 15% 10% Government Savings 5% International Savings 0% 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 -5% 18 Questions What drives inflation and exchange rates? 19 US Inflation Inflation y-o-y% change in CPI 16% 14% 12% percent 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 -2% Date 20 China Inflation 21 Montly Percent Change (non-annualized) -1.0 Jan-06 Jan-03 Jan-00 Jan-97 Jan-94 July 89: 197% Jan-91 Jan-88 Jan-85 Jan-82 Jan-79 Jan-76 Jan-73 Jan-70 Argentina Hyperinflation Monthly Inflation in Argentina 49.0 March 90: 96% 39.0 29.0 19.0 9.0 22 Determinants of Inflation • Inflation is measured as the rate of change of the price level • Various measures: CPI, GDP deflator, CPE • Headline inflation: aggregates all prices • Core inflation: Excludes food and energy and is less volatile • What determines long run inflation? Money growth • Also applies to hyperinflation at shorter frequencies • Why do governments allow hyperinflation?: Seignorage • Inflation is a form of indirect taxation on holders of money 23 Determinants of Exchange Rates • Long run: Inflation differences affect exchange rate • Currency experiencing more inflation is also depreciating • Implication: Can fight hyperinflation by fixing exchange rate • Medium run: International trade competition affect exchange rates • Tendency for real price of goods to equalize through competition • Cheaper goods from one country cause its currency to appreciate • If central bank fixes exchange rate, nominal price of goods will rise • Short run: Interest rate movements affect exchange rates • Increase in interest rate in one country causes its currency to rise 24 Summary of Questions Answered • What is GDP? • What drives economic growth? • What drives investment? • What drives inflation and exchange rates? 25