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You cannot solve the problem with the same
thinking that created the problem Albert Einstein
Consumption and Sustainability:
A Quantitative Approach
Based on T21 China
Weishuang Qu, Ph.D.
Director of Modeling and Analysis
Millennium Institute
January, 2013
Growth during 1990 – 2008
• Population: 16%
• Real GDP: 438% (9.8% pa)
• GHG emissions: 2.5 B Ton to 7.2 B
Ton
• Export and consumption driven
Consumption growth 1990 –
2008
• Vehicles: 5 M to 50 M (2012: 109 M)
• Per capita living space: 13.7 M2 to
29.5 M2
• Soybean import: 0 to over 30 M Tons
(2012: 57 M)
• Oil consumption: 120 MT to 400 MT
• What do they mean?
Vehicle:
• Average iron/steel: 2 tons
• Infrastructure (Parking space and
paved roads)
• Fuel consumption
Living space, each square
meter:
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300 - 400 kg of cement
70 – 100 kg of steel
Heating, AC, lighting
Expansion of urban land
Soybean imports of 30 MT:
• At yield of 2 tons per hectare (actual
yield: 1.4 – 1.9)
• 15 M Ha extra land needed
• 12.5% of China’s crop land (and
irrigation water)
• (Domestic soybean production: 15 M
Tons)
Oil consumption of 400
MT/Year:
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8 M Barrels/day
Half was imported
Fast growing
Domestic production: 200 MT/Year
Where will China be in 2030?
• Depends on policy, tech, awareness,
others
• Need a consistent, quantitative tool
• T21 jointly developed by MI and
ISTIC in 2009
Features of T21:
• Integrated (economy, social, and
environment) and long term
• Interactive, transparent, easy to operate
• Client owned and maintained
• What if analysis with alternative scenarios
• 20 years of R&D
Selected screens from T21 China:
Overview
Selected screens from T21 China:
Causal diagram to involve stakeholders
Selected screens from T21 China:
Comparison with data to validate model
Selected screens from T21 China:
Policy screen
Selected screens from T21 China:
Policy change to gov expenditures
Scenarios:
• Business As Usual (BAU)
• High consumption-low technology
• Low consumption-high technology
Policies/Assumptions for
LowConsumpHighTech
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Higher oil prices
Higher gas mileage
More renewable power generation
Faster technology advance in
manufacturing and agriculture
• Smaller living areas
• Slower water demand growth
Scenario output: oil demand
Scenario summary for 2030
Unit
Baseline
Low Consump
High Consump
High Tech
Low Tech
real GDP
RMB2000/Yr
6.67E+13
5.64E+13
7.23E+13
per capita real GDP
RMB2000/Yr
46,829
39,745
47,580
unemployment rate
% of workforce
6.12%
18.67%
0.00%
total electricity
demand
Bn KWH/Yr
8,191
7,124
8,949
total petroleum
demand
MT/Yr
1,059
791
1,294
fossil fuel CO2
emission
Ton/Yr
1.16E+10
8.87E+09
1.40E+10
Ha
1.15E+08
1.19E+08
1.08E+08
Ton/Yr
6.07E+11
4.61E+11
7.93E+11
Agriculture Land
total water demand
Scenario analysis for
LowConsumptionHighTech
• GDP 15% lower, but still 300% of 2008
• Energy and fossil fuel emissions much
improved (energy security)
• Land (esp. crop land) and water much
improved, indicating better food security
• Unemployment could be a big issue for
this scenario. Other policies needed, such
as organic agriculture to absorb more rural
labor
Summary
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Consumption patterns affect sustainability
A quantitative tool to help policy analysis
Identify potential benefits and costs
Model and script download:
www.millennium-institute.org
Thanks!
Questions and comments?
www.millennium-institute.org
[email protected]