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What Resources Matter to the Chemical Industry ?
Coal, Gas, Oil
Electricity (Hydro, nuclear or above)
Water (solvent, coolant)
Human Resources
IP
Metals (Fe ….. Rh)
Nonmetals (Chlorine, Bromine …. Selenium)
Minerals (CaMgCO3, Phosphates, Potassium…)
Reality Check I: Are we becoming more oil dependent ?
Tons of oil / Mio Euro of GDP (Germany)
Reality Check II: Are Commodities becoming Rare ?
Reality Check III: How about the Future (2005)
Reality Check III: How about the Future (2005)
Who digs Metals & Minerals ?
How are metals classified ?
• Iron (CVRD)
• Base metals: Al, Cu, Zn, Pb, Ni
• Precious Metals Ag, Au, Pd, Pt
Precious Metal Prices (US $ / ounce)
4500
4000
US $ / ounce
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Ag
Ru
Ir
Os
Pd
Au
Re
Pt
Rh
Precious Metal Prices
US $ / ounce
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
Pt
Au
Pd
Os
2000
1500
1000
Ir
500
Ru
Ag
0
1
Rh
Base Metal Prices (US $ / pound)
April 2006
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Pb
Al
Zn
Cu
Ni
U
Metals And Minerals: Zinc
• Brass (Cu-Zn alloy) known in Assyria & Babylon
• Up to 1800 exclusively mined in India, current mines in
China, Canada, Japan, Australia Korea
• Byproduct of Pb, Cu, Ag mining
• 50 % used in galvanization (corrosion inhibition)
• 20 % used for brass
• Essential metal with no substitutes !
Metals And Minerals: Zinc
• Demand > supply, new mines planned in Bolivia, China
• Largest producer: Teck-Cominco (Canada)
• World production 10.3 Mio tons (2004), up 6% from 2003
• Price expected to rise due to lack of new mines &
steeply rising demand from India/China
(China Jan-Jul 2005: 67,000 t compared to 15,000 in 2004)
Zinc Prices
Zinc Inventory
Metals And Minerals: Nickel
• No technical use up to 1850
• At present 70 % used for stainless steel
• Largest producers: Norilsk Nickel (RUS) Inco (CAN), Australia
1.2 Mio tons (2004) Supply growing 5 % annually
• Worldwide demand for stainless steel growing 5% annually
Vosey's Bay, Inco planned for 2006: 60,000 t
real production 2006 12,000 t
Ravensthorpe (AUS) 50,000 /y 2007
Nickel Prices
Nickel Inventory
Metals And Minerals: Pt - Pd
• Pt First described by Italian Humanist Caesar Scaliger but
known to South American Indians before that.
• Usual product of Cu and Ni refining but pure Pt mines exist
in South Africa
• Largest consumer: Car Catalysts, Ostwald Process
• Largest producer: Anglo Platinum
• 80 % of Pt from S.A., tendency rising, Russian Production
falling
• 50 % of Pd from Russia
• 850 $ /ounce Pt (Apr 2004: 994, 24 y high)
• 170 $ /ounce Pd
Metals And Minerals: Cu
• 16.5 Mio t 2005. Largest Producer: Codelco (Chile)
• Producing countries US > CAN > Zaire, Sambia, Poland
• Indispensable electrical conductor (only Ag, Au are better)
• Currently trading at all time high
• No general agreement on price development
Price predicted to fall in 2007 but rise again 2009
• Cu in Chile: 40 % of exports, 9 % of GDP
• Escondida mine is 20 % of Chile’s coppper and 2.5 % of Chiles
• Supports 10,000 jobs
• Electrolytic Copper refining
Copper Prices
Copper Inventory
Silver
• Historical corellation with gold price weakening
• Small market 10 % of Gold, strong price fluctuations
Sideproduct of Ni, Pb, Cu, Au mining other mining activities
Mexico, Peru, Australia, China, Poland
40 % industrial use (mainly electroncis, 30 jewlery, 25 % Photograp
Increasing demand (electronics) declining reserves, no newmines
Current reserves last a 5 years, 2011
Largest Producers Rio Tinto (GB), BHP Minerals (AUS)
End of film photography price drop, but slowly rising since 1998
Currently 6 - 7 $ /ounce
Solar Energy - Silicon
Prejudice 1. Not enough area
Example Germany: Roof area 800 km2
= 175 TWh (Conversion 13.5%)
= 33 % of current electricity use
Prejudice 2: Too expensive
• Doubling of production capacity reducess price by 20 %
• Break even point with current oil/gas prices I this decade
Prejudice 3: Negative energy balance
• Current solar cells require 7 y to recover energy costs
• Lifetime > 30 y
• New energy saving photovoltaics (organic dyes) on horizon
Solar Energy - Cost Analysis 2004 to 2050
• Solar electricity currently more expensive than fossil electricity
• Breakeven:
2011 (Germany) even earlier in California, Spain (China, India)
California, 12 pm: $ 0.8 conventional - $ 0.4 solar
• Will depend on political decisions (no incentive = baseline)
Solar Energy - Some Hard Facts
• Annual growth: 25-30 %
• $ 7 Billion (2004) up from 4.7 Billion (2003)
• Expected 2010: $ 40 Billion (MKD: China ? India ?)
• Demand for S.Cells outstrips supply (!)
• Bottleneck: Supply of pure Si
• Demand for Solar Si surpassed electronic Si in 2005
Installation (2004)
• Germany 300 MW
• Japan 280 MW
• US 90 MW (booo)
Largest Players:
1. Sharp (Japan)
2. BP (UK)
3. Solarworld (Germany) - Best of breed
4. Q-Cells (Germany
Solar Energy - The Market in 2006
Global revenues (2003) : $ 4.7 Bn
US Solar energy:
40 % global market (1997)
13 % global market (2003)
•Solar energies daily profile matches demand (!)
• Rating of solar installations in kWp (kilpo Watt peak)
• mono- or polycrystalline silicon dominant materials
• Direct current, has to be changed to alternating current
Munich Terminal 2 - 450 MWh electricity = 400 t CO2 / year
Large Consumers
Mio t
Comsumption
Production
US
PRC
JP
RUS
GER
IND
BRAS