Download PPT

Official Statistics in Times of Crisis
Walter Radermacher
Eurostat
1
Role and objectives of official statistics
 Sufficient advanced warning: lessons to be learnt
 Monitoring of the impacts on economy, society and
environment
 Monitoring of political responses and their impacts
Foresee and mitigate a possible crisis and support
the treatment of damages by means of high quality
statistical information and excellent communication
Walter Radermacher
2
Complex reality: theory, data, policy
 Behind the crisis:
– Globalised information society: A conflict between
over-information and under-capacities => misuse of information,
wrong expectations, missing awareness for risks/fuzzyness
– Reductionism in economic theory (micro based, linear, uncritical
believe in availability of data, theory not falsifiable )
– A “golden veal” in statistics: coherence + speed (fitness for
purpose of scientific and political users)
 A need for:
– Globalised macroeconomic theory
– More reliability, multidimensional figures (incoherence!),
structural information, de-acceleration, quality checks
– Comparability of statistical products and services on a global
level as well as for large geopolitical zones
– Corporate communication of complexity
Walter Radermacher
3
Special questions
 Independence of statistics
 Differentials between financial sphere and “real
economy”
– Treatment of quality in price and volume measures
– Integration of financial services within the production
boundary
 Off-balance sheet items
 Valuation
– “Market Price” and “Fair Value” principles
– Stocks vs. flows
Walter Radermacher
4
Monitoring of the impacts
 New pressures vs. old constraints
– Critical resource situation in statistical services (particularly
in their laboratories and communication branches)
– “More speed!” = more modelling = less quality
 Multidimensional statistical information
– Non-monetary indicators, satellite accounts
– Focussed presentation of relevant indicators
– A modern approach to communication (interactive tools,
WEB2.0 services, open platforms, …),
– Courageous explanation of shortcomings, “granulation”, …
– International comparability of communication
– An aggregate of wealth / balance sheet accounts?
Walter Radermacher
5
Further needs to adjust the revision of the SNA?
 AEG Nov 2008:
– In principle “no”; 2008 SNA gives comprehensive guidance
– Only some minor clarifications needed
• Purchases of governments of “toxic assets”
• Nationalisation of a bank by government
• Injections of funds by means of preference shares
• Government guarantees in return to a fee
 High Level Forum Nov 2008: choice between imputed
vs. observable transactions!!
 Private accounting principles!!
Walter Radermacher
6
GDP and beyond: satellite accounting
 Sustainable (constraints) development (objective) with three pillars
(economic, social and environmental aspects):
–
–
–
–
SNA = central framework
Interconnected satellite accounts
Resource allocation for both types of domains
Indicators, accounting and basic information with complementary
characteristics and quality profiles
 Agreement on indicator set, e.g. starting with
–
–
–
–
–
Growth of quarterly GDP, Inflation
Interest rates
Trade balance of goods and services
General Government: deficit + debt + follow-up of rescue money
Short term and structural business statistics, industrial production index,
orders in strategic industries (cars, construction) in months
– Prices of strategic goods (energy, raw materials)
– Social statistics: unemployment rates, index of poverty
Walter Radermacher
7
Proposal for the next steps
 Now: Exchange of information about ongoing work: extend the
format and platform of the informal conference, e.g.
– Action plan of the European Statistical System (at
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page?_pageid=3273,7554
8807&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL#5) )
– CMFB analysis
 Short term: Extend the reflections of the High Level Group
 Medium term: a group should ensure the link between private
and national accounting
 Long-term: improve cooperation between NSIs on a global
level, world national accounts and accounts for large
geopolitical zones
Walter Radermacher
8
Thanks for your attention
[email protected]
9