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GTAP-E From GTAP technical paper 16 Jean-Marc Burniaux and Truong Truong • Energy moved from intermediate input to value added tier. Shares a tier with capital. • The model has 8 regions and 8 commodities. • 8 regions: USA, EU, Eastern Europe and FSU, Japan, other annex 1 countries, net energy exporters, China and India, and Rest of the World. • Sectors are agriculture, coal, oil, gas, oil products, electricity, other energy intensive, and other industries and services. 3 scenarios - 1 No emission trading - Total emission constraints applied to Annex 1 countries. Targeted reductions: US 36%, EU 22%, Japan 32%, Other annex 1 countries 36% – 2 Trade among Annex 1 countries only • Emissions trading permitted among annex 1 countries – 3 Worldwide emission trading Closure no trade • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • exogenous RCTAX MARKCTAX dcwfd(NEGYCOM3,PROD_COMM,REG) . . dcwfi(NEGYCOM3,PROD_COMM,REG) . . dcwpd(NEGYCOM3,REG) dcwpi(NEGYCOM3,REG) dcwgd(NEGYCOM3,REG) dcwgi(NEGYCOM3,REG) c_CTAXBAS(REG,NEGYCOM3B) ! DTBAL exogenous for all regions except one, ! and cgdslack exogenous for that one region (which can be any one). dtbal("USA") dtbal("EU") dtbal("EEFSU") dtbal("JPN") dtbal("RoA1") dtbal("EEx") dtbal("CHIND") cgdslack("RoW") ; Rest Endogenous ; swap gco2t("USA")=RCTAX("USA"); swap gco2t("EU")=RCTAX("EU"); swap gco2t("JPN")=RCTAX("JPN"); swap gco2t("RoA1")=RCTAX("RoA1"); No trade scenario • Carbon taxes in $/ton that were required to achieve the desired reductions were $126 US, $147 EU, $230 Japan, $178 other annex 1 countries • The largest reduction in world output: US coal sector, the EU coal sector, Japanese gas sector • Net reductions in total output ocurred in all regions. • EEFSU, Oil exporters, China-India, and RoW increased production of oil products, electricity, and energy intensive industries • Total Changes in output of Annex 1 countries ranged from -126 in the US to + 4 EEFSU • Energy exporters’ output declined; • Other Annex 1 countries had only very small changes. Trading among Annex 1 Countries • Trading among annex 1 countries targeted carbon emissions in individual countries • Emission reduction target 22% overall and same regional targets • Emissions EEFSU allowed to increase 13 percent • Results: carbon tax $78/ton all trading regions • Percent changes: USA -27, EU -14, EEFSU -27, JPN -15, RoA1 -21 EEx 2, CHIND -1, RoW 4 • Overall changes in output quantities to achieve reductions smaller than in no trading scenario • Overall reduction was largest in coal sector. US coal sector declines 38% • Energy exporters and China-India registered small increases in oil products, electricity and oil intensive industries, but reductions in total output (Oil exporters, China-India) Worldwide emission trading • Trading worldwide targeted similar carbon emissions as the previous scenario • However, now overall emission reduction target 14% • Results: carbon tax $30/ton all trading regions • Percent changes: USA -13, EU -6, EEFSU -13, JPN -6, RoA1 -9, EEx -7, CHIND -32, RoW -9 • Overall changes in output quantities to achieve reductions smallest in this scenario • Largest overall % reduction now in Chinese coal sector (-38%). US coal sector declines 21% • Total output declined in each region. Terms of trade effects Region No trade Annex 1 World USA 0.96 0.54 0.18 EU 0.33 0.2 0.12 -0.87 0.92 0.05 1.34 0.66 0.43 RoA1 -0.65 -0.56 -0.4 EEx -3.02 -2.19 -1.47 CHIND 0.03 -0.01 0.8 RoW 0.26 0.22 0.32 EEFSU JPN Utility changes Region No trade Annex 1 World USA -0.25 -0.26 -0.16 EU -0.48 -0.27 -0.06 EEFSU -0.41 2.75 0.66 JPN -0.61 -0.27 -0.07 RoA1 -1.30 -0.86 -0.43 EEx -1.00 -0.73 -0.53 CHIND 0.08 0.05 0.45 RoW 0.16 0.13 0.10 Worldwide CO2 Trade without US • In scenario 3 all of the world except the US trades (US has no quota) • Total emission target remains the same Technology Change and US Participation in Kyoto Protocol • Trading in Annex 1 countries only with and without US participation • Coal-saving technological change in electricity production is introduced Updating GDP and Population Growth Rates • In the first (no trade) scenario, updated GDP and population grow rates are incorporated into the model • Emission targets are changed to reflect the altered relative importance of countries