Download GTAP-E

GTAP-E
From GTAP technical paper 16
Jean-Marc Burniaux and Truong Truong
• Energy moved from intermediate input to
value added tier. Shares a tier with capital.
• The model has 8 regions and 8
commodities.
• 8 regions: USA, EU, Eastern Europe and
FSU, Japan, other annex 1 countries, net
energy exporters, China and India, and
Rest of the World.
• Sectors are agriculture, coal, oil, gas, oil
products, electricity, other energy
intensive, and other industries and
services.
3 scenarios
- 1 No emission trading
- Total emission constraints applied to Annex 1
countries. Targeted reductions: US 36%, EU 22%,
Japan 32%, Other annex 1 countries 36%
– 2 Trade among Annex 1 countries only
• Emissions trading permitted among annex 1
countries
– 3 Worldwide emission trading
Closure no trade
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exogenous
RCTAX
MARKCTAX
dcwfd(NEGYCOM3,PROD_COMM,REG)
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dcwfi(NEGYCOM3,PROD_COMM,REG)
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dcwpd(NEGYCOM3,REG)
dcwpi(NEGYCOM3,REG)
dcwgd(NEGYCOM3,REG)
dcwgi(NEGYCOM3,REG)
c_CTAXBAS(REG,NEGYCOM3B)
! DTBAL exogenous for all regions except one,
! and cgdslack exogenous for that one region (which can be any one).
dtbal("USA")
dtbal("EU")
dtbal("EEFSU")
dtbal("JPN")
dtbal("RoA1")
dtbal("EEx")
dtbal("CHIND")
cgdslack("RoW") ;
Rest Endogenous ;
swap gco2t("USA")=RCTAX("USA");
swap gco2t("EU")=RCTAX("EU");
swap gco2t("JPN")=RCTAX("JPN");
swap gco2t("RoA1")=RCTAX("RoA1");
No trade scenario
• Carbon taxes in $/ton that were required to achieve the desired
reductions were $126 US, $147 EU, $230 Japan, $178 other annex
1 countries
• The largest reduction in world output: US coal sector, the EU coal
sector, Japanese gas sector
• Net reductions in total output ocurred in all regions.
• EEFSU, Oil exporters, China-India, and RoW increased production
of oil products, electricity, and energy intensive industries
• Total Changes in output of Annex 1 countries ranged from -126 in
the US to + 4 EEFSU
• Energy exporters’ output declined;
• Other Annex 1 countries had only very small changes.
Trading among Annex 1 Countries
• Trading among annex 1 countries targeted carbon emissions in
individual countries
• Emission reduction target 22% overall and same regional targets
• Emissions EEFSU allowed to increase 13 percent
• Results: carbon tax $78/ton all trading regions
• Percent changes: USA -27, EU -14, EEFSU -27, JPN -15, RoA1 -21
EEx 2, CHIND -1, RoW 4
• Overall changes in output quantities to achieve reductions smaller
than in no trading scenario
• Overall reduction was largest in coal sector. US coal sector declines
38%
• Energy exporters and China-India registered small increases in oil
products, electricity and oil intensive industries, but reductions in
total output (Oil exporters, China-India)
Worldwide emission trading
• Trading worldwide targeted similar carbon
emissions as the previous scenario
• However, now overall emission reduction target
14%
• Results: carbon tax $30/ton all trading regions
• Percent changes: USA -13, EU -6, EEFSU -13,
JPN -6, RoA1 -9, EEx -7, CHIND -32, RoW -9
• Overall changes in output quantities to achieve
reductions smallest in this scenario
• Largest overall % reduction now in Chinese coal
sector (-38%). US coal sector declines 21%
• Total output declined in each region.
Terms of trade effects
Region
No trade
Annex 1
World
USA
0.96
0.54
0.18
EU
0.33
0.2
0.12
-0.87
0.92
0.05
1.34
0.66
0.43
RoA1
-0.65
-0.56
-0.4
EEx
-3.02
-2.19
-1.47
CHIND
0.03
-0.01
0.8
RoW
0.26
0.22
0.32
EEFSU
JPN
Utility changes
Region
No trade
Annex 1
World
USA
-0.25
-0.26
-0.16
EU
-0.48
-0.27
-0.06
EEFSU
-0.41
2.75
0.66
JPN
-0.61
-0.27
-0.07
RoA1
-1.30
-0.86
-0.43
EEx
-1.00
-0.73
-0.53
CHIND
0.08
0.05
0.45
RoW
0.16
0.13
0.10
Worldwide CO2 Trade without US
• In scenario 3 all of the world except the US trades (US has no
quota)
• Total emission target remains the same
Technology Change and US Participation in Kyoto Protocol
• Trading in Annex 1 countries only with and without US participation
• Coal-saving technological change in electricity production is
introduced
Updating GDP and Population Growth Rates
• In the first (no trade) scenario, updated GDP and population grow
rates are incorporated into the model
• Emission targets are changed to reflect the altered relative
importance of countries