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2009 BIAC BUSINESS ROUNDTABLE
Global economic growth: how deep will it fall and when
will it bounce back?
Jonathan Coppel
Counsellor, Office of the OECD Chief Economist
Lisbon, 21 May 2009
Outline
 What are the forces bearing on the global
economy?
 How deep and long will the recession be?
 How is macroeconomic policy responding?
 Is the OECD too pessimistic?
FORCES BEARING
Financial conditions are tight
Note: A unit decline in the index implies a tightening in financial conditions sufficient
to produce an average reduction in the level of GDP by 1/2 to 1% after 4-6 quarters.
Source: Datastream; and OECD calculations.
Stock markets have plunged
FORCES BEARING
(Share price indices, 1 January 2007 =100)
Source: Datastream.
House prices are falling…
(Last data, share price indices,1 January 2007 =100)
25
United States
20
FORCES BEARING
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
Source: Datastream.
Denmark
Spain
Finland
Ireland
Norway
…dragging down housing investment in all
countries…
FORCES BEARING
Year-on-year growth rate
Note: 2009q2 is forecasted for most countries.
Source: OECD Economic Outlook 85 database.
FORCES BEARING
Lower commodity prices will boost real incomes
Source: OECD, Main Economic Indicators database.
Industrial production has tumbled…
FORCES BEARING
Index, January 2000 = 100
Source: Datastream.
FORCES BEARING
…driving inventories up steeply…
1 Inventory/sales ratio, index January 2000 =100, seasonally adjusted, total business.
2 Inventory/sales ratio, index January 2000 =100, seasonally adjusted, mining and manufacturing.
3 Inventory/sales ratio, index January 2000 =100, seasonally adjusted, industry survey.
Source: Datastream.
…and world trade to contract
FORCES BEARING
(Annualised quarter-on-quarter growth, %)
Source: OECD.
Growth will collapse this year and stagnate in
2010
Average
1996-2005
OECD area, unless noted otherwise
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2008
q4
2009
q4
2010
q4
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Per cent
Real GDP growth1
2.7
3.1
2.7
0.9
-4.3
-0.1
-1.5
-3.4
1.1
United States
3.2
2.8
2.0
1.1
-4.0
0.0
-0.8
-3.5
1.1
Euro area
2.1
3.0
2.6
0.7
-4.1
-0.3
-1.4
-3.5
0.8
Japan
Unemployment rate3
1.1
2.0
2.4
-0.6
-6.6
-0.5
-4.3
-4.4
0.4
6.6
6.0
5.6
6.0
8.4
9.9
6.5
9.3
10.1
Fiscal balance4
-2.2
-1.3
-1.4
-3.0
-7.2
-8.7
World real trade growth
7.0
9.5
6.9
2.5
-13.2
1.5
World real GDP growth5
3.4
4.3
4.1
2.2
-2.7
1.2
Memorandum Items
1. Year-on-year increase; last three columns show the increase over a year earlier.
2. Per cent of potential GDP. Estimates of potential have not been revised and therefore do not incorporate a
possible reduction in supply implied by the downturn.
3. Per cent of labour force.
4. Per cent of GDP.
5. OECD countries plus Brazil, Russia, India and China only, representing 82% of world GDP at 2000
purchasing power parities.
Source: OECD.
The recession is the most synchronised in
post-war history
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Proportion of all OECD economies experiencing at least two consecutive
quarters of downturn¹
1. The last historical observation is for 2008q4.
Source: OECD.
Unemployment will rise substantially
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
(In percentage of labour force)
Source: OECD.
Inflation will decrease
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Year-on-year growth rate, %
Note: Inflation is based on consumer price index (CPI )for Japan, PCE deflator for the US, and
harmonised index of consumer price for the Euro area.
Source: OECD.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
A slow recovery is foreseen
Source: OECD.
Policy rates have been slashed
POLICY RESPONE
Last observation : 4 May 2009
1. The solid line represents the policy rate of central banks. The blue line money market rates
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Japan, Datastream, ECB.
Fiscal policy is expansionary
(Cumulative impact on net lending, % of GDP, 2008-2010)
POLICY RESPONE
Fiscal packages
1. Simple OECD average.
2. Weighted OECD average.
Source: OECD.
Automatic stabilisers
The effect of fiscal packages on GDP varies
across countries
POLICY RESPONE
Effect on level of GDP (%), 2009-10
Note: Bars indicate values based on the reference multiplier case. Crosses show estimates based on a
high multiplier alternative. See Box 3.1 (p.114-116 of OECD Economic Outlook interim report) for
explanation of the basis for the multiplier assumptions. Countries are arranged according to the size
of effect in 2009.
Source: OECD.
Is the OECD too pessimistic?
 Some improvement in financial conditions and
some economic indicators point to a bottoming-out.
RISKS
 Large risks remain, but they are now more evenly
balanced.
 Financial system still vulnerable to weakness in real
economy. A faster increase in bond yields.
 Policy stimulus could be more effective than
assumed and financial problems resolved earlier.
Money market conditions have improved
RISKS
Last observation: 14 May 2009
Note: Spread between three-month EURIBOR and EONIA swap index for euro area;
spread between three-month LIBOR and overnight indexed swap for the United States.
Source: Datastream.
RISKS
Business confidence shows signs of an upturn
Note: Series have been normalised at the average for the period starting in 1985 and are
presented in units of standard deviation.
Source: Datastream.
RISKS
General government gross financial liabilities
Source: OECD.
High government debt tends to raise long-term
interest rates
RISKS
(Spread between long term and short term vs. government debt in % of GDP)
Note: Bars represent average across all OECD countries for which data is available over the period 1994 to
2007. Short-term interest rates are typically rates on 3-month Treasury bills and long-term interest rates
those on 10-year government bonds.
Source: OECD.
A final word…
“The national budget must be balanced. The
public debt must be reduced. The arrogance
of the authorities must be moderated and
controlled. Payments to foreign governments
must be reduced, if the nation doesn’t want
to go bankrupt. People must again learn to
work, instead of living on public assistance.”
…from Cicero in 55 B.C!
Thank you
[email protected]