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Close to Home: The development impact of remittances in Latin America Pablo Fajnzylber and Humberto Lopez Close to Home: The development impact of remittances in Latin America Colaborative effort of a large team: Pablo Acosta Cesar Calderon Massimo Cirasino Mario Guadamillas Yira Mascaro Maria Soledad Martinez Luis Molina Florencia Moizeszowicz Caglar Ozden Pedro Olinto Emmanuel Salinas Main Messages (I) • Remittances have positive effects… – Lower poverty and faster growth – Lower output volatility – Better education and health indicators • but these effects are modest, in part because migration flows have costs… – Broken families – VA lost to migrant destination country – Brain drain Main Messages (II) • …and pose important policy challenges – Reduction in labor supply – Real exchange rate appreciation – Need to expand role of the financial sector – High transaction costs – Effects vary with complementary policies (macro, governance, education) Main Messages (III) • On the whole – Remittances HAVE a positive impact on development and are an opportunity… – …and hence should be welcomed and encouraged. – However, they also have costs and create new policy challenges… – …and definitely are not a substitute for sound development policies. Outline • Stylized Facts • Development Impact: Poverty, Growth, Volatility, Human Capital • Costs: VA lost to destination country, brain drain • Challenges: labor supply, real exchange rate, role of the financial sector, transaction costs • Conclusions I. Stylized Facts 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 US$ billions Remittances to LAC have increased dramatically over the past 25 years 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 LAC is the top remittances recipient region in the World (US$ billion) 7 44 35 24 31 48 EAP (*) 2005 data. ECA LAC MENA SA SSA Remittances are very large in comparison with other international financial flows Region EAP ECA Remittances Remittances Remittances US$billions % of FDI flows relative to ODA ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------43 66.2 6.2 20 32.3 1.7 LCR 43 70.5 6.2 MENA SA SSA 21 32 8.1 420.0 457.1 73.6 2.0 4.8 0.3 (*) 2004 data. 0 Haiti Honduras Grenada Jamaica El Salvador Nicaragua Guatemala Dominican R. Ecuador Barbados Colombia Mexico Paraguay Costa Rica Antigua and B. Bolivia Trinidad and T. Belize Dominica Peru Suriname St. Vincent St. Kitts Panama Argentina Brazil St. Lucia Uruguay Chile % of GDP Remittances above 10% of GDP in 7 LAC countries… 60 50 40 30 20 10 In several countries more than 1 in every 10 families receives remittances... 30 20 15 10 5 Peru Bolivia Paraguay Ecuador Mexico Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua El Salv. Dom.Rep. 0 Haiti Percent 25 Large cross country heterogeneity in socio-economic status of recipients… 70 60 Q1 50 Q2 40 Q3 30 Q4 20 Q5 10 Haiti Peru El Salvador Guatemala Nicaragua Mexico 0 II. Development Impact Remittances tend to reduce poverty… • Two different methodologies: – Macro: cross country regressions with large global sample (controlling for endogeneity of remittances) – Micro: country case studies using household surveys (controlling for counterfactual income prior to migration) But magnitude of effects is modest… • Both methodologies yield same result: 0.4% poverty decline for each increase in remittances of 1% of GDP average poverty in LAC is 25% (under $2/day), would be 27.8% without remittances They also accelerate growth… • Methodology: standard cross country panel regression adding remittances (controlling for endogeneity) • Results: small but robust effect of remittances on growth and investment Increase in remittances of 1.6% of GDP in 1991-2005 responsible for an additional 0.27% in annual p/c GDP growth …and reduce output volatility • They move counter-cyclically with respect to recipient countries’ GDP reducing the volatility of economic growth • They increase significantly after natural disasters and financial crises minimizing impact of negative external and policy shocks -0.05 -0.10 Country Mexico Jamaica Dom. Rep. Paraguay El Salvador Haiti Ecuador Peru Honduras Guatemala Nicaragua Diff. Recip vs. No Recip. Remittances also raise school enrollment rates… 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 …and improve health indicators. Nicaragua (weight and height for age) III. Costs and Challenges There are also social costs… • For regular and irregular migrants – Broken families – Adaptation costs for migrants – Cost to those left behind (especially children) • And particularly for irregular migrants – Physical risks of crossing the border Haiti Dominincan R. Guatemala El Salvador 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 Paraguay Ecuador Mexico Honduras Peru Nicaragua % of GDP …economic costs… Potential GDP loses associated to migration flows 0% Venezuela Uruguay Paraguay Guyana/Br. Guiana Chile Brazil Argentina Peru Ecuador Colombia Bolivia Trinidad & Tobago St. Vincent St. Lucia St. Kitts-Nevis Grenada Dominica Barbados Bahamas Antigua-Barbuda Jamaica Haiti Dominican Rep. Cuba Panama Nicaragua Honduras Guatemala El Salvador Costa Rica Belize Mexico …“Brain Drain”… (Share of College Graduates who migrated) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Peru Paraguay Ecuador Dom. Rep Nicaragua Jamaica Honduras Haiti Mexico El Salvador Guatemala % Peru Paraguay Ecuador Dom. Rep Nicaragua Jamaica Honduras Haiti Mexico El Salvador Guatemala % And challenges, like reductions in labor force participation... Males 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 No Rem Rem Females 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 No Rem Rem 30 4.8 20 4.6 10 4.4 0 4.2 20 15 10 5 0 5 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.4 Remittances/GDP REER 6 4 2 0 10 8 6 4.7 4.6 4 4.5 2 4.4 0 4.3 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 5.1 5 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 REER Remittances/GDP Jamaica 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 Remittances/GDP REER Log of REER 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 4 Log of REER 8 Log of REER 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 10 Log of REER 5 Remittances/GDP 2003 40 Remittances/GDP 2002 5.2 2001 Haiti 2000 50 1999 Remittances/GDP REER 1998 7 Percent of GDP Dominican Republic 1997 El Salvador 1996 9 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 1995 Remittances/GDP REER 1994 11 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 13 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 15 Percent of GDP 1.5 1993 17 Percent of GDP 1.5 Log of REER 1.6 Percent of GDP 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Percent of GDP 1.5 Log of REER Remittances/GDP Log of REER 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Percent of GDP 1.5 Log of REER 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Percent of GDP 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1992 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Percent of GDP Exchange Rate Effects Ecuador REER Guatemala 4.8 REER Honduras REER Nicaragua 4.8 4.8 Impact of remittances on Bank deposits and credit is lower in LAC 20 15 10 5 0 Bank Deposits Bank Credit World LAC Fees have declined… (cost of sending US$300 to MX) …but they are only one component of the cost… Total cost of the service (US$) 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 Western Union Delgado Fees Citibank MoneyGram OrderExpress Exchange rate revenue Ria Envia More on the relevance of policies… •Impact on growth larger in countries with higher investments in education • Impact also increases with indexes of institutional quality (ICRG) • Larger effects in more open and stable countries IV. Conclusions Concluding Remarks • Remittances have a positive effect on the development indicators of recipient countries. • Yet, the overall impact is modest because of the associated costs to migration/remittances (social, VA lost, brain drain…) • and a number of challenges that may require policy responses (competitiveness issues, financial sector role, costs of remitting) • On the whole, remittances are opportunities, not substitutes for sound development policies Close to Home: The development impact of remittances in Latin America Pablo Fajnzylber and Humberto Lopez