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S&T and Japan
Edward Lincoln
For presentation at University of Illinois
April 3, 2008
Background
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Japan as a successful absorber of
technology from the world, 1870s-1970s.
Emphasis on math and engineering in
education rather than science
Emphasis on scouring the world for
technology
Assisted by government trade policy
Pressure to spread technology at home
rather than protect (licensing policy and
joint R&D projects).
Success implies a new environment
1980s to the present
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“catch up” over
Implies a need to generate more
technology within the corporation
Greater interest in protecting technology
A need to refocus education toward science
to underpin development of new
commercial technology
So what has been happening?
Preview:
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Japan certainly a major player in global
technology
But not as dominant as one might think
Concerns over “productivity” of spending
on R&D
Concerns about how to alter the education
system
Concerns about how to enhance universitybusiness partnerships
R&D spending has been rising:
Ratio of R&D to GDP
3.5
3.0
Percent
2.5
2.0
Japan
U.S>
Germany
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Japan has more technology to export:
Royalties andLicense Fees in the Balance of Payments
3,000
Receipts
Payments
2,500
Yen billion
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1985
1993
1998
2003
Or, tech trade more narrowly (apparently):
Payments/Receipts for Technology in the Balance of Payments
2,500
BIllions of Yen
2,000
1,500
Receipts
Payments
"
1,000
500
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
But still lags in basic research expenditures:
Basic Research As a Share of GDP
0.6
0.5
Percent
0.4
0.3
Japan
U.S.
France
Germany
0.2
0.1
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
And no change in low emphasis on science
education:
Science and Engineering Degrees as a Percentage of Total B.S., M.A., and Ph.D.s
Japan (total enrollment)
Year
Science
United States (degrees awarded)
Engineering
Science
Engineering
BS
MS
PhD
BS
MS
PhD
BS
MS
PhD
B.S.
MS
PhD
1970
3.1
10.8
17.1
21.1
37.0
17.8
10.1
8.5
29.3
6.0
7.1
11.3
1980
3.1
10.5
14.2
19.4
41.5
12.9
10.0
6.3
23.7
7.4
5.4
7.7
1995
3.6
10.2
11.5
19.6
44.0
20.6
9.8
6.5
25.3
6.7
7.5
13.8
2000
3.6
9.0
10.3
18.9
41.4
18.9
10.5
6.3
24.0
5.9
5.8
12.0
2005
3.6
8.6
9.6
18.6
40.4
18.6
10.6
6.6
23.1
5.8
5.8
12.4
A strong player in patenting tech in US, but little
relative change in 20 years:
Shares of Patents Award in the U.S.
60
Percent of Total
50
40
1988
2006
30
20
10
0
U.S.
Japan
Germany
France
U.K.
No change past decade in production of S&E
articles:
S&E Articles in All Fieds, by Country of Author
40
30
25
U.S.
Japan
20
Germany
U.K.
15
China
10
5
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
0
1995
Percent of World Total
35
Essence of the Japan puzzle: more R&D but less
impact:
R&D and Growth of GDP per Worker
9
8
3.5
Growth of GDP/Worker -- 3-yr. moving average (left scale)
3
GrowthRate for GDP/Worker (%)
average growth GDP/worker
7
R&D as Share of GDP (right scale)
2.5
6
5
2
4
1.5
3
2
1
1
0.5
0
1970
-1
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
0
And once dominant global share in
electronics slipping:
Share in Global Electronics Exports
50
45
Japan
40
EU-15
U.S.
Korea
Percent
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Why?
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Difficult to reform education toward
“creativity.”
Rigid university systems with little
competition for research money or peer
review of research results.
Little industry-university cooperation
Little commercialization of university
research
Government sponsored joint R&D centers
stifle alternative approaches
Language barriers inhibiting more extensive
international collaboration
Responses:
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National university reform 2003 (more
competition, peer review, independence).
Is it working?
More Japanese educated abroad? Numbers
falling past 10 years (currently 35,000)
More scholars spending time in U.S.?
Stagnant or falling numbers since 2000.
Efforts to enhance spin-off of university
research into new businesses
Still little corporate financing of university
research:
Sources of University Research Funds
¥ billion
share
Total University research
3,274
Own funds
1,542
47.1
Government
1615
49.3
Corporations
87
2.7
Non-profits
28
0.9
Contrast:
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Total University research spending:
 Japan, 2004: ¥3.2 trillion = $30 billion
 U.S., 2005:
$49 billion
Corporate financing role:
 Japan:
2.7 percent
 U.S.
5.0 percent
University-business connections:
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1998 law establishes technology licensing
offices for universities (enabling universities
to own technology created by government
funds.
2001 government plan to push “technology
parks” and a goal for 100 spin-off
companies from universities by 2005 (goal
reached)
Kyoto area exhibits some success in
university spin-offs (e.g. in biotechnology)
Conclusion
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Japan doing OK but not great. Spending on
R&D up but productivity falling.
Model still based mainly on efforts within
large corporations rather than on vibrant
universities and start-up businesses
Venture capital market remains poorly
developed
Labor markets still less flexible than in U.S.
Does Japan really need more emphasis on
basic science? Maybe not.