Download Research and Development in the FY 2010 Federal Budget

R&D in the FY 2016
Budget Request
Matt Hourihan
March 23, 2015
for the Congressional R&D Caucus
AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Program
http://www.aaas.org/program/rd-budget-and-policy-program
Trends in Total World R&D
in percentage of world R&D normalized by PPP
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
Other World
Taiwan
Russia
China
South Korea
Japan
Other EU
30%
France
20%
UK
10%
Germany
US
0%
Source: OECD, Main Science and Technology Indicators, Feb. 2015. World = OECD members plus Argentina, China, Israel, Romania, Russian
Federation, Singapore, Taiwan. Calculated using purchasing power parities. © 2015 AAAS
National R&D Intensity
Gross R&D investment as a percent of GDP
4.5
4.0
South Korea
Finland
3.5
Japan
3.0
Taiwan
2.5
Germany
2.0
U.S.
1.5
France
1.0
EU-28
0.5
China
UK
0.0
Source: OECD, Main Science and Technology Indicators 2015. © 2015 AAAS
Basic Research Intensity
Total basic research as a percent of GDP
0.8
South Korea
0.7
France
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
Source: OECD, Main Science and Technology Indicators, Feb 2015. © 2015 AAAS
Japan
Taiwan
Russia
UK
China
United States
Compared to the rest of the OECD, the U.S.…
 is a university juggernaut (thanks to scale)
 is a leader in quality publications (thanks to scale)
 is somewhat more oriented around public lab funding
 is far more oriented around defense R&D
 is around OECD median in university/lab patenting dollar for
dollar
 Features relatively more intense industrial R&D, industry
dynamism
 Generally has a more positive view of the contributions of S&T
R&D as a Share of GDP by Funder
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
Total
Federal
Industry
Source: National Science Foundation, National Patterns of R&D Resources series. © 2015 AAAS
Other
Research as a Share of GDP by Funder
1.2%
1.0%
0.8%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
Total Research
Federal Research
Industry Research
Source: National Science Foundation, National Patterns of R&D Resources series. © 2015 AAAS
Other
Federal Research Funding by Discipline
as a Share of GDP, 1978-2014
0.30%
0.25%
Life Sci
Physical Sci
0.20%
Engineering
0.15%
Environ Sci
0.10%
Math / Comp
0.05%
Social Sciences
0.00%
1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
Source: National Science Foundation, Federal Funds for Research and Development series. FY 2013 and 2014 are preliminary. GDP figures are
from OMB. © 2015 AAAS
University R&D as a Share of GDP by Source
0.45%
0.40%
0.35%
0.30%
0.25%
0.20%
0.15%
0.10%
0.05%
0.00%
Total
Federal
State and Local
Industry
Institution funds
All other
Source: NSF, Higher Education R&D survey series, and GDP data from OMB. Includes Recovery Act funding. © 2015 AAAS
University R&D Funding by Source
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Other Sources
Institutional Funds
Industry
State and Local
Source: NSF, Higher Education R&D survey series. Includes Recovery Act funding. © 2015 AAAS
Federal
R&D Change by Budget Function, 2005-2015
Percent change from FY 2005 in constant dollars
52.7%
Applied Energy Programs
51.3%
Commerce (NIST)
19.1%
General Science (NSF, DOE SC)
-7.3%
NASA Budget*
Environment Agencies
-9.7%
Health (NIH)
-10.6%
-14.2%
Agriculture
-20.5%
Defense Activities
Transportation
-60%
-40.3%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
*NASA has changed its R&D reporting and classifications multiple times over the years. Total agency budget is shown here rather than R&D.
Source: AAAS analysis of historical data and current R&D data, agency budget justifications, and other budget documents. Select DHS
programs changed functions over the years; the above data have been adjusted for comparability. © 2015 AAAS
Composition of the Proposed FY 2016 Budget
Total Outlays = $4.0 trillion
outlays in billions of dollars
Net Interest
$283
Defense
Discretionary
$528
[Defense R&D]
$77
Other Mandatory
$670
Nondefense
Discretionary
$495
Medicaid
$351
[Nondefense R&D]
$69
Medicare
$583
Social Security
$938
Source: Budget of the United States Government FY 2016. Projected deficit is $474 billion. © 2015 AAAS
Composition of the Federal Budget
Outlays as share of total budget, 1962 - 2016
80%
70%
60%
Payments to
Individuals
50%
All Other
40%
30%
Defense (non-R&D)
20%
10%
0%
Investments
(research, edu,
infrastructure)
Source: Budget of the United States Government, FY 2016. "Investments" include outlays for R&D, education and training, direct nondefense
infrastructure, and other grants, primarily for transportation. "Payments to Individuals" are primarily entitlement programs like Medicare,
Medicaid, and Social Security, but also include many other public assistance programs. © 2015 AAAS
Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010
billions of constant 2015 dollars
$1,200
$1,150
$1,100
$1,050
$1,000
$950
$900
Actual Base Budget Authority
BCA: Original Baseline
BCA: Sequester Baseline
Current Law
President's FY 2016 Budget
Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16
budget request. © AAAS 2015
FY16 R&D in the Base Budget by Function
percent change from FY 2015, nominal dollars
Commerce (includes NIST)
44.8%
Applied Energy Programs
23.3%
Agriculture
20.5%
Transportation
17.8%
Environment Agencies
12.6%
Defense Activities
8.1%
General Science (NSF, DOE SC)
5.0%
Health (includes NIH)
2.2%
Space
0.9%
-35.5%
Justice (DHS)
TOTAL
-40%
6.4%
-20%
0%
20%
Source: OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications, and agency budget documents. © 2015 AAAS
40%
60%
Total R&D by Agency, FY 2016
budget authority in billions of dollars
Commerce, $2.1
All Other, $6.2
USDA, $2.9
Total R&D =
$145.3 billion
NSF, $6.3
NASA, $12.2
DOE, $12.5
DOD, $71.9
HHS (NIH), $31.0
Source: OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications, and other agency documents and data. R&D includes conduct of R&D and
R&D facilities. © 2015 AAAS
Major Funding Priorities for FY16








Advanced Manufacturing
Low-carbon energy
Climate research and earth observation
Agricultural R&D
Infrastructure R&D
Antibiotic Resistance*
Precision Medicine*
Discovery Science:


Life sciences and neuroscience
Advanced computing
 COMPETES Agencies R&D: $12.1 billion, +6.6%

*New for FY16
National Institutes of Health
 $1 billion increase (+3.3%)
 Largest relative increases:
Alzheimer’s research, translational
science
 New initiatives:
Figure 1: NIH Budget
(Constant 2015 dollars in billions)
$45
$40
$35
$30
$25
 Antibiotic Resistance: $100 million
for NIAID
$20
 $200 million for Precision Medicine
$5
$15
$10
$0
 Large increase for Big Data
 BRAIN Initiative contribution
increases to $135 million
 Success rate: 19.3%
ARRA Funding
Cancer
Heart Lung Blood
Mental Health
General Med Sci
NIAID
NIDDK
All Other
Source: AAAS data and agency budget documents. Excludes Ebolarelated fundng in FY 2015. © 2015 AAAS
National Institutes of Health Obligations, 2003-2014
Percent change since FY03, adjusted for BRDPI
15%
10%
NIAID
5%
0%
-5%
NIH Total
-10%
-15%
-20%
Most individual ICs
fall within this band
-25%
-30%
Source: Historical obligations data and BRDPI deflators from the NIH budget office. © 2015 AAAS
National Science Foundation
 Total Budget: +5.2%
 Highest relative changes:
 SBE: +7.1%
 Engineering: +6.4%
 EHR: +11.2%
 New priority areas: Foodwater-energy; climate
resilience
 Several other cross-agency
initiatives boosted
Past and Current NSF Budgets by Directorate
Nominal percentage increase
8%
7%
6%
Average
Request Since
FY10*
5%
4%
FY 2016
Request
3%
2%
1%
0%
CISE
ENG
GEO
BIO
SBE
MPS
*Excludes FY12 and FY14, years for which the request was formulated before appropriations were finalized. Source: AAAS
analysis of past and current NSF budget data. © 2015 AAAS
Energy
 Technology offices: renewed
focus on efficiency, renewables,
ARPA-E, smart grid, CCS
 Manufacturing office to double
DOE Office of Science Budgets
Budget Authority in millions of constant FY 2015 dollars
$2,000
$1,800
$1,600
$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
 DOE Science: +5.4%
 Advanced Computing: +14.8%
$600
$400
$200
$0
 Domestic fusion research cut 15%
 ITER flat
 Small boost for EFRCS; Hubs
funding continues
Adv Sci Comp
Bio Env Res
High-Energy Phys
Basic Energy Sci
Fusion Energy
Nuclear Phys
Source: Historical DOE budget data and FY16 request.
© 2015 AAAS
Past and Current DOE SC Budgets by Program
Nominal percentage increase
15%
10%
Average
Request Since
FY10*
5%
0%
ASCR
BES
Nuclear
BER
HEP
Fusion
FY 2016
Request
-5%
-10%
-15%
Excludes FY12 and FY14, years for which the request was formulated before appropriations were finalized. Source: AAAS
analysis of past and current DOE Office of Science budget data. © 2015 AAAS
National Security
 DOD S&T, DARPA flat
 8.3% cut to basic research
Trends in DOD Science & Technology
in billions of constant FY 2015 dollars
$18
$16
$14
 NNSA: cuts to nonproliferation
R&D, select RDT&E accounts
$12
$10
$8
$6
$4
 DHS: NBAF funding completed;
moderate cuts elsewhere in S&T
Directorate
$2
$0
ARRA
Adv Tech (6.3)
Basic (6.1)
Medical research
Applied (6.2)
Source: DOD R-1 and historical data. Medical Research is
appropriated outside RDT&E title. © 2015 AAAS
Advanced Manufacturing
 National Network of Manufacturing Innovation proposal revived


Discretionary / mandatory mix
NIST Labs also boosted across an array of areas
 EERE: Advanced Manufacturing office doubled
 NSF: CEMMSS cross-agency initiative boosted
Climate and Environment

NOAA Office of Research: Major (~20%) boost for climate research

Elsewhere at NOAA: planned decreases for GOES-R, JPSS to make room for Polar
Follow-On

USGS: +14%, focus on climate resilience

NASA Earth Science boost


“The 2016 Budget redefines NASA and NOAA Earth observing satellite responsibilities to leverage NASA Earth
Science’s expertise in developing Earth-observing satellites while allowing NOAA to focus its development
efforts on its weather satellites and weather forecasting mission. Under the new framework, NOAA will be
responsible only for satellite missions that contribute directly to NOAA’s ability to issue weather and space
weather forecasts and warnings to protect life and property. NASA will be responsible for other nondefense
Earth-observing satellite missions.”
EPA S&T moderately increased
NASA
NASA Budget, FY 2007 - 2016
 Total budget: +2.9%

6.1% below FY05 levels
 Familiar contours:

Earth Science, Space Technology,
Commercial Crew program boosted

Cuts to Planetary Science, Astrophysics

Exploration Systems Development,
Aeronautics funding reduced
 Since FY10:

Earth Sci +22.6%

Planetary -9.6%

Astrophys -0.7%

Webb +28.1%

Heliophys -2.9%
in billions of constant FY 2015 dollars
$20
$16
$12
$8
$4
$0
ARRA
Exploration Systems
Space Technology
Science
Other
Space Operations
Aeronautics
"Other" includes support, construction, OIG, and education
programs. © 2015 AAAS
Past and Current NASA SMD Budgets by Program
Nominal percentage increase
8%
6%
4%
Average
Request Since
FY10*
2%
0%
-2%
FY 2016
Request
-4%
-6%
-8%
Earth Science
JWST
Heliophysics
Planetary
Science
Astrophysics
Excludes FY12 and FY14, years for which the request was formulated before appropriations were finalized. Source: AAAS
analysis of past and current DOE Office of Science budget data. © 2015 AAAS
Agriculture
 AFRI Increased to $450 million
(+38.5%)
 ARS receives $200 million injection
for facilities
 Two new innovation institutes:
biomanufacturing and
nanocellulosics
 $77 million total for antibiotic
resistance research
USDA R&D, FY 2000-2016
in billions of constant FY 2015 dollars
$3.5
$3.0
$2.5
$2.0
$1.5
$1.0
$0.5
$0.0
ARRA
Forest Service
Nat'l Inst Food Agr
Econ Res Service
Agr Res Service
Other
Source: AAAS R&D reports, agency budget documents, and
appropriations reports. © 2015 AAAS
R&D Change by Budget Function,
FY 2005 - FY 2016PBR
Percent change from FY 2005 in constant dollars
115.8%
Commerce (includes NIST)
85.3%
Applied Energy Programs
23.0%
General Science (NSF, DOE SC)
1.7%
Agriculture
-0.4%
Environment Agencies
-6.1%
NASA Budget*
-10.1%
Health (includes NIH)
Defense Activities
-15.4%
Transportation -30.8%
-45%
-25%
-5%
15%
35%
55%
75%
95%
115%
135%
*NASA has changed its R&D reporting and classifications multiple times over the years. Total agency budget is shown here rather than R&D.
Source: AAAS analysis of historical data and current R&D data, agency budget justifications, and other budget documents. Select DHS
programs changed functions over the years; the above data have been adjusted for comparability. © 2015 AAAS
Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010
billions of constant 2015 dollars
$1,200
$1,150
$1,100
$1,050
$1,000
$950
BCA: Original Baseline
Actual Base Budget Authority
President's FY 2016 Budget
Senate Budget
BCA: Sequester Baseline
Current Law (Sequester Levels)
House Budget
Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16
budget request. Excludes war funding proposals.© AAAS 2015
Limits on Defense Spending Base
billions of constant 2015 dollars
$610
$590
$570
$550
$530
$510
$490
$470
BCA: Original Baseline
Actual Base Budget Authority
President's FY 2016 Budget
Senate Budget
BCA: Sequester Baseline
Current Law (Sequester Levels)
House Budget
Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from FY16 request.
Does not include war funding. © AAAS 2015
Limits on Nondefense Spending Base
billions of constant 2015 dollars
$600
$580
$560
$540
$520
$500
$480
$460
$440
$420
$400
BCA: Original Baseline
Actual Base Budget Authority
President's FY 2016 Budget
Senate Budget
BCA: Sequester Baseline
Current Law (Sequester Levels)
House Budget
Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16
budget request. © AAAS 2015
 3. agency notes
 R&D
 STEM
For more info…
[email protected]
202-326-6607
http://www.aaas.org/program/rd
-budget-and-policy-program