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BEA’s KLEMS Statistics: Measuring Outputs and Intermediate Inputs Brian C. Moyer World KLEMS Conference Harvard University August 19-20th, 2010 www.bea.gov BEA’s Industry Accounts Input-Output Accounts Benchmark Accounts Annual Accounts KLEMS Statistics GDP by Industry Statistics Travel and Tourism Satellite Account R&D Satellite Account www.bea.gov 2 2010 Comprehensive Revision Time-series annual I-O accounts, 2008 1998- Incorporated 1997/2002 benchmark I-O accounts and 2009 NIPA revision Expanded annual data on business expenses by industry Improved measures of price change for the services sector www.bea.gov 3 Measuring Output Industry and commodity output based on a variety of sources Economic Census data Census annual surveys (ASM, SAS, etc.) Trade association data Data from other government agencies Detailed commodity distributions retained from benchmark estimates; manufacturing detail updated annually Expanded Census data for the services sector www.bea.gov 4 Measuring Intermediate Inputs Benchmark estimates based on Census data (~70%) and other data sources Annual estimates based on input category controls Benchmark-year inputs extrapolated with output quantity change Detailed inputs “reflated” with appropriate input prices Annual controls applied to groups of inputs www.bea.gov 5 Measuring Value Added Direct and indirect measures of value added by industry: VA = GO - II Direct measures based on compensation, taxes on production, and gross operating surplus from NIPA gross domestic income measures Gross operating surplus based on “quality-weighted” benchmark-year values; company-to-establishment adjustments applied www.bea.gov 6 Balanced I-O Framework INDUSTRIES Mining and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Utilities FINAL USES Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate Other Personal Consumption Expenditure Private Fixed Investment Change in Private Inventories Net Exports Government Consumption and Investment Total Commodity Output and Value Added Mining and Construction COMMODITIES Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Utilities Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate Other VALUE ADDED Compensation Taxes on Production and Imports Gross Operating Surplus Total Industry Output and Final Uses www.bea.gov 7 BEA’s KLEMS Statistics Consistent with BEA’s Annual I-O Accounts—“use” table decomposition of E, M, & S categories by 4-digit NAICS commodities Statistics available for 1998-2008 Chained-type price and quantity indexes and contributions by industry www.bea.gov 8 BEA’s KLEMS Statistics Data for 2008 60 Percent of Total Intermediate Inputs M 50 S 40 L S 30 L 20 K K K L E S 10 M E E M 0 Manufacturing Transportation & Warehousing Finance & Insurance K-capital, L-labor, E-energy, M-materials, S-purchased services www.bea.gov 9 Purchased Services Disaggregation S Aggregation of 30 4-digit commodities Utilities Outsourcing Other Services Telecomm Financial Rental & Leasing Domestic www.bea.gov Imports 10 Purchased Services Shares Input Category Shares of Nominal Intermediate Inputs All Private Industries 60 50 Percent 40 30 20 10 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 Outsourcing www.bea.gov 2001 2002 Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 Other Purchased Services 11 Industry production account BEA/BLS work on aggregate production account Ongoing work to develop prototype industrylevel production account: K & L services from BLS; E, M, & S from BEA Continued work to reconcile BEA/BLS industry output measures Longer term: KLEMS statistics available prior to 1998; industry production account available for earlier years www.bea.gov 12 KLEMS Prices Prices Paid by Industries for Economy-wide Inputs to Production 140 Energy Indexes (2005 = 100) 120 Materials Purchased services 100 80 60 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: BEA Annual Industry Accounts KLEMS price indexes for intermediate inputs, 2005-2008. www.bea.gov 13 Expanded Detail on Energy O t he r e ne rgy produc t s N a t ura l ga s P e t r o le u m a n d c oa l produc t s E le c t r ic P o we r N u c le a r Coa l H yd r o e le c t r ic O the r C o a l min in g O il a n d g a s e xt r a c t io n www.bea.gov 14 Quarterly GDP by Industry Transportation and Warehousing Industry Billions of chained (2000) dollars 380 380 375 375 370 370 365 365 360 360 355 355 350 350 345 345 340 340 335 335 330 330 2005 www.bea.gov 2006 2007 2008 15