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Week 3 Resources, Comparative Advantage, and Income Distribution Slides adapted from Bishop but modified by Lim Slides prepared by Thomas Bishop Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Introduction • In the Ricardian model, trade is explained by differences in labor productivity that gives rise to comparative advantage. • Differences in resources across countries can also give rise to international trade. • The Heckscher-Ohlin theory (or factor-proportions theory) argues that differences in resources (labor, labor skills, physical capital, land or other factors of production) across countries create productive differences that explain why trade occurs. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-2 Two Factor Heckscher-Ohlin Model We discuss the two factor Heckscher-Ohlin model using the following simplifying assumptions: 1. Labor and land are the resources important for production (two factors of production = labor and land). 2. The amount of labor services and land varies across countries, and this variation influences productivity. 3. The supply of labor services and land in each country is constant. 4. Only two goods are important for production and consumption: cloth and food. 5. Competition allows factors of production to be paid a “competitive” wage, a function of their productivities and the price of the good that they produce, and allows factors to be used in the industry that pays the most. 6. Only two countries are modeled: Home and Foreign. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-3 What an economy can produce? • When there is more than one factor of production, the opportunity cost in production is no longer constant and the PPF is no longer a straight line. Why? • Let’s expand the Ricardian model to include two factors of production, labor (L) and tanah (T). aTC = hectares of tanah (land) used to produce one m2 of cloth aLC = hours of labor used to produce one m2 of cloth aTF = hectares of tanah (land) used for one calorie of food aLF = hours of labor used to produce one calorie of food L = total amount of labor services available for production T = total amount of tanah (land) available for production Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-4 • Production possibilities are influenced by both land and labor (requirements): aTF QF + aTC QC ≤ T Tanah required for each unit of food production Total units of food production Tanah required for each unit of cloth production aLF QF + aLC QC ≤ L Labor required for each unit of food production Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Total amount of tanah resources Total units of cloth production Total amount of labor resources Labor required for each unit of cloth production 4-5 • Assume that cloth production is labor intensive and food production is tanah intensive. • For instance, Cloth: aLC = 4 hours of labor aTC = 1 hectare of tanah Food: aLF = 2 hours of labor aTF = 2 hectares of tanah To measure factor intensity, it is not the absolute amount of labor and tanah used, but their ratio. Labor intensity (Cloth) = aLC / aTC = 4/1 = 4 Labor intensity (Food) = aLF / aTF = 2/2 = 1 Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-6 Since aLC / aTC > aLF / aTF We say that cloth production is labor intensive. Food production, on the other hand, is: Tanah intensity (Cloth) = aTC / aLC = 1/4 = 0.25 Tanah intensity (Food) = aTF / aLF = 2/2= 1 Since aTF / aLF > aTC / aLC, we say that food production is tanah intensive. • This assumption of factor intensity influences the slope of the PPF. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-7 Fig. 4-1: The PPF Without Factor Substitution Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-8 Tanah: When QC = 0, aTF QF + aTC QC = T aTF QF = T When QF = 0, QF = T/aTF aTC QC = T QC = T/aTC Assume T = 16 hectares of tanah, aTC = 1, aTF = 2, Then Slope of PPF QF = 16/2 = 8 QC = 16/1 = 16 = ΔQF / ΔQC = (T/aTF) ÷ (T/aTC) = aTC /aTF = 1 /2 = 0.5 Slope = Opportunity Cost of Cloth in terms of Food Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-9 Labor: When QC = 0, aLF QF + aLC QC = L aLF QF = L When QF = 0, QF = L/aLF aLC QC = L QC = L/aLC Assume L = 40 hours of labor, aLC = 4, aLF = 2, Then Slope of PPF QF = 40/2 = 20 QC = 40/4 = 10 = ΔQF / ΔQC = (L/aLF) ÷ (L/aLC) = aLC /aLF = 4 /2 = 2 Slope = Opportunity Cost of Cloth in terms of Food Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-10 Fig. 4-1: The PPF Without Factor Substitution (Numerical Example) 20 Slope = 2 8 Slope = 0.5 10 Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 16 4-11 • If tanah could not be substituted for labor or vice versa, the PPF would be defined by the two resource constraints. • The PPF for this economy is the kinked line shown in blue. Why? • The economy can’t use more than the available supply of labor or tanah (in our example, T = 16 hectares of tanah, L = 40 hours of labor). When QC = 0, how much QF can be produced? 8 or 20 units? To produce 1 calorie of food, 2 hours of labor (aLF) and 2 hectares of tanah (aTF) is required. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-12 How about 8 calories of food? T = 16, L = 16. ✔ How about 20 calories of food? T = 40, L = 40. ✗ When QF = 0, how much QC can be produced? 10 or 16 units? To produce 1 m2 of cloth, 4 hours of labor (aLC) and 1 hectare of tanah (aTC) is required. How about 10 m2 of cloth? T = 10, L = 40 ✔ How about 16 m2 of cloth? T = 16, L = 64 ✗ To reiterate, due to the constraints of L and T, the PPF is the kinked line shown in blue. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-13 • The opportunity cost of producing cloth in terms of food is not constant. • The opportunity cost rises as the economy’s mix of production shifts toward cloth: It is low (0.5) when the economy produces less cloth and more food. It is high (2) when the economy produces more cloth and less food. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-14 • The blue kinked PPF line does not allow the substitution of tanah for labor in production or vice versa. Unit factor requirements are constant along each line segment of the PPF. In our example, Food: 2L, 2T; Cloth: 4L, 1T. • If producers can substitute one input for another in the production process, then the PPF becomes curved (bowed shaped). For example, to produce the same amount of cloth, many workers could work on a small plot of tanah (4L, 1T) or a few workers could work on a large plot of tanah (2L, 2T). Unit factor requirements can vary at every quantity of cloth and food that could be produced. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-15 Fig. 4-2: The PPF with Factor Substitution Still, the opportunity cost of cloth in terms of food rises as the economy produces more cloth and less food. Bowed Shaped Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-16 What an economy does produce? • The PPF describes what an economy can produce, but to determine what the economy does produce, we must determine the prices of goods. • In general, the economy should produce at the point that maximizes the value of production, V: V = PCQC + PFQF where PC is the price of cloth and PF is the price of food. • Define an isovalue line as a line representing a constant value of production, V. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-17 V = PCQC + PFQF Since the PPF is plotted with QF on the y-axis, and QC on the x-axis, we will specify the equation of the isovalue in terms of QF. PFQF = V – PCQC QF = V/PF – (PC /PF)QC The slope of an isovalue line is –(PC /PF), i.e. the relative price of cloth. The economy produces at the point that maximizes V. Q is the point that the PPF touches the highest possible isovalue line. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-18 Fig. 4-3: Prices and Production At Q, the slope of the PPF equals – (PC /PF), so the opportunity cost of cloth equals the relative price of cloth. In other words, the trade-off in production equals the trade-off according to market prices. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-19 What determines inputs combination (tanah versus labor)? The role of factor prices • When producers can substitute one input for another in the production process, then the PPF becomes bowed shaped (see slide 16). • In our example, to produce one calorie of food, farmers use 2L, 2T. • A two-factor model allows farmers to use different mix of inputs. For instance, 4L, 1T. • Figure 4-4 shows different combinations of labor and tanah in producing one calorie of food. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-20 Fig. 4-4: Input Combinations in Food Production Unit factor requirements of tanah and labor are not constant in the Heckscher-Ohlin model Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-21 • Producers may choose different amounts of factors of production (labor and tanah) to produce cloth or food. • Their choice depends on the wage rate (w) for labor, and the rental rate (r) for tanah. • As w increases relative to r (w/r ), producers are willing to use less labor and more tanah (T/L ). • This implies a positive relationship between wagerental ratio (w/r) and tanah-labor ratio (T/L). See CC and FF in Figure 4-5. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-22 Fig. 4-5: Factor Prices and Input Choices The graph shows that, at any given w/r, food uses more tanah relative to cloth. This is what we have assumed earlierfood production is tanah-intensive and cloth production is laborintensive (see slide 6). Do note that a good cannot be both tanah- and laborintensive. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-23 The relationship between factor prices and goods prices • In competitive markets, the price of a good should be reduced to the cost of production. • The cost of production, in turn, depends on the factor prices (w and r). • We have earlier assumed that cloth is labor-intensive and food is tanah-intensive. • An increase in the wages of labor (w) should affect the price of cloth (PC) more than the price of food (PF). w w/r PC > PF , PC/PF Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-24 • An increase in the renting rate of land (r) should affect the price of food (PF) more than the price of cloth (PC). r w/r PF > PC , PC/PF • With competition, changes in w/r are therefore directly related to changes in PC /PW . • In fact, there is a positive relationship between w/r and PC /PF w/r PC/PF w/r PC/PF Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-25 Fig. 4-6: Factor Prices and Goods Prices The positive relationship between goods prices and factor prices was clarified in a classic paper by Stolper and Samuelson (1941). Stolper-Samuelson theorem: if the relative price of a good increases (say PC), then the price of the factor used intensively in the production of that good increases (in this case, wage w as cloth is laborintensive), while the price of the other factor decreases (in this case, renting rate r). For details, click this website. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-26 Goods Prices, Factor Prices and Input Choices • It is possible to put Figure 4-5 (see slide 23, factor prices-input choices) and Figure 4-6 (see slide 26, goods prices- factor prices) together. • By putting these 2 diagrams together, Figure 7 shows the links between goods prices and input choices. • When good prices = (PC /PF)1, it implies that factor prices = (w/r)1, and input choices for cloth and food will be (TC/LC)1 and (TF/LF)1 respectively. • If the relative price of cloth rises to (PC /PF)2, the factor prices must rise to (w/r)2. This will cause the input choices for both cloth and food to rise to (TC/LC)2 and (TF/LF)2, respectively. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-27 Fig. 4-7: From Goods Prices to Input Choices Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-28 Goods Prices and Income Distribution • We can also see from Figure 4-7 that when the relative price of goods changes, it will affect the distribution of income. • For instance, an increase in the relative price of cloth, PC /PF, is predicted to: w/r (because cloth is labor-intensive), hence raising the income of workers (wages w) relative to that of landowners (rental r). T/L (because producers are willing to use less labor and more tanah). In this case, the marginal productivity of labor in both industries , the marginal productivity of tanah in both industries . Note: The marginal productivity of a factor typically decreases when the level of that factor used in production increases. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-29 In a competitive economy, factors of production (labor and tanah) are paid their marginal product. Real wage = marginal productivity of labor Real rental = marginal productivity of tanah When the marginal productivity of labor in both industries , it implies that the real income of workers (hence higher purchasing power of worker). When the marginal productivity of tanah in both industries , it implies that the real income of landowners (hence lower purchasing power of landowners). Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-30 How does an economy allocate its resources? • An economy must fully employ its resources- labor and tanah. • The allocation of resources determines the maximum level of output for cloth and food (on the PPF). • A convenient way is to use a “box diagram” like Figure 4-8. • Width of box = total supply of labor (for cloth & food) Height of box = total supply of tanah (for cloth & food) Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-31 Fig. 4-8: The Allocation of Resources Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-32 How do we determine the intersection point 1? • To do that, we must know the input choices, that is the ratio of tanah to labor (T/L). • Cloth Production: TC/LC determines the slope of OCC. Food Production: TF/LF determines the slope of OFF. Note that OFF is steeper than OCC, because food uses more tanah relative to cloth (food is tanah-intensive, see slide 23). Resource Allocation Point: OCC = OFF (Point 1) Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-33 How do levels of output change when the economy’s resources change? • Once we determine the allocation of resources, we can determine the output levels for cloth and food. • The next question is how these outputs change when the economy’s resources change. • To address this, we will see what happens when the supply of tanah is increased (the box is taller now). • Assume that the goods prices are fixed (the slopes TC/LC and TF/LF remain the same) and the labor supply are fixed (the box has the same width). Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-34 Fig. 4-9: An Increase in the Supply of Land Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-35 • At the new intersection point 2, Cloth Production: Labor Tanah (Output ) Food Production: Labor Tanah (Output ) • Holding output prices constant, when the supply of tanah , the output of food that uses tanah intensively (and the output of cloth ). This biased expansion is called the Rybczynski effect. The output of food rises more than proportionately to the increase in land supply. For example, if land supply by 10%, food output might by 15 or 20%. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-36 Fig. 4-10: Resources and Production Possibilities To see how an increase in tanah affects the economy’s output, we will use the PPF. When supply of tanah = TT1, the economy produces at point 1, where the PPF touches the highest possible isovalue line with slope –PC/PF (see slides 18-19). At point 1, Cloth Production = Q Food Production = Q Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1 C 1 F 4-37 When supply of tanah , the PPF will shift out to TT2, indicating that the economy could produce more food and cloth. Since food is tanah-intensive, the outward shift of PPF is much larger in the direction of food. Holding output prices constant (the slope –PC/PF remains unchanged), the new production point is at 2. At point 2, Food Production to Q 2 Cloth Production to Q F 2 C Check this conclusion with slide 36! Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-38 • The biased expansion of PPF is the key to understanding how differences in resources give rise to international trade. An increase in tanah supply expands PPF disproportionately in the direction of food production (since food is tanah-intensive) An increase in labor supply expands PPF disproportionately in the direction of cloth production (since cloth is labor-intensive) • An economy is predicted to be relatively efficient at producing goods that are intensive in the factors of production in which the country is relatively well endowed. For instance, an economy with a high ratio of land to labor will be relatively efficient at producing food. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-39 International trade in the Heckscher-Ohlin model Further assumptions in H-O model: • There are 2 countries that engage in international trade: Home and Foreign. • Both countries have the same consumer tastes (hence identical relative demands for food and cloth). • They have the same technology, with each factor of production (labor, tanah) yielding the same amount of output in both countries. • The only difference between Home and Foreign is in their resources [Recall that in H-O model, differences in resources give rise to international trade]. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-40 • Further assume T*/L* > T/L: Foreign has an abundant amount of tanah (tanah-abundant) Home has an abundant amount of labor services (laborabundant) • Note that abundance is defined in terms of ratio and not in absolute quantities (see slide 6). Foreign has 80 million workers and 200 million acres of tanah. Home has 20 million workers and 20 million acres of tanah. In absolute term, Foreign is abundance in both labor and tanah. In relative term, T/L = 20/20= 1; T*/L* = 200/80 = 2.5 Foreign is tanah-abundant, Home is labor-abundant Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-41 • From slide 39, an economy is relatively efficient at producing goods that are intensive in the factors of production in which the country is relatively well endowed. • Home: Labor-abundant, Cloth: Labor-intensive Home will be relatively efficient at producing cloth. • Foreign: Tanah-abundant, Food: Tanah-intensive Foreign will be relatively efficient at producing food. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-42 What happen to international trade? relative prices with • The RD curve is downward sloping, reflecting substitution effects. • Relative demand of cloth is the quantity of cloth demanded in all countries (QC + Q*C) relative to the quantity of food demanded (QF + Q*F) in all countries. • As the price of cloth relative to the price of food rises (PC/PF), consumers in all countries will tend to purchase less cloth and more food, so that the relative quantity of cloth demanded falls. • We have assumed earlier that both countries have the same consumer tastes, hence they have similar RD curve (see slide 40). Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-43 • At each relative price (PC/PF), Home will produce a higher ratio of cloth to food than the foreign country. Home will have a higher relative supply of cloth than the Foreign Home RS curve will be to the right of Foreign Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-44 Fig. 4-11: Trade Leads to a Convergence of Relative Prices No Trade Home equilibrium will be at point 1. Foreign equilibrium will be at point 3. 3 2 1 In the absence of trade, PC/PF is higher in Foreign. With Trade PC/PF will converge with a new world relative price. The new relative price is between the two countries’ pretrade prices (say at point 2). Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-45 How does the convergence of relative prices translate into a pattern of international trade? • Like the Ricardian model, the Heckscher-Ohlin model predicts a convergence of relative prices when countries engage in international trade (see slide 45). • With trade, the relative price of cloth is predicted to rise in the labor-abundant Home (from 1 to 2) The rise in the relative price of cloth leads to a rise in the relative production of cloth and a fall in relative consumption of cloth Home becomes an exporter of cloth and an importer of food. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-46 • With trade, the relative price of cloth is predicted to fall (from 3 to 2), implying that the relative price of food rises in the tanah-abundant Foreign. The rise in the relative price of food leads to a rise in the relative production of food and a fall in relative consumption of food Foreign becomes an exporter of food and an importer of cloth • An economy is predicted to export goods whose production is intensive in factors with which the economy is abundantly endowed. Home: Labor-abundant EXPORT Cloth (Labor-intensive) Foreign: Tanah-abundant EXPORT intensive) Food (Tanah- This proposition is called the Heckscher-Ohlin theorem Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-47 How does the convergence of relative prices affect income distribution? • International trade leads to convergence of relative prices ( see slide 45). • Changes in relative prices will affect the relative earnings of labor and tanah. • With trade, the relative price of cloth is predicted to rise in the labor-abundant Home (see slide 45) A rise in the price of cloth raises the purchasing power of workers (laborers), but lowers the purchasing power of land owners. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-48 • With trade, the relative price of cloth is predicted to fall, implying that the relative price of food rises in the tanah-abundant Foreign (see slide 45) A rise in the price of food raises the purchasing power of land owners, but lowers the purchasing power of workers (laborers) The model predicts that owners of abundant factors gain with trade, but owners of scarce factors lose. Home: Labor Abundant Laborers Gain Landowners Lose Foreign: Tanah Abundant Landowners Gain Laborers Lose Unlike Ricardian model, not everyone gains from trade in H-O model. 4-49 Case Study: Trade and Income Distribution • Over the last 40 years, income inequality has increased in the U.S., as wages of unskilled workers have grown slowly compared to those of skilled workers. • At the same time, countries like South Korea, Mexico, and China have exported to the U.S. goods intensive in unskilled labor (e.g., clothing, shoes, toys, assembled goods). • Many observers attribute the growing income inequality in U.S. (abundantly endowed with highly skilled workers, and low-skilled labor is correspondingly scarce) to the growth of trade with these NIEs. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-50 • The Heckscher-Ohlin model predicts that owners of abundant factors will gain from trade and owners of scarce factors will lose from trade. • But little evidence supporting this prediction exists. Here are 3 reasons given for the failure: 1. According to the model, a change in the distribution of income occurs through changes in output prices, but there is no evidence of a change in the prices of skill-intensive goods relative to prices of unskilled-intensive goods. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-51 2. According to the model, if wages of skilled workers are rising and those of unskilled workers are falling in the skill-abundant country (like U.S), then the reverse should be happening in the unskilled labor abundant countries (i.e. wages of unskilled workers should increase relative to wages of skilled labor): But this is not the case for Mexico, a country supposed to be abundant in unskilled workers. • Wages of skilled labor have increased more rapidly in Mexico than wages of unskilled labor. 3. Trade is a small fraction of the U.S. economy, so its effects on U.S. prices and wages prices should be small. In other words, the H-O model can still be correct. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-52 How does the convergence of relative prices lead to equalization of input (factor) prices? • Unlike the Ricardian model, the Heckscher-Ohlin model predicts that input (factor) prices will be equalized among countries that trade (wages and rental will be the same in Home and Foreign). • From Figure 4-6 (see slide 26), given the goods prices (PC/PF), we can determine w/r. • With trade, relative goods prices converged in both countries (see slide 45). • If Home and Foreign face the same relative prices, they will also have the same factor prices (due to the positive relationship). Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-53 Case Study: Equalization of Factor Prices • In the real world, factor prices are not equal across countries (see Table 4-1 for differences in wages). • Why the H-O model does not give an accurate prediction? Look at the underlying assumptions. 1. The model assumes that trading countries produce the same goods (cloth and food), so that prices for those goods will equalize, but countries may produce different set of goods. 2. The model also assumes that trading countries have the same technology (see slide 40), but different technologies could affect the productivities of factors and therefore the wages/rates paid to these factors. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-54 Table 4-1: Comparative International Wage Rates (United States = 100) Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-55 3. The model also ignores trade barriers (e.g., tariffs, import quotas) and transportation costs, which may prevent output prices and factor prices from equalizing. 4. The model predicts outcomes for the long run, but after an economy liberalizes trade, factors of production may not quickly move to the industries that intensively use abundant factors. In the short run, the productivity of factors will be determined by their use in their current industry, so that their wage/rate may vary across industries. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-56 How does international trade expand the economy’s consumption possibilities? • International trade makes it possible for the mix of cloth and food consumed differ from the mix produced. • However, a country cannot spend more than it earns. • Hence, the total value of consumption = total value of production, i.e. PCDC + PFDF = PCQC + PFQF Consumption of cloth Consumption of food Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-57 Example PC = $2 QC = 950 units QF = 100 units PF = $5 DC = 200 units DF = 400 units QC > DC =(Production > Consumption, export cloth 750) QF < DF =(Production < Consumption, import food 300) Total value of Production = Total Value of Consumption Check whether you can get 2400! Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-58 • Rearranging the above equation will yield the budget constraint: PCDC + PFDF = PCQC + PFQF PFDF – PFQF = PCQC - PCDC PF(DF –QF ) = PC(QC – DC) (DF – QF) = (PC /PF) (QC – DC) Food imports Relative price of cloth exports Cloth exports This equation is the budget constraint for an economy, and it has a slope of – (PC /PF) Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-59 Fig. 4-12: The Budget Constraint for a Trading Economy In the absence of trade, consumption would be a point on the PPF (implying the economy would have to produce what it consumed) Point 1 indicates that a country can always afford to consume what it produces. However, with trade, a country need not consume only the goods that it produces (not necessarily a point on PPF). With trade, the economy can consume at any point on its budget constraint line. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-60 Fig. 4-14: Trade Expands the Consumption Possibilities No Trade Economy’s production and consumption were at the PPF, say point 2. With Trade The economy can consume at any point on its budget constraint. The portion of the budget constraint in the colored region consists of feasible post-trade consumption choices with consumption of both goods higher than at the pre-trade point 2. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-61 • Notice that this result does not depend on the assumption that pre-trade production and consumption was at point 2. • Except when pre-trade production was at point 1, there is always a part of the budget constraint that allows consumption of more of both goods. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-62 Empirical evidence on the Heckscher-Ohlin Model • Tests on the U.S. data U.S. is the most capital-abundant country in the world (higher capital-labor ratios) One would expect U.S. would be an exporter of capitalintensive goods and an importer of labor-intensive goods However, Leontief found that U.S. exports were less capitalintensive than U.S. imports (Leontief paradox) Figure 4.2 illustrates the paradox, where U.S. exports were produced with a lower capital-labor ratio than U.S. imports (see line 3). Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-63 Table 4-2: Factor Content of U.S. Exports and Imports for 1962 Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-64 • Tests on global data Bowen, Leamer, and Sveikauskas tested the HeckscherOhlin model on data from 27 countries and confirmed the Leontief paradox on an international level. • Tests on manufacturing data between low/middle income countries and high income countries. This data lends more support to the theory. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-65 In Week 3, we learned that the empirical evidence broadly supports the Ricardian model (i.e., countries will export goods in which their labor is especially productive). However, most international economists regard the Ricardian model as too limited. The H-O model is well accepted, as it allows a simultaneous treatment of trade pattern (see slides 4647) and income distribution (see slides 48-52). However, the empirical evidence for the H-O model is less conclusive. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-66 Summary 1. Substitution of factors used in the production process is represented by a curved PPF. When an economy produces a low quantity of a good, the opportunity cost of producing that good is low and the marginal productivity of resources used to produce that good is high. When an economy produces a high quantity of a good, the opportunity cost of producing that good is high and the marginal productivity of resources used to produce that good is low. 2. When an economy produces the most it can from its resources, the opportunity cost of producing a good equals the relative price of that good in markets. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-67 3. If the relative price of a good increases, then the real wage or real renting rate of the factor used intensively in the production of that good is predicted to increase, while the real wage and real lending/renting rates of other factors of production are predicted to decrease. 4. If output prices remain constant as the amount of a factor of production increases, then the supply of the good that uses this factor intensively is predicted to increase, and the supply of other goods is predicted to decrease. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-68 5. An economy is predicted to export goods that are intensive in its abundant factors of production and import goods that are intensive in its scarce factors of production. 6. The Heckscher-Ohlin model predicts that relative output prices and factor prices will equalize, neither of which occurs in the real world. 7. The model predicts that owners of abundant factors gain, but owners of scarce factors lose with trade. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-69 8. A country as a whole is predicted to be better off with trade (expanded consumption possibilities), even though owners of scarce factors are predicted to be worse off without compensation. 9. Empirical support of the Heckscher-Ohlin model is weak except for cases involving trade between high income countries and low/middle income countries. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-70