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Development of Broadband in Thailand Dr Supot Tiarawut Director Telecommunication Research and Industrial Development Institute, Office of NTC TCT Seminar on “Future Communication Technologies” January 29, 2010 Miracle Grand Hotel, Bangkok Contents • • • • • • • Broadband vs. Economy What’s in the ranking? Current market status Technology review Issues in broadband expansion ICT Master Plan (2009-2013) Proposed strategy Broadband vs. Economy • Obama's stimulus package of US$7.2 billion for broadband investment • Australian government invest US$3.1 billion in national broadband network. Telecom investment and GDP Denotes 1-way relationship Source: TRIDI Denotes 2-way relationship TRIDI's study of Telecom investment and GDP shows positive causal relationship between telecom investment and GDP growth What’s in the Ranking? Individual Usage Rank Country Thailand Viet Nam Singapore Malaysia Indonesia Philippines Korea Japan China 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 64 81 9 43 77 57 1 6 61 65 79 18 31 84 72 15 12 55 58 82 12 39 81 70 2 10 47 61 91 14 44 83 80 5 19 63 67 92 10 42 90 77 11 22 80 70 92 18 45 97 88 15 22 80 69 90 7 45 107 91 20 13 83 Source: Global Information Technology Report 2009 – 2010, WEF 1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 Millions Mobile Market Mobile Sub. 64,049,329 10% 60 8% 40 6% 20 4% 2% 0% Source: NTC Growth rate 2.33 % Fixed-line Market กรุงเทพ และปริ มณฑล ต่างจังหวัด 8,000,000 6,000,000 Provinces 3.56 M 4,000,000 BMA 3.73 M 2,000,000 Total 7.29 M 4Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 Source: NTC Internet Users 16,100,000 17,500,000 15,000,000 12,500,000 10,000,000 7,500,000 5,000,000 Source: NECTEC 2551 2547 2548 2549 2550 2542 2543 2544 2545 2546 2537 2538 2539 2540 2541 - 2534 2535 2536 2,500,000 Average Growth 30% per year Broadband Subscribers Broadband per household 1,804,152 2,000,000 1,750,000 1,500,000 1,250,000 1,000,000 750,000 500,000 250,000 - 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 4Q03 Source: NTC 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 9.92% of Household Broadband/Available Line Broadband line Available line 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 75.24% 24.76% 4Q03 Source: NTC 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 International Bandwidth International Bandwidth 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 Source: NECTEC 3Q09 1Q09 3Q08 3Q07 1Q08 3Q06 1Q07 1Q06 3Q05 1Q05 1Q04 3Q04 1Q03 3Q03 3Q02 1Q02 1Q01 3Q01 3Q00 - 1Q00 10,000 Thailand Market Status • Population 65 • Fixed-line subscribers 7.0 • Mobile subscribers 64.7 • Internet users 18.1 • Broadband subscribers 1.9 (as of Q3-09) million million million million million Technology review: in context of Thailand • Fixed broadband – FTTX – xDSL – PLC Technology review: in context of Thailand • FTTH – High speed access to homes and businesses – Meets customers’ needs on bandwidth growth – However, • • • • Fiber plant rollout is expensive It takes times to build coverage Existing fiber is far from customers Not in the spotlight (of Thai operators) Technology review: in context of Thailand • xDSL – Over 1.8 M subscribers – 3-12 Mbps service is now available – Not all customers can get 12 Mbps service – Many customers only get 1 Mbps because of the distance from DSLAM. Technology review: in context of Thailand • PLC – Many trials were performed with electrical authorities. – The technology still has many flaws. Technology review: in context of Thailand • Wireless broadband – 3G / HSPA – WiMAX – LTE – Wi-Fi Technology review: in context of Thailand • 3G / HSPA – Most wanted technology in Thailand – Operators are ready either to upgrade their network to 3G or invest and build new wireless network Technology review: in context of Thailand • WiMAX – Anticipated as a contender for 3G and LTE – Not getting support from key service providers worldwide – Business model for WiMAX is not clear. Technology review: in context of Thailand • LTE – Gaining support from operators worldwide – Equipments and handsets still expensive – Thailand: not suitable for mass adoption in the near future – cost of handset beyond reach of most people Technology review: in context of Thailand • Wi-Fi – Key user of ISM and U-NII band – Most popular indoor access mode for broadband services Technology review: BIG picture • Fixed and wireless together provide access to the same services for consumers. Application Wi-Fi ADSL FTTH HSPA WiMAX Technology review: BIG picture • Customers can use facebook, Gmail, twitter, IM, video streaming … from their computers, phones, ipods or other devices. Issues in Broadband Expansion (1) • Coverage – Fixed broadband stands at 10% of household – Upper limit at fixed line penetration of 11% – Mobile networks cover many more subscribers • Speed – Access speed of ADSL for most sub. is limited to 3 Mbps – Current access with 2G is limited in speed and far from ubiquitous Issues in Broadband Expansion(2) • Technology – Immediate solution: going for 3G – For longer term • considering FTTH roll-out as bandwidth and speed requirement grows. • Migration from 3G to LTE Issues in Broadband Expansion (3) • USO – Limited roll-out – Service definition changing to include data/internet – Challenges to expand service coverages • IT Literacy • Affordability ICT Master Plan (2009-2013) Broadband Target • Provide at least 4 Mbps access to households in major cities in every province • Provide access to 50% household coverage to the rest areas • Provide at least 10 Mbps access to every high school • Provide at least 4 Mbps access to every community’s learning/ health-care centers Investment in Telecommunication Total Annual Investment in Telecommunication (Millions US$) Country 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Value % GDP Value % GDP Value % GDP Value % GDP Value % GDP Thailand 401.0 0.3 508.0 0.3 657.0 0.4 769.0 0.4 na na Korea 1,569.0 0.3 5,369.0 0.8 5,675.0 0.7 10,222.0 0.8 na na Japan 20,422.0 0.5 23,199.0 0.5 24,450.0 0.5 17,836.0 0.4 na na China 26,782.0 1.6 26,559.0 1.4 25,601.0 1.1 27,768.0 1.0 29,969.0 0.9 Sources: World Telecommunication/ICT Indicator Database 12th Edition 2008 Proposed Strategy • Accelerate licensing of 3G and beyond, to stimulate mobile internet • Implement broadband internet to schools with FTTX, as part of a new economic stimulus package • Utilize 3G/WiMax networks to provide USO, including voice and basic data services • Incentive and stimulus for implementing FTTX Thank you for your kind attention