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Commodity Prices: Running out of Everything • OIL: OPEC 1973 – 74 • Gold: 1973 – 1980 • Copper, zinc, nickel, etc: 1973 – 74 • Anchovies: 1974 Anchovies? • El Niño Southern Oscillation: ENSO. • Cold water off Peru => plenty anchovies. • Warm water off Peru => dearth of anchovies. • Cold water off Peru => warm water off Indonesia & vice-versa. • So what? Cowboys Don’t Eat Anchovies • But cattle do, mixed in with their feed. • Anchovies => intense protein input. Great for red beef. • Anchovies scarce & expensive => substitutes (soybeans) used. • Now (1974) soybeans scarce & expensive. Asians Like Our Soybeans • US supply rises. • Carter imposes embargo. • Asians switch demand to less expensive palm oil. • US loses another export market. • Well, not totally & not for good. ENSO • Naturally occurring phenomenon. Irregular but never ending cycle. • Related to monsoon, typhoons, tropical storms, fish stocks, Peru’s GDP, other GDPs, price of meats & soybeans, etc. Hurricanes • Port of New Orleans (PONO) at the mouth of the Mississippi. • Largest port in USA, 4th largest in the world. • US Midwest agriculture exports flow out through PONO. • PONO not seriously damaged this time, but there will be next times. Katrina & Rita • Is there something like ENSO in the Caribbean & Gulf? • No, but there is plenty of warm water. • Is all this related to global warming?