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Alan Auerbach University of California, Berkeley SIEPR, September 24, 2012 Cumulative Real Growth (Percent) Since 2007:4 Since 2009:2 GDP 1.8 6.8 Consumption 2.9 6.5 -6.7 17.7 -31.3 7.8 0.9 -4.3 8.9 -2.7 Nondefense 15.2 4.1 State and local -4.8 -6.7 Nonresidential Fixed Investment Residential Investment Government Federal National defense Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Employment Growth Since February 2010 Thousands Percent 4,056 3.1 4,627 4.3 Government -571 -2.5 Federal -67 -2.3 -504 -2.6 Total Nonfarm Private State and Local Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Cumulative Legislative Changes in Spending Since January 2009 (Billions of Dollars) Fiscal Year Cumulative Legislative Changes Defense Nondefense Discretionary Stimulus (ARRA) Unemployment Insurance Medicare Tax Credits Debt Service All other Source: Congressional Budget Office 2009 166 25 13 120 0 0 0 1 7 2010 398 61 51 219 35 0 0 6 25 2011 414 85 59 126 60 11 0 21 52 2012 338 87 34 46 48 15 36 44 28